How the novel coronavirus has evolved • Hacker News Board

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#101

Post by rolph » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:08 PM UTC

brian_cloutier wrote: post #37

Izkata wrote: post #12

So it's finally okay to say there's multiple strains with different infectiousness and (possibly) severity? Back in February-ish (I forget exactly when), we had confirmed community spread in Washington (West-coast state in the US), with the belief that it had been spreading for weeks and no one noticed, because of how few cases there were, and no bump in hospitalizations. This was likely the Wuhan strain, which likew…

Nature has a decent article on this: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6 Apparently we have little idea whether D614G is more infectious but that is hard to believe given that it has so thoroughly outcompeted other strains.

the D614G strain has a loose binding domain in its spike.

this modifies what was a specific key into a lockpick. this allows the virus to bind to a number of allelic versions of ACE2 rather than one or few specifics. thus promiscuous binding.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#102

Post by hef19898 » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:24 PM UTC

darkerside wrote: post #83

hef19898 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That trope again. First, that's spilled milk, even it were true, and thus is a pointless discussion. Second, local Chinese authorities screwed up. That was followed by one of the quickest, strictest and most effective reactions. As for the international response, that could be based on cases in Korea and Japan, for example. Europe reacted quick enough in Spring, after Italy waited a couple of days to long. Which is n…

There's truth in this, but you need to ask, why did local officials screw up? And it's probably related to the way mistakes are treated by central government. So, even if central government was not responsible for the individual actions early in the pandemic, they set the framework for how they interact with local governments, and thus still bear responsibility.

You want examples outside of China of more serious screw ups, once the real seriousness was known?

Ok, then. Bavaria had beer festivals in February and March, Austria kept Ischgl open and infected most of Europe. Other regions let the German carnival running. Leipzig had Champions League match. All in Feb and March. Just from top of my head.

At least local Chinese authorities still had the benefit of doubt. And did we already forget how fast they built hospitals and how many people the tested?

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#103

Post by lvs » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:37 PM UTC

CyberDildonics wrote: post #67

riccia wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not questioning anything you wrote, but it would be interesting to know the strains of virus in people who acquired COVID in the mRNA vaccine trials. I imagine this is in the trial data but haven't seen it.

How many people actually acquired COVID in the mRNA vaccine trials?

In the BioNTech vaccine Phase 2/3, it was 50 any time after the first dose, but 11 after the second dose.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#104

Post by lvs » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

yumraj wrote: post #17

So which strain are the various vaccines targeting? Or are they multi strain vaccines like the flu vaccine?

The very first strain isolated in Wuhan, but the most prevalent S protein mutations in subsequent strains are fairly buried. None have yet been shown to affect immune recognition, as far as I know.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#105

Post by oarsinsync » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:42 PM UTC

jl2718 wrote: post #79

Antibodies mostly target the attachment heads of RNA viruses, which mutate very quickly to evade them. But that mutation also applies to its own reproductive mechanisms, like RNA polymerase, which degrades in the presence of evolutionary pressure from the immune system against the attachment proteins, so the latter strains become dormant because they lose reproductive integrity. It then takes conditions lacking an im…

> It seems to me that this involuntary spreading behavior is much more pronounced in humans than other mammals.

(Anecdotal) This may be why I laugh so hard each time the dog sneezes. It doesn’t happen often, and it’s hilarious when it does.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#106

Post by darkerside » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:44 PM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #102

darkerside wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's truth in this, but you need to ask, why did local officials screw up? And it's probably related to the way mistakes are treated by central government. So, even if central government was not responsible for the individual actions early in the pandemic, they set the framework for how they interact with local governments, and thus still bear responsibility.

You want examples outside of China of more serious screw ups, once the real seriousness was known? Ok, then. Bavaria had beer festivals in February and March, Austria kept Ischgl open and infected most of Europe. Other regions let the German carnival running. Leipzig had Champions League match. All in Feb and March. Just from top of my head. At least local Chinese authorities still had the benefit of doubt. And did w…

Yup, all screw ups. In my opinion, the scientific community should be held to a higher standard on this, but sure, you can judge them alongside the local beer festival I guess.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#107

Post by hef19898 » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:48 PM UTC

darkerside wrote: post #106

hef19898 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You want examples outside of China of more serious screw ups, once the real seriousness was known? Ok, then. Bavaria had beer festivals in February and March, Austria kept Ischgl open and infected most of Europe. Other regions let the German carnival running. Leipzig had Champions League match. All in Feb and March. Just from top of my head. At least local Chinese authorities still had the benefit of doubt. And did w…

Yup, all screw ups. In my opinion, the scientific community should be held to a higher standard on this, but sure, you can judge them alongside the local beer festival I guess.

Political screw ups. Scientist have been against all this from the beginning.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#108

Post by timbit42 » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:49 PM UTC

overgard wrote: post #91

This is why I get so frustrated with people justifying continued shutdowns "until it's cured by the vaccine". Almost every highly contagious virus mutates quickly. Same with bacteria. The cat is already out of the bag, even if we do manage to completely eradicate it it'll take years. (To be clear I'm not against virus control measures, I'm just frustrated with the flawed reasoning that all this will just go away when…

The virus hasn't yet mutated enough to make the vaccine not work against it.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#109

Post by Tainnor » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:50 PM UTC

dontTango wrote: post #55

chimprich wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > Since then, there have been documented reports of individuals being reinfected with different versions of the virus. > [...] But if the immunity really is strain-specific Reinfections have been recorded from different strains because it's much easier to demonstrate that someone has been reinfected with a new strain. If someone has been reinfected with the same strain then it is hard to distinguish that from an in…

People are really enjoying WFH and don't want it to end. It's important to keep the fear strong. Meanwhile, I am baffled we didn't prioritize n95(or kn95) masks. Well... It's government, I'm not that baffled A significantly more rational policy would have been to prioritize masks with filters and for the less than 1/12 of elderly people who live with younger generations, move them into a hotel room and pay for food d…

1. Risk groups are not just old people, but also include a lot of people (e.g. asthmatics) that are a central part of the work force. Not all of these can WFH, they might be working in supermarkets, etc.

2. Some people don't even know they are at risk especially when they are young.

3. You can't fully isolate old people anyway. That's why we continue to see infections in hospitals, nursing homes, etc.

4. Even if you managed to isolate all risk groups, the spread of covid19 without any restrictive measures would be extremely rapid. While only a small fraction of the rest of the population would become severely ill, a tiny fraction of a large population can still be huge and might be enough to overwhelm hospitals.

If it were as easy as you suggested, surely it would have been tried - at least somewhere on the planet.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#110

Post by overgard » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 6:51 PM UTC

timbit42 wrote: post #108

overgard wrote: post #91

This is why I get so frustrated with people justifying continued shutdowns "until it's cured by the vaccine". Almost every highly contagious virus mutates quickly. Same with bacteria. The cat is already out of the bag, even if we do manage to completely eradicate it it'll take years. (To be clear I'm not against virus control measures, I'm just frustrated with the flawed reasoning that all this will just go away when…

The virus hasn't yet mutated enough to make the vaccine not work against it.

We don't know that for sure, and it has 7 different (known) strains already. Why would this be any different than the flu in that regard?

Besides, we already know there are a lot of ridiculous anti-vaxxers out there who will refuse the vaccine regardless. And a lot of those people are elderly or at risk!

The longer this situation goes on, the less palatable shutting down huge chunks of society seems to me to be. If this is going to be endemic, which a lot of signs and common sense reasoning points to, then the management of the disease needs to change.