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Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

businessinsider.com

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Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#81

Post by gonehome »

munaf wrote: post #40

It's notable that a lot of people are moving, but I'd wait until at least early 2022 to make judgements about lasting impacts on SV. WFH might not stick widely, and some firms will pick a hybrid model (i.e. partial WFH) over going fully remote. Not to mention that few places can match all the benefits of SV, i.e. unenforceable non-competes, fantastic weather and surroundings, an educated and diverse population, cultu…

Yeah, I've had some friends leave (to CO and DC), but I'm skeptical of companies and VCs leaving.

For a kind of funny example, there was an episode of the all-in podcast (mostly a podcast of successful VCs) where they talked about SV politics and leaving.

The irony was while they talked about CA politics to an absurd degree ("worst run state in US", etc.) when they asked each other if they were planning on leaving all of them said no.

People complain a lot (and there are good reasons to complain!), but people have been complaining since at least 1993 and it's still an economic hub for startups. I'm skeptical of that leaving.

I have seen coworkers and friends leave, but it's mostly a housing issue. As people turn 30 and want to have a family if you haven't cashed out $5M in some exit event then it sucks to live here. $500k can get you a nice place in CO, $750k for outside Seattle.

I have had older friends leave to have a family. They went to Santa Cruz, Seattle, Denver, DC, and Austin. It's a shame. The ones that stayed either are very rich where a $5M house is not an issue, or they still live with three roommates and rent without kids.

Some other reasons to complain about, but that I don't think are usually deciding factors for people to leave:

- Bad policy (AB5), Extra founder Tax, Hostility towards tech in general.

- Political monoculture (I don't mean not enough trump people, I mean it can be controversial to be an obama era moderate/neoliberal and 'woke' politics is hard to avoid).

- High state taxes that harm capital gains and new money. This is related to housing and prop13. Not only do the people that live in housing they bought decades ago pay almost no property tax compared to new buyers, they then push to restrict new supply while also pushing to increase tax on new money. This comes in the form of higher capital gains tax (there's a bill to raise it to 16.3% this year retroactively, by far the highest in the country). They also push legislation to increase tax on the companies excluding homeowners to fund their services (which indirectly affects the employees again). This kind of thing makes it doubly hard to be able to buy in and live here.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#82

Post by renewiltord »

pontus wrote: post #11
chrismckleroy wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Better weather” I can’t help but laugh. One of five Mediterranean climates worldwide, built on apricot orchards, formerly home to one of the most diverse animal and again ecosystems before the arrival of whites. It’s really hard to beat the weather in Silicon Valley. It’s almost non seasonal, anything grows. The diversity currently of this area is very high, it’s the home of top universities, between the two cross p…

Perhaps you're talking about the east or south bay, but SF proper has awful weather. Moved there from NYC expecting the climate you describe only to find rugged and overcast weather year around. Moved to Los Angeles after a year and can say with 100% conviction that the weather here is categorically better.

Yeah SF itself has rubbish weather. SoCal is most definitely where the good weather is.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#83

Post by gedy »

renewiltord wrote: post #73
gedy wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless you are a political junky reading news all day - what practically speaking is so intolerable about living there or your neighbors?

It's hard to describe to people who are both White and American. That's not because they're inherently incapable of understanding. It's just a problem you don't face as much so you don't understand it. It's like how for most of my life I barely understood the mitigating measures women take in many situations where I don't even notice the situation.

East Asian family in different parts of Texas are California expats and love it.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#84

Post by NeverFade »

rhacker wrote: post #66
NeverFade wrote: post #62

Instead of trying to help the tech boom and the people who created it, SFBA government and locals grew ever more greedy and entitled, looking to fleece techies at every opportunity. "Why should we build more affordable housing? We'd rather ban development, and make these 'rich young techies' pay through the nose to landlords who just happened to buy a house here 20 years ago!" "Who cares about ensuring reasonable qua…

I don't understand how the bay area could even handle more people. I think you'd have to increase the number of lanes on the 101, 280, 237, 85 by at least 4 more to make it work with the current population.

Higher density housing. You can turn parts of the bay into a modern city, with highrises. That way folks won't have to commute to work.

Or you can massively increase transportation capacity, not just with roads but (more effectively) with trains and subways and other forms of fast, efficient public transportation.

