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Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

ourworldindata.org

11–20 of 121 posts

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#11

Any purpose to this post other than scaring people? How about you compare things to previous years instead.

Um, the nature of excess death is that it is comparing to previous years. This is a normal statistic we calculate to compare particular events to a long term trend, in this case as you see, this event (a global pandemic) has resulted in huge excess mortality in some countries such as the US.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#12
post #6
post #2

Excess mortality seems like the best way to track the pandemic because determining whether someone died of covid can be debatable sometimes, but there can be no debate over whether someone died.

I know at least one person who’s having problems exacerbated by lack of mobility. Atrophy in old people can be a big problem. I would not go so far as to support anyone claiming this is why we should be breaking quarantine, but can’t quite support racking them all up as COVID deaths either. Reality is somewhere between the two (but close to “most” than “few”)

I am confused by this. Either this person is only mobile in indoor spaces for some reason or this person lives somewhere they were doing police checkpoints if you leave your house (like Bangalore). I've spent at least 2x more hours outside, walking, riding bikes, hiking, hitting golf balls, etc. There's nothing else to do but be outside. The fact that I don't have to go into the office and no longer can or want to visit breweries and restaurants has been a great boon to my health and Vitamin D intake.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#13

In the New Zealand winter less people died than usual by more than 10% in some months - I suppose less flu cases

Yup. This also was also reported to have provided a weaker than usual signal for the seasonal Flu vaccine in the North. Each hemisphere uses data collected during the winter in the other hemisphere to guess what Influenza variants will be most common in their countries when it's their turn, then it takes several months to turn those guesses into bulk vaccine for immunising the elderly and vulnerable and give them a j…

> Sometimes the guess is right on the money and it's extremely effective, other years not so much.

Oh thats why some years it seems to work, others not, TIL.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#14
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know at least one person who’s having problems exacerbated by lack of mobility. Atrophy in old people can be a big problem. I would not go so far as to support anyone claiming this is why we should be breaking quarantine, but can’t quite support racking them all up as COVID deaths either. Reality is somewhere between the two (but close to “most” than “few”)

I am confused by this. Either this person is only mobile in indoor spaces for some reason or this person lives somewhere they were doing police checkpoints if you leave your house (like Bangalore). I've spent at least 2x more hours outside, walking, riding bikes, hiking, hitting golf balls, etc. There's nothing else to do but be outside. The fact that I don't have to go into the office and no longer can or want to vi…

Hm, interesting. I’m guessing it’s the lack of socialization more than a lack of movement that’s affecting people’s health.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#17

How can we separate out deaths of despair (suicides, overdoses, etc.) brought on by lockdowns?

I would expect deaths of despair to be slow-moving and not follow peaks of infection, as is with excess mortality:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-deat...

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#18
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know at least one person who’s having problems exacerbated by lack of mobility. Atrophy in old people can be a big problem. I would not go so far as to support anyone claiming this is why we should be breaking quarantine, but can’t quite support racking them all up as COVID deaths either. Reality is somewhere between the two (but close to “most” than “few”)

I am confused by this. Either this person is only mobile in indoor spaces for some reason or this person lives somewhere they were doing police checkpoints if you leave your house (like Bangalore). I've spent at least 2x more hours outside, walking, riding bikes, hiking, hitting golf balls, etc. There's nothing else to do but be outside. The fact that I don't have to go into the office and no longer can or want to vi…

Changing routines is hard. Just because people can spend time moving about outside doesn't mean they will. Just like because people can eat healthy food in appropriate amounts doesn't mean we don't have an obesity problem.

For example, someone could have used to walk to work, or walk to lunch. Or just spent more time walking about an office building than their home office. Or had a routine of hitting the gym after work, but be unable to find the same motivation to work out at home.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#19
post #6
post #2

Excess mortality seems like the best way to track the pandemic because determining whether someone died of covid can be debatable sometimes, but there can be no debate over whether someone died.

I know at least one person who’s having problems exacerbated by lack of mobility. Atrophy in old people can be a big problem. I would not go so far as to support anyone claiming this is why we should be breaking quarantine, but can’t quite support racking them all up as COVID deaths either. Reality is somewhere between the two (but close to “most” than “few”)

If you start looking at data more broken down by cause, there are huge surges in (not-confirmed-Covid) “pneumonia”, “stroke”, etc. deaths which very closely follow the distribution in place/time of confirmed Covid deaths.

The pattern is very clear and obvious, and not at all what you would expect if the primary cause were just something to do with being in lockdown.

Re: Excess mortality from March to December of 2020

#20
post #16

How can we separate out deaths of despair (suicides, overdoses, etc.) brought on by lockdowns?

Corona doesn’t kill you by overdose, hanging or self-inflicted gunshots.

Right, but idiots and the media will say "the excess mortality was X, so coronavirus killed X people", even if a large fraction of that was actually due to our response to corona.
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