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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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581–590 of 642 posts

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#581
post #573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, read my last line. The SWF is responsible for all the subsidies in the UAE, and if they collapse, it would mean we have far bigger problems. The SWF invests in all major indices across all major markets, and even in multiple private equity firms (including my old firm, which was one of the biggest in the world). The collapse of $1.1T worth of investments would be the signal of a global collapse. Imagine if Bla…

I read you last line, but “if it collapses we have bigger things to worry about” was essentially the same argument my father used when he advised me to invest in Lloyds bank — those shares lost 95% of their value since I bought them precisely because “something bigger to worry about” did in fact happen . Now I’m a software dev not an economist, so perhaps you know better, but I have been told that WW2 essentially ban…

You're willfully ignoring statements. Your father asked you to invest in one company's single security. The UAE, Singaporean and Norwegian wealth funds are invested in everything from real estate to stocks to bonds to private equity. If those funds were to fail, the cause of that would be because the underlying securities failed, which would imply a collapse of the global financial system.

As for the managers' capabilities, it's not some dude sitting in an office managing a trillion dollars - it's a team of highly brilliant investors who either invest directly or outsource the investing to multiple megafund investor firms across multiple risk profiles such as Blackrock or Blackstone or Vanguard or Citadel, all of whom hire really talented folks (unlike the typical investment banking industry). Nowhere near your dad advising you to invest in LBG.

Also the term "The Sun never sets on the British empire" implied geographical dominance across the world, not immortal dominance. Before you guys, it was the Spanish claiming that.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they are well prepared then they will actually do better after the oil is gone. The resource curse results in countries focusing on a few narrow industries. Resource extraction is easy but it only benefits those who are directly employed by it. Usually governments don't make it easy for other types of businesses to flourish because they can entirely support themselves on resource extraction.

Indeed. That said, what will they diversify to? I wonder if it will be solar energy generation due to natural abundance. Barring that, it will have to be something like high tech, which itself will be dependent on importing talented labour. That will only happen with low tax rates, with Dubai acting as a hub for transient talent looking to save for a few years, then head off. Meanwhile, given the local Emirati will f…

> I wonder if it will be solar energy generation due to natural abundance.

Yup, it’s happening. Gigawatts of solar power is being constructed. The UAE is getting this solar energy at the cheapest price per watt worldwide as well: https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2020/04/28/abu-dh...

> will be dependent on importing talented labour

This is already happening at a massive scale.

> That will only happen with low tax rate

This is also already true. The personal income tax rate is 0%. Most types of companies don’t pay any taxes either. The only tax you directly incur is the VAT of 5%.

> Will this be an ideal egalitarian society?

In the future, it’ll probably transform more and more into a sort of hyper-capitalistic and highly-successful country like Switzerland.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quote is actually likely from a member of Dubai Royal Family. An interesting fact here is that the UAE will never become poor . The UAE has saved up over 1.3 million USD dollars per citizen [a]. And this is just the government’s savings. Obviously, there’s immense private wealth on top of that as well. Even if with investment returns as low as 4% per year drawn out, that would translate to $52,000 per citizen . T…

> the UAE will never become poor But their land might become uninhabitable in a few decades.

They do have in fact one neighbor, Iran, in which in some places temperatures rise above 50°C, with high humidity, which is close to uninhabitable. And this is due to climate change, so it is going to get worse. I think it is possible this has ripple effects.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is already almost uninhabitable and has been for a long time. Nevertheless ~10M people live there. Technology is solving this, either the root cause or the symptoms

Air conditioning the outside is almost assuredly not sustainable.

Not sure what you mean “the outside”. Only indoors are air-conditioned (using electricity). And in the UAE, right now, electricity generation is slowly being switched over solar energy (away from natural gas), which is clean / renewable / sustainable. (https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/worlds-largest-...)

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#585
post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you think Saudi Arabia is slowly allowing women to participate? They need them in the workforce for an economically sustainable future. They know they are heading for crisis rapidly and investing hard to get out of there. However, they are ridiculously dependent on oil. Oil money is basically the whole country's sugar daddy (not for the slaves and foreign workers...). People don't really work there, they all j…

> Why do you think Saudi Arabia is slowly allowing women to participate? They need them in the workforce for an economically sustainable future. Do they? Has doubling the work-force helped Western economies? I think that Elizabeth Warren & others have questioned that idea - i.e. that the wages were reduced to compensate for the increased labour supply - although even if not beneficial for individual families it could…

You make a good point. More workers are just good for the capitalists, unless there is actual work to be done.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#586
post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought you try to adhere to facts, till I got to "the land is a glowing radioactive mess" thing. If you say so, please too mention the land which is poisonous carcinogenic mess because of coal sludge leaks, tar sand mining and fracking byproducts, heavy metals and pesticides which tend to concentrate in hydropower reservoirs, etc.etc. And some of these actually have longer half-life than nuclear leaks.