Of course none of this will ever happen, SFBA residents and government will continue to exclusively focus on slaughtering their golden geese until they all gone.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#86

Post by TuringNYC »

gonehome wrote: post #81
munaf wrote: post #40

It's notable that a lot of people are moving, but I'd wait until at least early 2022 to make judgements about lasting impacts on SV. WFH might not stick widely, and some firms will pick a hybrid model (i.e. partial WFH) over going fully remote. Not to mention that few places can match all the benefits of SV, i.e. unenforceable non-competes, fantastic weather and surroundings, an educated and diverse population, cultu…

Yeah, I've had some friends leave (to CO and DC), but I'm skeptical of companies and VCs leaving. For a kind of funny example, there was an episode of the all-in podcast (mostly a podcast of successful VCs) where they talked about SV politics and leaving. The irony was while they talked about CA politics to an absurd degree ("worst run state in US", etc.) when they asked each other if they were planning on leaving al…

>> Yeah, I've had some friends leave (to CO and DC), but I'm skeptical of companies and VCs leaving.

>> I have had older friends leave to have a family. They went to Santa Cruz, Seattle, Denver, DC, and Austin. It's a shame. The ones that stayed either are very rich where a $5M house is not an issue, or they still live with three roommates and rent without kids.

Just wait until they look for interesting jobs and get 100 linked in messages from CA and like 1 or 2 from DC. (note: I live in VA just outside DC, speaking from experience.)

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#87

Post by kilbuz »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #70

I'd love to hear from people who want to stay in the Bay area what is unique that you cannot find elsewhere in cheaper locales. I lived in Mountain View for 3 months during 500 startups and the valley proper was the most garden variety suburban existence you could find anywhere. I lived in SF proper off and on and can attest that it certainly has (had?) fantastic restaurants/shops and a particular type of culture tha…

For me (in SF): climate that matches what I want perfectly. The option for snow or beaches on the same day. The food, the diversity, the grittiness, the jobs, the history. And all my family lives here, too. The biggest one of all: walkability, never having to get in my car unless I want to leave the city.

Where did you end up moving that you found a better fit for yourself?

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#88

Post by VintageLight »

rhacker wrote: post #66
NeverFade wrote: post #62

Instead of trying to help the tech boom and the people who created it, SFBA government and locals grew ever more greedy and entitled, looking to fleece techies at every opportunity. "Why should we build more affordable housing? We'd rather ban development, and make these 'rich young techies' pay through the nose to landlords who just happened to buy a house here 20 years ago!" "Who cares about ensuring reasonable qua…

I don't understand how the bay area could even handle more people. I think you'd have to increase the number of lanes on the 101, 280, 237, 85 by at least 4 more to make it work with the current population.

You could build up housing density in the places that people work so they wouldn't have to commute.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#89

Post by sandworm101 »

bigyikes wrote: post #13

As it happens, tomorrow I’m putting in my 30-day notice to terminate my lease and leave the Bay. (And I’m paying 2 additional months rent in fees to do so) Not being tied to the office fundamentally changes the calculus of choosing where to live. There just aren’t good reasons to live here anymore for so many of us. Even if you enjoy the area, chances are you can get a better deal by moving just a bit further away. A…

>> and still come out ahead financially.

Ya. Earning a SF wage but living elsewhere is great. But there is a flip side to this coin. As employees realize they can work from home, employers also realize they can have employees work from home. They will soon realize they don't need to pay SF wages. Those who convert their in-office jobs into work-from-home are a covid oddity. Those who will be hired in the future on the assumption that they will always work remotely will likely face much lower wages. I predict a race for the bottom.

Re: Tech elites leaving San Francisco threaten Silicon Valley's supremacy

#90

Post by nradov »

tharne wrote: post #47
ijidak wrote: post #4

There is a supremacy, but the idea that it is threatened is hyperbolic, designed to get readers. This is a small shift in the grand scheme. It might help create new centers. But the gravity is going to be around the universities and infrastructure that is unique to the area. Shifts like that rarely happen overnight. Especially not because of something as temporary as a pandemic.

New England has a ton of world-class universities and yet nothing even close to Silicon Valley. The gravity you mention, is the people, and once they start leaving that "gravity" goes with them.

New England had something close to (or even superior to) Silicon Valley. Most of the leading minicomputer companies were headquartered in the Boston area, and benefitted from the world-class universities there. But that industry collectively missed disruptive changes from minicomputers to microcomputers, and then the Internet.
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