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S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

reuters.com

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Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#431

Post by hapticmonkey »

root_axis wrote: post #324
Sargos wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You just explained to yourself why Bitcoins supply is fixed and can't feasibly be changed. It was a well made argument, good job.

No. Your belief that the bitcoin community will never choose to alter the supply of bitcoins is not the same thing as the properties of physics which constrain the practical transmutation of gold.

Any change to bitcoin's supply algorithm requires a hard fork of the blockchain. People have done it before but those forks are considered worthless by the community.

You're right that it is a community belief. If enough people were convinced that supply should be increased, they could fork the blockchain and move to the new chain. The change in supply would alter the price appropriately.

But that's no different to the community belief that it has any value to begin with. If everybody was convinced that gold was worthless (outside of its practical industrial uses), it would cease to be a store of value too.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#432

Post by NicoJuicy »

imaginenore wrote: post #319
NicoJuicy wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And where halve of the raise on crypto is because of tether...

I call BS. Bitcoin's trading volume has been between $20 and $50 billion USD per day (in the last year). Tether's total valuation is $19.4 billion. It's a drop in the bucket.

Then explain, by your own quote:

> Research by John M. Griffin and Amin Shams in 2018 suggests that trading associated with increases in the amount of tether and associated trading at the Bitfinex exchange account for about half of the price increase in bitcoin in late 2017.[29][11][23]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)

:)

In the past, ethereum was also highly automated trading.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#433

Post by fractionalhare »

acituan wrote: post #423
fractionalhare wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't say "low risk, high returns." It is a spectrum. What you've said in your first two sentences sounds fine as a textbook principle. But the real world is messier and opportunities don't just vanish: if you do the math on a basic risk parity strategy with the S&P and some uncorrelated ETF, you can see it will beat the market on a risk adjusted basis. Very often you can then leverage this up to a higher absolute…

> But the real world is messier and opportunities don't just vanish: if you do the math on a basic risk parity strategy with the S&P and some uncorrelated ETF, you can see it will beat the market on a risk adjusted basis. Sure, there are asymmetries in real life and information takes a while to dissipate to all agents, but unless you're a robo-trader doing high frequency temporal arbitrage, I don't buy for a second t…

Like I said, run through a basic risk parity strategy holding SPY and an uncorrelated ETF. Calculate the beta, volatility and return over 10 - 20 years. It does beat the market continuously on a risk adjusted basis. With leverage it also beats on total returns with lower volatility and beta.

Beating the market is not mysterious, it's just difficult to do it by a lot or at scale. Just because well performing portfolios are well known doesn't mean they cease being effective in principle, the way you seem to think would happen. These days a risk parity portfolio isn't enough to solicit funds from savvy investors because it's well known and they won't pay management/performance fees if that's all you're offering. But it's been a staple since Dalio developed it 30 years ago for good reason.

You can find code for running through the kinds of things I'm talking about, as well as more in-depth discussion here: https://qoppac.blogspot.com.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#434

Post by centimeter »

FridgeSeal wrote: post #357
centimeter wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that you cannot spend, You can spend it. > does not produce cash flow, Neither commodities nor currencies produce cash flow. People still reasonably invest in both. > and whose values are determined by other shmucks buying it from previous shmucks. The value of every other asset in existence is also determined by this process.

Bought any coffees (in person) with the crypto-currency of the week recently?

I don't drink coffee, but I bought a JLC Geophysic last week.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#436

Post by doggosphere »

dmitrygr wrote: post #430
doggosphere wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm enjoying sitting on the sidelines and watching people "save" in a fiat "currency" whose value is not linked to anything intrinsic, whose supply can magically be increased at the discretion of a few powerful individuals, and whose value has been declining relative to almost any tradeable assets. What a time to be alive. No wonder the M2 money supply is at an all time high. No one has any idea of what the intrinsic…

> whose value is not linked to anything intrinsic The value of US currency is backed, whether you like it or not, by US's military might. Very much not nothing

Can you take your dollars in to the government and redeem it for units of "military might", whatever that means?

You have it backwards. The military is an instrument in protecting the US dollar's dominance, control and influence as a reserve currency.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#437

Post by gzu »

andrewmcwatters wrote: post #401
doggosphere wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm enjoying sitting on the sidelines and watching people "save" in a fiat "currency" whose value is not linked to anything intrinsic, whose supply can magically be increased at the discretion of a few powerful individuals, and whose value has been declining relative to almost any tradeable assets. What a time to be alive. No wonder the M2 money supply is at an all time high. No one has any idea of what the intrinsic…

Central banking as it exists in the US is designed to encourage spending. One person’s spending becomes another’s income. Having finite dollars and increasing demand leads to a currency that only increases in value. If an asset increases in value, there is an incentive to acquire it and not part with it.

Central banks are trying to prop up the deflationary structural changes happening in the broader world economies due to aging demographics and technology reducing the value of human labor.

The end result is an enormous asset bubble as their only solution is to print money to prevent any actual deflation from happening as that would implode the financial system.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#438

Post by nootropicat »

andrewmcwatters wrote: post #276

I’m enjoying sitting on the sidelines and watching people “invest” in a digital “currency” that you cannot spend, does not produce cash flow, and whose values are determined by other shmucks buying it from previous shmucks. What a time to be alive. No wonder the S&P 500 CAPE ratio is beyond the 1929 high. No one has any idea of what the intrinsic value is of anything. Investing in companies that don’t make a profit,…

There's too much idle wealth in the world, or more precisely too many people with wealth have no idea what to do with it. It ends up 'invested' into negative yield assets like bitcoin (billions of dollars lost to mining per year - over 7 at the current price) or hyped companies running at perpetual loss.

Bitcoin is interesting because it's possibly the biggest actual wealth destructor from all tradeable assets. Companies can have large losses on paper, but how much of that is actual wealth destruction, and how much just redistribution to new owners? I suspect the fraction that's actually gone in the physical sense is very small, allowing wealth to slosh around for a long time. Bitcoin's proof of work is designed to actually destroy wealth in the physical sense - transformed into waste heat and devices designed to do nothing else. This means that it's eventually certain to be outcompeted even by redistribution-type loss schemes, as groups that stay away from bitcoin completely are going to be increasingly wealthier relatively to groups that buy into it.

In the short term it may not look like it, but what's happening is social redistribution of power away from people that think bitcoin is a great idea.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#439

Post by wayeq »

doggosphere wrote: post #436
dmitrygr wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> whose value is not linked to anything intrinsic The value of US currency is backed, whether you like it or not, by US's military might. Very much not nothing

Can you take your dollars in to the government and redeem it for units of "military might", whatever that means? You have it backwards. The military is an instrument in protecting the US dollar's dominance, control and influence as a reserve currency.

No, but you can pay your taxes with USD, and stay out of prison, which is kind of nice.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#440

Post by dcl »

centimeter wrote: post #434
FridgeSeal wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bought any coffees (in person) with the crypto-currency of the week recently?

I don't drink coffee, but I bought a JLC Geophysic last week.

Lovely, fitting watch for (crypto) nerd :)
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