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Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

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Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#571
post #555

Nobody really brings up that the bay area is one of few places in the US where you can live without a car. Really, even compared to other "walkable" cities beyond a select few, similarly expensive places. Nobody really brings up that the bay area has better LGBT and other minority protections than anywhere in the US, either. Every time someone mentions cheap midwest cities I have to pull up https://crossingenres.com/…

Well, if you consider South Bay, that's not true. Spent one summer interning at IBM, living in South San Jose (capital expressway). Had an absolutely horrible time. Even getting a bottle of milk was 2 mile walk. Buses were once every hour.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, mostly. The bottom is still decently high even in Midwest cities. But if you’re making $140,000 + RSU/Bonus/Etc., someone from somewhere else will do that job remotely for $100,000 easy. But I would characterize this as a wealth distribution, and overall net positive for the country. People who don’t have the opportunities to work at the top companies in the Bay Area or NYC or Boston now have better access.…

The one thing people seem to keep forgetting about when talking about this race to the bottom is how hard it is to find good software authors. My company is fully remote and global and it is still really hard to find good people. I really don't see much of a change given the current unmet, and rising, demand.

How much does your company pay?

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bay area is one of the worse places to have rental properties in the country though in terms of ratio of rental income to mortgage costs. If it wasn't for appreciation most would sell instead of try to rent out homes. Landlords aren't making their money from the rents, they are making it from the appreciation.

If a landowner is having trouble making a profit on rent due to high mortgage costs, that just means that the wealth was captured by the previous owner via a high sale price. So the point still stands that a disproportionate amount of wealth is flowing to land instead of capital or labor.

Appreciation is not rent seeking though. Also, savings is what funds capital investment. There's no capital without previous profit.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#574
post #555

Nobody really brings up that the bay area is one of few places in the US where you can live without a car. Really, even compared to other "walkable" cities beyond a select few, similarly expensive places. Nobody really brings up that the bay area has better LGBT and other minority protections than anywhere in the US, either. Every time someone mentions cheap midwest cities I have to pull up https://crossingenres.com/…

At some point the basic maintenance of law and order (or conversely the refusal to do so) takes precedence over walkability or the local art and culture scene. As for tolerance, West Coast cities are rapidly developing a social and political milieu that is openly hostile towards the tech industry to a much greater degree than Austin or Miami (to name two examples from the article) are hostile to LGBT people.

Are you really saying that it's harder to be a techie than LGBT in San Francisco?

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#575
post #555

Nobody really brings up that the bay area is one of few places in the US where you can live without a car. Really, even compared to other "walkable" cities beyond a select few, similarly expensive places. Nobody really brings up that the bay area has better LGBT and other minority protections than anywhere in the US, either. Every time someone mentions cheap midwest cities I have to pull up https://crossingenres.com/…

Some people don't care about those things, but do care about how big their house is, how many cars fit in the garage, and how much they (and their kids) look like the people (and schools) around them. To be fair when I was living "rural", I loved being only 45min from a 24hr Walmart, and I've lived as a minority, which doesn't feel great so I get going back from whence you came.

But I'm still going to say, what you didn't... good riddance. If you came just for the money and the ambiance a generation of intellectuals and artists created before you came, and you aren't willing to contribute to it? Leave, I'll be as happy to see you go as I was in 2001. If the pandemic (and lack of cool bars for a year) is all it takes, maybe people who give a damn will be able to move back in. Maybe that's not what created the wealth, but it sure did make it a nice place to hang anyway.

My personal guess is that a lot of those "creatives" that are moving to Hawaii/Sacramento/etc for 6 months (or a year) will be back, and if not, I hope they enjoy the place they choose to make home.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, mostly. The bottom is still decently high even in Midwest cities. But if you’re making $140,000 + RSU/Bonus/Etc., someone from somewhere else will do that job remotely for $100,000 easy. But I would characterize this as a wealth distribution, and overall net positive for the country. People who don’t have the opportunities to work at the top companies in the Bay Area or NYC or Boston now have better access.…

The one thing people seem to keep forgetting about when talking about this race to the bottom is how hard it is to find good software authors. My company is fully remote and global and it is still really hard to find good people. I really don't see much of a change given the current unmet, and rising, demand.

