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Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

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Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#111

Post by twelve40 »

hinkley wrote: post #6
idoh wrote: post #2

Excess mortality seems like the best way to track the pandemic because determining whether someone died of covid can be debatable sometimes, but there can be no debate over whether someone died.

I know at least one person who’s having problems exacerbated by lack of mobility. Atrophy in old people can be a big problem. I would not go so far as to support anyone claiming this is why we should be breaking quarantine, but can’t quite support racking them all up as COVID deaths either. Reality is somewhere between the two (but close to “most” than “few”)

Assigning blame for various components of the overall mortality is important for those who can change the policy, but for lil' old me it's very great to see at least one indisputable number (excess mortality - hard to fake the fact of death) that can be trusted to represent the magnitude of what we're dealing with in 2020, and which, yes, includes all deaths caused by (or avoided by) various policies. Everything else quickly becomes a jumbled opinionated mess which depends on how deaths are attributed and quickly loses any objectivity and meaning.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#112

Post by chimprich »

tinus_hn wrote: post #93
chimprich wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are quite a few risk increases associated with general shutdown. [...] Another large impact is mental illness Although there clearly is a harmful impact on mental health caused by "general shutdown", it's not clear that it's a net negative. Compared to the potential alternative (higher mortality, overwhelmed health systems, and anxiety about insufficient measures being taken) it may be a net positive.

Don’t you think the evidence for this level of infringing on peoples basic rights should be less flimsy than ‘may be a net positive’?

Yes, but we're not limiting people's freedoms to avoid a negative mental health impact. That's a separate observation.

We have these restrictions to avoid collapse of our health systems. The hospitalisation rate of an uncontrolled spread of the virus far exceeds any country's healthcare capacity. The maths is inescapable.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#113

Post by tinus_hn »

chimprich wrote: post #112
tinus_hn wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t you think the evidence for this level of infringing on peoples basic rights should be less flimsy than ‘may be a net positive’?

Yes, but we're not limiting people's freedoms to avoid a negative mental health impact. That's a separate observation. We have these restrictions to avoid collapse of our health systems. The hospitalisation rate of an uncontrolled spread of the virus far exceeds any country's healthcare capacity. The maths is inescapable.

Clearly the example of Sweden shows that that isn’t true.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#115

Post by Viliam1234 »

idoh wrote: post #2

Excess mortality seems like the best way to track the pandemic because determining whether someone died of covid can be debatable sometimes, but there can be no debate over whether someone died.

> there can be no debate over whether someone died.

Sure, but their deaths can be attributed to lockdowns. And when the vaccine is out, their deaths will probably be attributed to the vaccine.

Measuring excess mortality is not going to convince a covid denialist.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#116

Post by adewinter »

Viliam1234 wrote: post #115
idoh wrote: post #2

Excess mortality seems like the best way to track the pandemic because determining whether someone died of covid can be debatable sometimes, but there can be no debate over whether someone died.

> there can be no debate over whether someone died. Sure, but their deaths can be attributed to lockdowns. And when the vaccine is out, their deaths will probably be attributed to the vaccine. Measuring excess mortality is not going to convince a covid denialist.

Excess Mortality is a tool used to attribute deaths to _the pandemic_. It is helpful for answering questions like "How well is handling the Pandemic?" and for comparing performance between countries and comparisons over time.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#117

Post by chimprich »

tinus_hn wrote: post #113
chimprich wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but we're not limiting people's freedoms to avoid a negative mental health impact. That's a separate observation. We have these restrictions to avoid collapse of our health systems. The hospitalisation rate of an uncontrolled spread of the virus far exceeds any country's healthcare capacity. The maths is inescapable.

Clearly the example of Sweden shows that that isn’t true.

Are you arguing that Sweden is allowing an uncontrolled spread of the virus? They've had strong voluntary measures in place all year.

In the past month they've also imposed several enforced measures to restrict the spread of the virus, including a limit on gatherings to 8 people, a bar curfew, and they've just closed secondary schools for at least a month.

"Don’t go to gyms, don’t go to libraries, don’t host dinners. Cancel." - Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven.

Despite these measures they are seeing rising hospitalisations. Further measures look inevitable.

Or if not, what are you arguing?

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#118

Post by Viliam1234 »

adewinter wrote: post #116
Viliam1234 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there can be no debate over whether someone died. Sure, but their deaths can be attributed to lockdowns. And when the vaccine is out, their deaths will probably be attributed to the vaccine. Measuring excess mortality is not going to convince a covid denialist.

Excess Mortality is a tool used to attribute deaths to _the pandemic_. It is helpful for answering questions like "How well is handling the Pandemic?" and for comparing performance between countries and comparisons over time.

It conflates "deaths caused by pandemic" with "deaths caused by reactions to pandemic" with "deaths caused by random things that accidentally happened during the pandemic".

Imagine a parallel universe, where COVID-19 is actually just a flu, but for some reason the oppresive governments execute anyone who says so. In the parallel universe, they also have excess mortality (because of the executions) during 2020. So you cannot use the mere fact of excessive mortality to prove that we do not in fact live in this parallel universe.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#119

Post by tinus_hn »

chimprich wrote: post #117
tinus_hn wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clearly the example of Sweden shows that that isn’t true.

Are you arguing that Sweden is allowing an uncontrolled spread of the virus? They've had strong voluntary measures in place all year. In the past month they've also imposed several enforced measures to restrict the spread of the virus, including a limit on gatherings to 8 people, a bar curfew, and they've just closed secondary schools for at least a month. "Don’t go to gyms, don’t go to libraries, don’t host dinners.…

I love how the No True Swedish Man, when the numbers are going down, is following the voluntary measures to the dot but when the numbers are going up retroactively is not.

By the way despite all the drama hospitalizations are still not at the level they were beginning of the year. But I’m sure that’s because they are following the rules again?

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#120

Post by [deleted] »

tinus_hn wrote: post #119
chimprich wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you arguing that Sweden is allowing an uncontrolled spread of the virus? They've had strong voluntary measures in place all year. In the past month they've also imposed several enforced measures to restrict the spread of the virus, including a limit on gatherings to 8 people, a bar curfew, and they've just closed secondary schools for at least a month. "Don’t go to gyms, don’t go to libraries, don’t host dinners.…

I love how the No True Swedish Man, when the numbers are going down, is following the voluntary measures to the dot but when the numbers are going up retroactively is not. By the way despite all the drama hospitalizations are still not at the level they were beginning of the year. But I’m sure that’s because they are following the rules again?

[deleted]
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