I'm not discussing or comparing fossil fuels, but rather renewables, and specifically hydro, with nuclear. Coal sludge, tar sands mining, and fracking have nothing to do with hydropower generation. Those are the activities renewable energy alternatives are specifically intended to replace, and as such, they address any related concerns directly. I'm unaware of any substantial credible literature describing toxic accu…

It is, sadly, not in widespread public awareness. But some research is there, such as [1] [2].

If a hydropower dam has been built today on lower Mississippi it would over time fill with a cubic-mile-worth of toxic sediment on the top of currently existing problems. This is not an exaggeration, an additional superfund site with a volume measured in cubic miles, due solely to the hydro project itself I don't see how else can it be construed.

[1]https://waterlawjournal.com/sedimentation-in-california-rese...

[2]https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-019-8146-y

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all, it's not slave labour that's employed in the construction industry or any of the other sectors. I think I can speak for this considering my relatives worked those "slave" jobs as you put it. The UAE had long been forced by the British and the Americans to abolish slavery before they gained their independence. This, unlike Saudi Arabia, where it was legal long after the 1970s. About the "slave" jobs, mos…

Don't they often take their passports and prevent them from leaving?

Who do you mean by “they”? Unscrupulous private companies with criminal managers that break the law?

A company taking a person’s passport is explicitly illegal in the UAE: https://dubaihow.com/holding-passport-employee-uae/

It carries a criminal prison sentence and a fine. And there’s a big push by the UAE government to go after, and prosecute employers who break this law.

I don’t know why people in Western countries, always without fail, mention this whenever the UAE comes up.

Imagine every time the US was mentioned, a person always pointed out how some private companies in the US treated their employees poorly and abusively (which I’m sure happens). It would be absurd.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Nuclear is extraordinarily expensive and often takes decades to plan and build. That's not necessarily true as countries like China are building new nuclear reactors in 4-5 years. Remember that nuclear is one of the few industries that designs for the worst case scenario which is part of the high cost. The other component of the high cost is often policy and overzealous bureaucracy. >On grids that still have gas & c…

> "A kWh from a wind turbine is absolutely not equal to a kWh from a coal/gas/nuclear/hydro plant due to the fact that the capacity factor for a typical wind turbine is around 20-30%." No, a kWh of energy produced by a wind turbine absolutely is equal to a kWh produced by any other means. You'd be correct to say that a kW of capacity is not equal. (ie: a 1 GW wind farm may not produce as much energy as a 1 GW nuclear…

yes, that's correct. i used the wrong idea there.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First of all, it's not slave labour that's employed in the construction industry or any of the other sectors. I think I can speak for this considering my relatives worked those "slave" jobs as you put it. The UAE had long been forced by the British and the Americans to abolish slavery before they gained their independence. This, unlike Saudi Arabia, where it was legal long after the 1970s. About the "slave" jobs, mos…

Don't they often take their passports and prevent them from leaving?

What you're referring to happens in Saudi Arabia and Qatar (and used to happen until the mid 2000s in the UAE, when a Federal decree was passed which stated the criminal sentence explicitly). Saudi Arabia and Qatar haven't abolished the practice.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#590
post #515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The quote is actually likely from a member of Dubai Royal Family. An interesting fact here is that the UAE will never become poor . The UAE has saved up over 1.3 million USD dollars per citizen [a]. And this is just the government’s savings. Obviously, there’s immense private wealth on top of that as well. Even if with investment returns as low as 4% per year drawn out, that would translate to $52,000 per citizen . T…

> Even if with investment returns as low as 4% That line of reasoning always make me smile. That's like assuming that once you get a certain threshold of wealth, you can automatically assume you'll be fine forever. And by the way, that "as low as 4%"... Most people throw percentages all around the table, easy like that... Seems funny. Call me stupid, but the idea of a whole country being able to piggyback off all oth…

Do you realize most 401(k) and IRA accounts in the US are all invested securities (like equities and bonds)? Similarly, most wealthy people invest their money in general?

Also, I didn’t pull the 4% out of a hat. It’s actually the “Safe Withdrawal Rate[a]” recommended by Mr. Money Mustache. See his blog posts on it: https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/05/29/how-much-do-i-nee...

Also, see: https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/11/29/how-to-retire-for...

[a] Bogleheads article on Safe withdrawal rates: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Safe_withdrawal_rates

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