I think you greatly underestimate global talent for some reason.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#577
post #555

Nobody really brings up that the bay area is one of few places in the US where you can live without a car. Really, even compared to other "walkable" cities beyond a select few, similarly expensive places. Nobody really brings up that the bay area has better LGBT and other minority protections than anywhere in the US, either. Every time someone mentions cheap midwest cities I have to pull up https://crossingenres.com/…

It sounds like you have spent real time in vanishingly few places in the U.S.

With regard to LGBT protections -- as a queer person I've experienced vibrant, proud and welcoming communities all over the place. Midwest (Twin Cities, Columbus, Chicago) south (New Orleans, Atlanta). Not to diminish the importance of making progress, but your actual life is highly unlikely to be affected by whatever laws are still on the books in certain areas. There are millions of happy, successful LGBT people all over the country.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much equity would you need to hold to compensate for a 30-40% decrease in wages?

Who is experiencing the decrease in wages? For many Americans the distribution of these jobs to other locations would result in an increase in wages. Not to mention, the top companies would still hire top talent in a competitive market.

Aggregate price for talent probably doesn't change. Demand for talent in key markets goes down (as companies in those markets start looking for non-local talent[1]), but demand for talent in any market goes up (as non-local companies seek local talent).

So it would follow that overpriced talent in high-demand markets would see a decrease, where underpriced talent in low-demand markets would see an increase.

This would be the same concerns with offshoring as well, but that hasn't led to massive salary drops. Because there's still a big cost to switching people. If you could fire all your SF SWEs today and replace them with identical, knowledgable, fully-ramped, culture-carried SWEs in $secondary_market for half price, you would. You can't, so you threaten and you try to convince your SF SWE that you could just enough to keep their expectations low, but not so much that they actually quit.

I see a lot of companies still trying the "CoLA trick" on employees moving to secondary markets. "We can hire your position in $market for cheaper," so the argument goes. The best move there is to call their bluff: "go do it then". Most people won't do it because a) conflict is hard and b) finding a new job on top of moving is annoying. So they'll take it on the chin and just resign 6-12 months later after they're settled.

[1] In the old world, there's still a premium to convince talent to relocate. So companies in high-demand markets (e.g., SF) either have to pay +x% to tap non-local talent and get them to move to the high-demand market (where they become local talent).

Even in the new world, non-local talent isn't going to sit by and let themselves be underpaid. "I'm doing the exact same thing, delivering the exact same value, but someone is getting paid 30% more to sit in the office? Oh, and you don't even pay for my home office?"

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#579
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without William Shockley moving to the west coast, the "Silicon" part of Silicon Valley would likely be elsewhere in the world.

That's a counterfactual. Yeah, maybe Shockley's project happened elsewhere it Silicon Elsewhere could have happened somewhere else. But it didn't happen elsewhere. But you are assuming that it would have catalyzed elsewhere. For example, it could have catalyzed in Murray Hill, New Jersey after the transistor but it didn't. Anyways, people are always leaving the Bay Area. If you came here five years ago, first you wer…

I believe they will, given the current Keith Rabois as a mentor.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#580
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a lot to like about many areas of California. Which ones may depend on your weather, cultural, etc. preferences. But Silicon Valley proper I find not particularly appealing; housing costs are only part of the reason. (SF itself has well-documented pluses and minuses.) I don't live or work in CA/SV. But if I were in SV but no longer needed to commute, I might well stay in CA but I'd probably move somewhere out…

I think SVs appeal is that you can leave in a quiet suburb close to a lot of easily accessible nature, while still having Amazon 2-day shipping, ridesharing, Uber Eats, and luxury retail. There's not many places in the US like this. Europe has a lot but there's not much tech jobs in them. You are also close to SF if you like the madness of the city every once in a while. Other suburby places with nature easily access…

Lots of replies are saying this exists in "every major metro" in the US.

But if you start narrowing it to places with pleasant weather, suddenly it starts looking like a smaller picture. The west coast, west of the cascades or central valley in CA. Probably places like the Carolinas, Tennessee. And maybe we'll be nice to Colorado and give them a trophy for at least having sunshine in the winter :)

You don't have to pay SF rents, of course, but you're not buying a $100k mansion and getting all of these things either.

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