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And I was downvoted on HN for merely asking the question whether coronavirus could mutate: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24035686
Coronaviruses mutate slowly, and the majority of mutations chamge nothing in the way the virus mutates.
So far, out of all the strains, only one has been shown to modify it’s behaviour.
Back in February-ish (I forget exactly when), we had confirmed community spread in Washington (West-coast state in the US), with the belief that it had been spreading for weeks and no one noticed, because of how few cases there were, and no bump in hospitalizations. This was likely the Wuhan strain, which likewise had been spreading in Wuhan for at least a month and a half before it was detected.
On the flipside, when it reached Italy, it hit that country hard. It wasn't clear why, but I remember a report sometime during the summer that the most prevalent version of the virus in Italy was distinct from the Wuhan one, and could possibly be labeled a different strain because of its increased infectiousness, that mutation apparently occurring somewhere in Europe and spreading out from there (France was also hit hard at the same time IIRC, but Germany for example was not).
Not long after that I remember a cross-country comparison that said the primary version of the virus in New York (US East coast, also hit hard) matched the one in Italy, but not the Wuhan one, and that what we had in Chicago was a mix of the different strains with (at the time) no one winning out over the others.
Nice to finally see confirmation about there actually being different strains that are shifting over time, but unfortunately the timing makes it look like lockdowns may have selected for the more virulent version and caused the pandemic to be worse than it otherwise would have been (see the graphs in the "G strains take over" section, where the cases spike only after, well, the "G" strains take over and the Wuhan "L" strain has been pushed out).
And I was downvoted on HN for merely asking the question whether coronavirus could mutate: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24035686
You imploed that mutation is the same as a „change in any way biologically”. Coronaviruses mutate slowly, and the majority of mutations chamge nothing in the way the virus mutates. So far, out of all the strains, only one has been shown to modify it’s behaviour.
“If the virus changes substantially, particularly the spike proteins, then it might escape a vaccine. We want to slow transmission globally to slow the clock,” Is this why some are saying we might need a booster shot in a few years?
“If the virus changes substantially, particularly the spike proteins, then it might escape a vaccine. We want to slow transmission globally to slow the clock,” Is this why some are saying we might need a booster shot in a few years?
Anyhow, if the spike proteins vary too much, then we'll need a new vaccine all together, not just a booster for the current one
So it's finally okay to say there's multiple strains with different infectiousness and (possibly) severity? Back in February-ish (I forget exactly when), we had confirmed community spread in Washington (West-coast state in the US), with the belief that it had been spreading for weeks and no one noticed, because of how few cases there were, and no bump in hospitalizations. This was likely the Wuhan strain, which likew…
So which strain are the various vaccines targeting? Or are they multi strain vaccines like the flu vaccine?
EDIT- Be careful reading too far into statements like “XYZ mutation makes it easier to bond to ACE2 therefore it’s more contagious” Infection is more than just binding to a receptor, even if lower quality preprints jump the gun in their conclusions
So it's finally okay to say there's multiple strains with different infectiousness and (possibly) severity? Back in February-ish (I forget exactly when), we had confirmed community spread in Washington (West-coast state in the US), with the belief that it had been spreading for weeks and no one noticed, because of how few cases there were, and no bump in hospitalizations. This was likely the Wuhan strain, which likew…
Can you elaborate on why a lockdown would select for a more virulent strain?
Actually I think I should have said "infective" rather than "virulent" there; basically lockdowns select for versions of the virus that can spread despite the lockdowns. It only looks more virulent because of the larger number of total infections.
And I was downvoted on HN for merely asking the question whether coronavirus could mutate: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24035686
The stuff I get downvoted for boggles my mind (e.g. get downvoted for saying thank you this was a good post). They should rename HN to HM, HiveMind.