How the novel coronavirus has evolved • Hacker News Board

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#51

Post by animal531 » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 11:29 AM UTC

Izkata wrote: post #12

So it's finally okay to say there's multiple strains with different infectiousness and (possibly) severity? Back in February-ish (I forget exactly when), we had confirmed community spread in Washington (West-coast state in the US), with the belief that it had been spreading for weeks and no one noticed, because of how few cases there were, and no bump in hospitalizations. This was likely the Wuhan strain, which likew…

Around March I already saw some reports detailing the different strains of the time.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#52

Post by Lucasoato » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 11:32 AM UTC

blackrock wrote: post #44

Izkata wrote: post #12

So it's finally okay to say there's multiple strains with different infectiousness and (possibly) severity? Back in February-ish (I forget exactly when), we had confirmed community spread in Washington (West-coast state in the US), with the belief that it had been spreading for weeks and no one noticed, because of how few cases there were, and no bump in hospitalizations. This was likely the Wuhan strain, which likew…

Interesting premise. But why doesn’t anyone look at the bigger elephant in the room? Sometime in April 2019, reports of a mysterious illness started surfacing. They thought it was related to vaping products. [1] Then in July 2019, a respiratory illness hit a retirement home in Virginia, and killed a bunch of old people. [2] Then the Wuhan military games was in mid October 2019. Then China reported of an unknown pneum…

> And just conveniently blame China for being the origin of the virus, just because they were the first ones to detect it, and report it.

This is false, China has actively denied the existence of the virus until it was too late. The scientist who discovered it could have been a new kind of virus was blackmailed and threatened. The numbers China released were mostly false.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#53

Post by dtjohnnyb » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 11:36 AM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #38

What does everyone think of the idea that there is an 80/20 rule in play for Coronavirus? Specifically, 80% of the infections come from 20% of the infected. I’ve heard some hearsay about it, but nothing conclusive; I was hoping someone knew either way.

This nature paper was the best evidence I seen for this: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2923-3?

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#54

Post by herendin2 » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 11:37 AM UTC

graderjs wrote: post #46

sillysaurusx wrote: post #38

What does everyone think of the idea that there is an 80/20 rule in play for Coronavirus? Specifically, 80% of the infections come from 20% of the infected. I’ve heard some hearsay about it, but nothing conclusive; I was hoping someone knew either way.

I don't know either way about your question, but aren't these sort of power law dynamics common in everything? I don't think it would be surprising if that was the case with this "pandemic" nor would it make this virus special. Just like 90% of the content is created by 10% of the people in social media, or something like that.

It's important because focussing on that 20% might be far more efficient and effective

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#55

Post by dontTango » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 11:46 AM UTC

chimprich wrote: post #36

bostik wrote: post #25

Towards the end of the article is a particularly good nugget of information. > Since then, there have been documented reports of individuals being reinfected with different versions of the virus. Yes, reinfections have been extremely rare so far. But if the immunity really is strain-specific, the warnings about Covid becoming endemic in the global population should now carry a lot more weight. The virus will mutate.…

> > Since then, there have been documented reports of individuals being reinfected with different versions of the virus. > [...] But if the immunity really is strain-specific Reinfections have been recorded from different strains because it's much easier to demonstrate that someone has been reinfected with a new strain. If someone has been reinfected with the same strain then it is hard to distinguish that from an in…

People are really enjoying WFH and don't want it to end. It's important to keep the fear strong.

Meanwhile, I am baffled we didn't prioritize n95(or kn95) masks. Well... It's government, I'm not that baffled

A significantly more rational policy would have been to prioritize masks with filters and for the less than 1/12 of elderly people who live with younger generations, move them into a hotel room and pay for food delivery and care services.

All of this is cheaper and healthier than what was done.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#56

Post by adamjb » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 11:47 AM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #38

What does everyone think of the idea that there is an 80/20 rule in play for Coronavirus? Specifically, 80% of the infections come from 20% of the infected. I’ve heard some hearsay about it, but nothing conclusive; I was hoping someone knew either way.

Any disease that spreads in clusters will have its infections distributed in at least a similar way. Here's the best write up on that theme I've read: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overloo...

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#57

Post by hutzlibu » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 11:50 AM UTC

herendin2 wrote: post #54

graderjs wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know either way about your question, but aren't these sort of power law dynamics common in everything? I don't think it would be surprising if that was the case with this "pandemic" nor would it make this virus special. Just like 90% of the content is created by 10% of the people in social media, or something like that.

It's important because focussing on that 20% might be far more efficient and effective

Yeah, but this is known and taken into consideration, as far as I know.

Like health workers who visit lots of houses, gets tested often.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#58

Post by rozab » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 12:09 PM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #38

What does everyone think of the idea that there is an 80/20 rule in play for Coronavirus? Specifically, 80% of the infections come from 20% of the infected. I’ve heard some hearsay about it, but nothing conclusive; I was hoping someone knew either way.

There was comprehensive analysis done after the 2002 SARS outbreak and they basically came to this conclusion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superspreading_event

> Some cases of superspreading conform to the 80/20 rule, where approximately 20% of infected individuals are responsible for 80% of transmissions, although superspreading can still be said to occur when superspreaders account for a higher or lower percentage of transmissions.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#59

Post by riccia » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 12:11 PM UTC

someotherperson wrote: post #35

Since this will continue to be misunderstood, it's important to emphasise that the article explicitly mentions that there is 1. No evidence to support the idea of strains that have any impact on infection 2. No evidence to support the idea that the strains will resist the vaccines or weaken vaccine efficacy. This is not a "strain" in the sense of the flu, COVID-19 hasn't fundamentally changed in any meaningful way th…

Not questioning anything you wrote, but it would be interesting to know the strains of virus in people who acquired COVID in the mRNA vaccine trials. I imagine this is in the trial data but haven't seen it.

Re: How the novel coronavirus has evolved

#60

Post by Scarblac » Sat, Dec 12, 2020, 12:15 PM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #38

What does everyone think of the idea that there is an 80/20 rule in play for Coronavirus? Specifically, 80% of the infections come from 20% of the infected. I’ve heard some hearsay about it, but nothing conclusive; I was hoping someone knew either way.

Probably true, but I think it's because most infections happen in certain dangerous situations (an infected person being in a badly ventilated room with others for a while), not because of some feature of that infected person.