SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#201

Post by qayxc » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:48 PM UTC

the8472 wrote: post #187

qayxc wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except totally unreasonable :) Rockets that size cannot be launched anywhere near populated areas, so they'd have to launch from off-shore platforms; outside of Australia, USA and Russia there are no worthwhile destinations that can safely host on-shore rocket launch complexes for that class of rocket. This poses quite complex logistical challenges that enthusiasts just love to handwave away. But there's even more to…

> would in reality consist of a 1 hour drive to the port, followed by 1 hour check-in and a 1 hour boat ride to the off-shore launch facilities. Next you'd have at least 1 hour of boarding procedures (limited elevator space, pressure suit fitting, seating) followed by fuelling (maybe another hour?). So after about 5 hours or so you are finally clear for launch I see that the TSA mindflayers have not been kind to you.…

We're still talking about international flights here - 90 min pre-flight arrival on international flights is standard. There won't be any less rigorous security checks because you're flying a rocket.

Parallel procedures might sound fine in theory, but it's way simpler to just have people onboard the ferry who are good to go and don't need to be kept there, make a scene, etc. Security personell and access to information systems is much simpler to come by in the port, which incidentally already has customs facilities anyway.

> And you don't even have to start at some port far from a city.

Yes you do, that's the whole idea of safe distances with rocket launches. We're talking about a vehicle that basically can be as devastating as a small tactical nuke in terms of destructive potential. Especially during launch, you'd want that thing as far away from densely populated areas as possible: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gklVhRzkVqA&feature=youtu.be... that's what happened last time a 30-engine rocket failed...

> consider jet hydrofoils

That might be an option, but then again even Shotwell explicitly mentioned the boat ride to be longer than the 30 min rocket ride even at just 10 miles out, so I don't think fast ferries are the most realistic option (mostly for safety reasons).

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#202

Post by fooker » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:49 PM UTC

qayxc wrote: post #129

ComodoHacker wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>looking forward to hailing a Starship in the Uber app Not totally unreasonable, according to another quote: >The cargo version can also be used for rapid point-to-point Earth transport.

Except totally unreasonable :) Rockets that size cannot be launched anywhere near populated areas, so they'd have to launch from off-shore platforms; outside of Australia, USA and Russia there are no worthwhile destinations that can safely host on-shore rocket launch complexes for that class of rocket. This poses quite complex logistical challenges that enthusiasts just love to handwave away. But there's even more to…

>Weather will lead to scrubbed flights as rockets have much tighter weather parameters than aeroplanes and are incapable of changing routes mid flight or divert to alternate airfields.

This part is not true. Weather plays a significant role for thin rockets. This one is thick enough to be launched during usual weather fluctuations. Of course, a tornado or cyclone might be disruptive, but that's also true for normal airplanes.

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#203

Post by fooker » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:55 PM UTC

ArnoVW wrote: post #136

To quote Crocodile Dundee: "that's not a user guide". SpaceX do amazing things, and shows that private space is good. But you have to admit that government space programs have better public documentation. The ISS operating guide, in all it's glory: http://spaceref.com/iss/operations.html

>The ISS operating guide, in all it's glory:

You are comparing an 'user guide' for a 20 year old mature project to one which will launch in ~N years in the future.

That is like comparing Linux man pages with an early stage startup pitch deck.

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#204

Post by the8472 » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 5:58 PM UTC

qayxc wrote: post #201

the8472 wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would in reality consist of a 1 hour drive to the port, followed by 1 hour check-in and a 1 hour boat ride to the off-shore launch facilities. Next you'd have at least 1 hour of boarding procedures (limited elevator space, pressure suit fitting, seating) followed by fuelling (maybe another hour?). So after about 5 hours or so you are finally clear for launch I see that the TSA mindflayers have not been kind to you.…

We're still talking about international flights here - 90 min pre-flight arrival on international flights is standard. There won't be any less rigorous security checks because you're flying a rocket. Parallel procedures might sound fine in theory, but it's way simpler to just have people onboard the ferry who are good to go and don't need to be kept there, make a scene, etc. Security personell and access to informati…

> > And you don't even have to start at some port far from a city.

> Yes you do, that's the whole idea of safe distances with rocket launches.

I meant the old-fashioned, boaty port, not space port.

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#205

Post by randomsearch » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 6:04 PM UTC

futureshock wrote: post #173

randomsearch wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I realise that Musk has flaws and has received criticism for the spat with the cave diver, ignoring COVID, and labour issues. Want to add that caveat. But beyond that, I feel like in terms of what he's doing Musk is some sort of time traveller, back from the future to boost humanity's progress. Why is he such an outlier? What can we as individuals learn from him? And more importantly, how do we make more Elon Musks?

He has flaws. It's fine to recognize that. We all have flaws though and it's unrealistic to expect perfect opinions from anyone. Who decides what perfect is anyway? I absolutely think there is something to learn from his approach, though I think he has much in common with other highly successful people. My old boss actually had a similar attitude and she accomplished amazing things in her life. In the same way the pe…

What a positive and uplifting comment, thank you! I love the idea of amplifiers... it's a great counter-argument to naysayers, that it just changes the scale.

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#206

Post by qayxc » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 6:05 PM UTC

njarboe wrote: post #197

qayxc wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except totally unreasonable :) Rockets that size cannot be launched anywhere near populated areas, so they'd have to launch from off-shore platforms; outside of Australia, USA and Russia there are no worthwhile destinations that can safely host on-shore rocket launch complexes for that class of rocket. This poses quite complex logistical challenges that enthusiasts just love to handwave away. But there's even more to…

Commercial aircraft were also totally unreasonable for quite a time after Wright's first flight in 1903. Musk has explicitly stated that a "safety first" attitude does not get people to Mars. His hierarchy of action is "don't panic", not yet specified, "safety third, maybe". This philosophy is hard to implement in modern day America, but the attitude is part of what allows Elon Musk and the people that work with him…

> Commercial aircraft were also totally unreasonable for quite a time after Wright's first flight in 1903.

