61–70 of 121 posts
Excess mortality seems like the best way to track the pandemic because determining whether someone died of covid can be debatable sometimes, but there can be no debate over whether someone died.
So take a look what this guy found out: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=240767
A great data source for EU excess deaths is Euromomo. They publish official national mortality statistics weekly from the 26 European countries. Graphs and analysis as well. https://www.euromomo.eu/
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know at least one person who’s having problems exacerbated by lack of mobility. Atrophy in old people can be a big problem. I would not go so far as to support anyone claiming this is why we should be breaking quarantine, but can’t quite support racking them all up as COVID deaths either. Reality is somewhere between the two (but close to “most” than “few”)
What about all the traffic accidents which didn’t happen due to shutdown?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Um, the nature of excess death is that it is comparing to previous years. This is a normal statistic we calculate to compare particular events to a long term trend, in this case as you see, this event (a global pandemic) has resulted in huge excess mortality in some countries such as the US.
It's comparing current year death totals to previous year death totals, but isn't taking into account the rate of population growth acceleration, and expected death rate acceleration. This is the definition of misinformation.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know at least one person who’s having problems exacerbated by lack of mobility. Atrophy in old people can be a big problem. I would not go so far as to support anyone claiming this is why we should be breaking quarantine, but can’t quite support racking them all up as COVID deaths either. Reality is somewhere between the two (but close to “most” than “few”)
There are quite a few risk increases associated with general shutdown. This is one with large impact. Another large impact is mental illness, in particular presenting in suicide and substance abuse. On the other side, many other common risks are reduced: workplace injury, other transmissible ailments. If the purpose of the analysis is to determine whether the preventive measure is effective and not overwrought, an ex…
At least one study didn't find an uptick in suicides as a result of the lockdowns. Situation may differ in America because it's run by idiots that cut off state income support and didn't commit to locking down till the situation was under control.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The other factor little talked about in Europe is aged carers - usually from Eastern Europe and the FSU - rushing to return home to their families in the midst of border closures, lockdowns, and flight cancellations. This lead many residents to die of neglect, or for COVID to sweep easily through many centres if the remaining staff worked whilst symptomatic and took shifts across multiple locations. This is part of t…
What do you mean by that last paragraph? Because on first read it sounds like you're suggesting something horrifying and I hope there's a more generous interpretation I've missed.
Excess mortality seems like the best way to track the pandemic because determining whether someone died of covid can be debatable sometimes, but there can be no debate over whether someone died.
I know at least one person who’s having problems exacerbated by lack of mobility. Atrophy in old people can be a big problem. I would not go so far as to support anyone claiming this is why we should be breaking quarantine, but can’t quite support racking them all up as COVID deaths either. Reality is somewhere between the two (but close to “most” than “few”)
We combine excess mortality with other stats.
One of the reasons excess mortality has attracted so much attention is because there are a bunch of people saying that covid just isn't killing many people and we point to the pile of corpses and ask "what happened to them then?"
I'm very confounded by the "Excess mortality by age group" data in the US. It _appears_ as if the mortality increase is _almost the same for all age groups_, especially at the beginning and after the initial hump. 15-64 yr olds had a 32% higher chance of dying at the hump and stayed above 11% for most of the year. Wow. All the previous findings were that COVID is _extremely unlikely_ to kill you if you are under 50,…
That was first wave data. Second wave data has shown that the risk for younger people is higher than we thought.
I don't think this explains all that increase though.
How can we separate out deaths of despair (suicides, overdoses, etc.) brought on by lockdowns?
Here is the graph I got: https://imgur.com/N4lSSam
The drop-off at the end is because of reporting lag. There is more of a drop-off with these than other causes, presumably because producing a final death certificate takes more time on average (forensic autopsies, toxicology testing, etc.).
Through week 35, there were about 13,000 more non-natural cause deaths in 2020 over 2019.
By comparison, the number of excess deaths through week 35 was 258,846. That implies that 95% of the excess deaths were natural causes.
Here are some spreadsheets I've made from CDC data:
[1] Weekly counts of deaths by select causes [1] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G31ODc4eVgzg7etmcCV5...
[2] US Deaths by Week and Year [2] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qucznpabG1aUz0GSiDbi...
[3] U.S. Excess deaths by age [3] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rcGoWRsNxS_zJQ3pJtbW...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I know at least one person who’s having problems exacerbated by lack of mobility. Atrophy in old people can be a big problem. I would not go so far as to support anyone claiming this is why we should be breaking quarantine, but can’t quite support racking them all up as COVID deaths either. Reality is somewhere between the two (but close to “most” than “few”)
There are quite a few risk increases associated with general shutdown. This is one with large impact. Another large impact is mental illness, in particular presenting in suicide and substance abuse. On the other side, many other common risks are reduced: workplace injury, other transmissible ailments. If the purpose of the analysis is to determine whether the preventive measure is effective and not overwrought, an ex…