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Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

nytimes.com

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Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#261

Post by toby »

zone411 wrote: post #227
toby wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone says this about the lock up and it makes sense intuitively, but it doesn't really match the data. I saw a presentation by a major investment bank that showed that in most cases there is not a significant drop following the lock up expiration -- I'm sure there are examples either way, but this was a compelling basket.

If the effect of early employees and investors selling after the lockup is significant, it wouldn't manifest itself as a drop after the lock up, it's a known date and it would be anticipated ahead of time by other investors and traders with the stock price reflecting this.

Fair point -- I should have been more clear, this analysis was based on comparing the post-lockup price to the first trade, and also to the primary offering price (not 180 days to 179 days). You'd sometimes see a drop from the "pop" price, although not always, and it would almost never fall below the primary price.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#262

Post by worker767424 »

titanomachy wrote: post #258
worker767424 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The average American earns $900 per week and is probably not dropping that kind of money on a hotel. The average American making $900 per week doesn't normally go places that charge $50 a night for parking. Apparently parking at the Omaha Hilton is $15 per night. If I'm price-conscious, all else being equal, I'd still prefer a Super 8 to an Airbnb because it might not be nice, but it won't be bad, and the variance…

> parking at the Omaha Hilton is $15 per night. In Seattle (last city I stayed at a Hilton) it's $45 after tax. It's entirely possible that not many people making $900 per week go to Seattle, and when they do I bet they don't stay at the Hilton. Agreed though, it's hard to price in the potentially massive hassle of a bad Airbnb. I think most people treat the probability as zero until it happens to them personally.

> and when they do I bet they don't stay at the Hilton.

They stay here:

https://www.yelp.com/biz/kings-inn-seattle

Browse the photos. It's not bad, the parking is free, and the location is good, but if you can afford better, you should.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#263

Post by patothon »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #144
patothon wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the parent explained how it was impossible to get to that low of a number: -finance -payment -HR -management -verification of hosts / properties -scam detection and moderation -legal -dispute arbitration -programming -infrastructure -projects -building management for properties like HQ they own -customer service -etc. This represent so many people.

polote said "engineering". You responded by listing a bunch of non-engineering jobs that need done. OK, but you're arguing with something that is not what polote said.

these are not non-engineering jobs to be done, these are internal and external products to build.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#264

Post by rafiki6 »

tomjakubowski wrote: post #215
rafiki6 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two arguments can be made. On the one hand, there are definitely more private places to be rented out then there are hotel rooms in those 5 chains. On the other hand, I'm not entirely sure that Airbnb can ever be profitable enough with all of those rentable places to justify the cost, especially since much of their stock is misused long term rental capacity that many municipalities are cracking down on now. So yes, i…

Petco is well established (founded 55 years ago), based primarily in brick and mortar retail, and don't try to market themselves as a tech or "dotcom" company. We may be in a bubble, but I don't think their IPO is comparable to Pets.com of the dotcom era.

Yes they are two quite different companies. I just found it hilariously ironic.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#265

Post by divbzero »

subsubzero wrote: post #240
11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #154

I recall that Facebook's first day closed at or near the offer price: Opened at $38 and closed at $38.23. That's a masterful IPO pricing accomplishment, meaning, FB left $0.23 per share on the table. Moreover, the stock traded below the open for 5 quarters before starting it's impressive rise. Even with that pause, buying at the open and holding till now would have yielded nearly 27% annualized return. It's just my o…

Its funny you should mention that case(fb). It was very well priced if you were facebook as you lost barely any money. I remember the headlines during 2012 were the exact opposite, it was priced way too high and there was no 1st day "pop", everyone in the media/financial group declared the IPO a flop, the stock dropped after and settled near $12 a share a few months later, from there is started its huge rise to 200+.

I remember thinking that those headlines were crazy. I disagree with much of what Facebook does but they priced their IPO right.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#266

Post by jl2718 »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #154

I recall that Facebook's first day closed at or near the offer price: Opened at $38 and closed at $38.23. That's a masterful IPO pricing accomplishment, meaning, FB left $0.23 per share on the table. Moreover, the stock traded below the open for 5 quarters before starting it's impressive rise. Even with that pause, buying at the open and holding till now would have yielded nearly 27% annualized return. It's just my o…

Not if they don’t need the cash. The underwriters price shares based on analysis, but the market prices shares by supply and demand. If you undersell the demand, you get a price rise, which becomes the new ‘market’ valuation. Worst case, they traded $3.5B cash for $50B in equity.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#268

Post by tc313 »

TheCoelacanth wrote: post #259
tc313 wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The narrative between those two scenarios is drastically different. Who cares about the narrative unless you need to raise capital again soon? The money you get in an IPO actually goes into the business, while the trading price of the stock has no impact on the business.

Your shareholders, the owners of the company who you are working for, care about what the trading price is.

Surely they don’t care about it all the time — only when they wish to sell it. One would think that managers who make decisions based on business value — rather than stock “narratives” — would create the most value for long-term owners of the company.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#269

Post by jmcdl »

triceratops wrote: post #239
actuator wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't RSUs granted like regular stocks are? Say, I join a public company. If they say they will pay me 500k USD worth of stocks, it generally means that I get 500k/(average share price of month, share price on stock offer date etc.) stocks subject to vesting cycle. Basically, I have fixed number of shares from that point and they appreciate or depreciate with the market. I am assuming if AirBnB offered 500k USD of R…

That's my understanding too. But if the RSU was granted at $50 and the price drops to $30, the employee is going to be quite upset (this could've happened to me at a different company if I had taken a certain offer). That's why I said that the share price continues to matter to the company, even post-IPO.

Expecting share prices to only go up and not move with broader market cycles would be quite naive. Maybe the fed will succeed in keeping this bubble from popping forever, but I certainly wouldn't be counting on it when considering any offer.

Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO

#270

Post by maybelsyrup »

titanomachy wrote: post #251
maybelsyrup wrote: post #135

I decided I'd had it with Airbnb a couple of years ago now and mostly haven't looked back. I prioritize more traditional hospitality options now. I'll save a long diatribe and instead say that when I added up the little details I didn't like about the platform, and the ways I'd fix them, I'd "invented" ... a hotel. It may be my age now (over 30), but I've come to value knowing that Hilton uses a certain type of bedsh…

> It may be my age now I assume it's probably in part an increase in wealth as you've gotten older. I think a Hilton is normally upwards of $200 a night, plus $50 per night for parking ($1400-1750 depending if you have a car). The average American earns $900 per week and is probably not dropping that kind of money on a hotel. They're also pretty geared towards business travelers, with lots of premium conveniences tha…

Yeah I pulled "Hilton" out of a hat - didn't mean to convey "I only stay in pricey places now". I'll take a Super 8 or a local inn pretty much any day.
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