11–20 of 367 posts
You've been on HN for 13 years, and this is your first post in 7. Welcome back! Can you provide any context regarding why this article made the cut, when nothing did for 7 years? Sorry if it's a bit off topic; it's just an interesting circumstance, and I'm curious.
To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our inability to manufacture critical components was going to kill us. Kind of literally: AFAIK, the last LCD panel manufacturer in the US closed around then and we could no longer manufacture LCD for our military vehicles... (Even if this anecdote is untrue, the point remains valid...) I argued that, even in the presence of free trade, a country should have the ability to tariff imports to the extent that that country could maintain a 25% (or something) domestic market share.
"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…
I wouldn’t say globalisation is dead more that it’s going to be more balanced going forward with local concerns.
"Instead of drawing down our gold reserves, however, we gradually draw down our domestic manufacturing base and it gets replaced piece-by-piece in foreign countries." To me, this is the money shot. I hadn't seen this expressed before and it makes perfect sense. I'm baffled that we (the US) caused this to happen to the US. I'm (unhappily) registered Republican but I argued vociferously to a Dem friend in 2000 that our…
How much debt can we accumulate before entities stop buying our bonds and treasuries?
"As of this year, the US Federal Reserve (blue line) now owns more Treasuries than all foreign central banks combined [..]"
So, if your debt is to the Federal Reserve, how much debt can you accumulate before it's too much? Does the question even makes sense?
> More troublesome, the inherent flaw of having the global reserve currency, in a theme that goes back to economist Robert Triffin from over half a century ago, is that in order to maintain the global reserve currency, the country must supply the world with its currency via structural deficits in one form or another. That "structural deficit" means allowing manufacturing to move overseas. The trade war is a distracti…
Not only institutions, but those who are in power (government) who have risk-tolerant positions in the market with nothing to gain but their own discomfort and retirement.
Which country would benefit from a weaker dollar? Germany wants to sell their cars. China their phones. If Americans can't afford them any more, then a big market would disappear.
Lyn Alden has become my favorite macroeconomist through the Covid crisis. I bought a bunch of puts in February 2020, they went way up in March till the Fed stepped in and then went down. I went looking for answers on how to understand macroeconomics and Alden has had a lot of interesting takes on it.
Which country would benefit from a weaker dollar? Germany wants to sell their cars. China their phones. If Americans can't afford them any more, then a big market would disappear.