That's comparing apples and orangutans.

This isn't a 1903 situation at all - we've launched rockets on a weekly basis for 60 years and operated crewed reusable spacecraft for more than 30 years.

This is well known territory. All limitations, possibilities and risks are well known and documented.

If you have to make a comparison, choose the Concorde versus Ju-52 or something. But even that's flawed because it doesn't fit at all.

The concerns I mentioned aren't going to magically disappear - even a "perfectly safe" (by whatever definition) rocket still has to deal with these. A 30-engine, 122m, 65MN rocket will generate a literally deafening blast and for that reason alone cannot be launched near cities. This is a fact of nature, not just a simple engineering problem or overly cautious safety concern.

Same goes for airspace closure, weather on both ends, and simple things like customs and security checks.

Starship won't have any cross-range capabilities, full stop. That's how rockets work and one consequence of this is that bad weather means a scrubbed launch, simple as that. Nothing to do with attitude or "modern America".

That's just physics and natural phenomena that exist and cannot be wished away.

Again, none of this prevents point-to-point travel from being possible, it just demonstrates that it's likely not going to be an everyday occurrence like long-haul flights. A novelty, maybe. Another option for the rich and important, sure.

A viable alternative to regular jets, I think not. Time might prove me wrong, but I'm fairly certain the odds are stacked against regular point-to-point passenger flight service using huge rockets.

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#207

Post by qayxc » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 6:09 PM UTC

the8472 wrote: post #204

qayxc wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're still talking about international flights here - 90 min pre-flight arrival on international flights is standard. There won't be any less rigorous security checks because you're flying a rocket. Parallel procedures might sound fine in theory, but it's way simpler to just have people onboard the ferry who are good to go and don't need to be kept there, make a scene, etc. Security personell and access to informati…

> > And you don't even have to start at some port far from a city. > Yes you do, that's the whole idea of safe distances with rocket launches. I meant the old-fashioned, boaty port, not space port.

Ah, I see, sorry - misunderstanding on my part :)

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#208

Post by qayxc » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 6:21 PM UTC

fooker wrote: post #202

qayxc wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except totally unreasonable :) Rockets that size cannot be launched anywhere near populated areas, so they'd have to launch from off-shore platforms; outside of Australia, USA and Russia there are no worthwhile destinations that can safely host on-shore rocket launch complexes for that class of rocket. This poses quite complex logistical challenges that enthusiasts just love to handwave away. But there's even more to…

>Weather will lead to scrubbed flights as rockets have much tighter weather parameters than aeroplanes and are incapable of changing routes mid flight or divert to alternate airfields. This part is not true. Weather plays a significant role for thin rockets. This one is thick enough to be launched during usual weather fluctuations. Of course, a tornado or cyclone might be disruptive, but that's also true for normal a…

> This part is not true.

Yes it is. A wider rocket has more generous margins when it comes to wind, sure, but thunderstorms, heavy rain, storm with strong gusts (doesn't have to be extreme either), sudden ice, heavy snow, etc. etc. will still prevent launches and especially landings.

> Of course, a tornado or cyclone might be disruptive, but that's also true for normal airplanes.

Normal aeroplanes fly around unfavourable regularly and flying holding patterns is normal procedure anyway. None of that is possible with rockets, no matter how wide.

The situation is worsened by the fact that pilots have the luxury of time when planning their route, e.g. bad weather at the destination during launch isn't a big deal for long-haul flights, since there's often 10 hours or more until it even becomes relevant.

With a rocket, weather at the launch and target site have to be favourable at pretty much the same time, since you'd get there in well under an hour.

We'll see later today how well the aerodynamics might work and how the rocket behaves. I remain very sceptical about the point-to-point idea.

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#209

Post by imglorp » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 7:08 PM UTC

angry-tempest wrote: post #164

andyjohnson0 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just putting the fact that I just downloaded a user manual for a multi planetary spacecraft in PDF format into historical context Its not really a user guide though. More like a brief, very high-level technical spec. Marketing material.

It's ridiculous people are buying this shit.

I don't understand the hate. F9, dragon, crew, etc all work. Why won't this?

Re: SpaceX Starship Users' Guide [pdf]

#210

Post by RivieraKid » Tue, Dec 08, 2020, 8:04 PM UTC

throwaway316943 wrote: post #198

RivieraKid wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What annoys me that I would want to be a fan of someone like him but I just find his personality and behavior repulsive. After Jobs and Musk many people will now think you have to be an asshole to be successful and will try emulate the bad parts too. People are biased towards simple explanations of the world so they're biased towards either either Musk is amazing or Musk sucks. The reality is that he's a great enterp…

To be an effective leader you have to be willing to take risks. Most of those risks are interpersonal in nature. You run the risk of offending people when you tell them they can do better than they currently are. You’re essentially calling them out for not working hard enough, or having wrong assumptions, or any of the other normal human failings that everyone is subject to. If a leader doesn’t call those things or t…

I agree with the first part. But you can have high standards, call out incompetence and fire people without being an asshole (or without being perceived as one). A good example is Ray Dalio.

The thing is, Elon Musk is emotionally immature. He's extremely thin-skinned and narcissistic. He likes to take revenge. There's a difference between firing someone because it will help the project and doing it because you're angry and it will make you feel good.