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S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

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Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#201
The economy is a scam. All the newly printed money which has gone into tech over the past decade is a scam. The only thing that mattered at all was your social connections; doesn't matter what the project was.

Is it a coincidence that the two fastest growing assets are owned by people who share a common history?

Mark Zuckerberg is the biggest shareholder in Facebook and the Winklevoss twins are the biggest Bitcoin investors... That's no coincidence. It's all about social connections. Your social proximity to Mark Zuckerberg and Winklevoss twins determines your future success 100%. Everything else doesn't matter. If that sounds ridiculous, that's because it is. It's a giant financial pyramid scheme.

In any pyramid scheme, those closest to the originator of the scheme make the most money... The difference in this case is that they can keep printing money forever so the scheme doesn't ever need to collapse.

The sooner we realize this, the sooner we will be able to fix the monetary system and go back to normal.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Ponzi Scheme relies on a central authority, BTC has none. I think you just mean "scheme?"

There is Satoshi's wallet in the root, no need for authority as we can see.

Yes, there is need for a central authority, Charles Ponzi for example. They actively and consciously channel the funds from new, defrauded investors, to that authority.

BTC is not a Ponzi Scheme ; Satoshi is not steering the profits from a pump-and-dump. Passively profiting off new investors buying BTC does not make a Ponzi Scheme.

Market manipulation is not a Ponzi Scheme. A Pyramid Scheme is not a Ponzi Scheme. "Ponzi Scheme" has a real definition.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#203

Someone please explain this to me: How is any cryptocurrency even considered an investment vehicle? I would classify myself as Boglehead and I believe in the fundamentals of investing in stocks because in all it's technicality (and given the buy-and-hold strategy), you are investing in a business by owning a part of it which naturally means that you will and do get the returns on it, both in terms of profits (dividen…

Bitcoin has only two core benefits, store of value, and unconditional point to point transactions. The key investment question is will people value these features more or less in the future.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Not so with Bitcoin: the total supply is fixed at 21M, forever, and there's no central authority with the power to change that. But as TFA indicates, there are over 500 other crypto coins. When anyone can create a new one they become irrelevant.

Anyone can create a Craigslist clone, but somehow they still make 100s of millions of dollars per year.

And not just a craigslist clone, but a much much better one too!

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#205

Someone please explain this to me: How is any cryptocurrency even considered an investment vehicle? I would classify myself as Boglehead and I believe in the fundamentals of investing in stocks because in all it's technicality (and given the buy-and-hold strategy), you are investing in a business by owning a part of it which naturally means that you will and do get the returns on it, both in terms of profits (dividen…

This is easy. You made an analogy to stocks and ignored the entire universe of investments and other asset classes.

Doesn't that tell you all you need to know?

There is a decade old meme of getting stock market gurus to comment about crypto and their sycophants repeating their predictably abysmal view of something outside of their wheelhouse.

Commodities traders never had an issue and volatility is also not an issue in that market. There are no “permabulls” in commodities outside of a few rare metals, and trading in those markets primarily factors in seasonal and cyclical supply and demand.

Buy and hold works ok in some crypto assets. But the permabulls that never traded anything else, and the stock market investors that keep a stock certificate their grandma gave them 20 years ago should just not be in this market.

You are conflating “good” investment vehicle with “valid” investment vehicle, where its a mixture of whether being a permabull works alongside whether enough institutions that you respect have said positive things. make your own choices about what you want to trade.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#206

No brainer considering to buy ETH on the stock market via grayscale you're paying a 104% premium. The demand (e.g. within registered & margin accounts) is there. https://ycharts.com/companies/ETHE/discount_or_premium_to_na... Aside: Seems covid is accelerating understanding & adoption of crypto. I remember when I couldn't perform a wire transfer for a full week back in March '20 - at one of the most reputable banks g…

> I couldn't perform a wire transfer for a full week back in March '20 - at one of the most reputable banks globally Can you explain this in more detail?

If you cross borders your transaction might get stuck. Also some institutions will refuse to send or receive from less popular counterparties. Combine that with all the anti-money laundering regulations and KYC laws everywhere making a bureaucratic mess.

In Swift it's common to specify a routing/intermediary entity which usually is a bigger bank or a branch in NYC/London to work around this mess. And surprise, you get terrible FX rates and magic fees on both ends. One transaction this year across my own accounts took 4 business days and cost ~$40, within the same continent across two top 10 banks. Now I do everything with TransferWise and it's much better. Hopefully soon I'll just use crypto. It's my own hard earned money, damnit. Fingers crossed.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#207

Someone please explain this to me: How is any cryptocurrency even considered an investment vehicle? I would classify myself as Boglehead and I believe in the fundamentals of investing in stocks because in all it's technicality (and given the buy-and-hold strategy), you are investing in a business by owning a part of it which naturally means that you will and do get the returns on it, both in terms of profits (dividen…

It's more analagous to buying some gold for your investment portfolio than buying a fiat currency that has its inflation under control by a central government.

I basically agree with this but I just want to add that if everyone decides to increase the total amount of bitcoins or change the inflation controls in some way, that can be done.

The cool thing about bitcoin is that this is a shared decision made by everyone.

Ok, technically, it is made by the groups contributing the majority of compute power to the network. And technically, central governments can be representative of everyone and therefor enable that same shared decision making but that's kind of a bigger discussion.

The point is, changing the network to "add more" BTC is probably much more likely than breakthrough replicator technology that can turn hydrogen atoms into gold atoms.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#208

Someone please explain this to me: How is any cryptocurrency even considered an investment vehicle? I would classify myself as Boglehead and I believe in the fundamentals of investing in stocks because in all it's technicality (and given the buy-and-hold strategy), you are investing in a business by owning a part of it which naturally means that you will and do get the returns on it, both in terms of profits (dividen…

> I believe in the fundamentals of investing in stocks because in all it's technicality (and given the buy-and-hold strategy), you are investing in a business by owning a part of it which naturally means that you will and do get the returns on it, both in terms of profits (dividends) and and value growth (appreciation of the stock value). And conventional wisdom of lending also applies to bonds.

Except that is not technically true. Unless buying stocks purely for dividends, you are investing in a secondary market of shares and the "value" you're talking about is the expected value the other secondary market participants will appraise the stock for, independent of the company's operations. There is only a directional correlation because there is a tacit assumption between the investors to equivocate between the two. If you look at the historical trends of P/E of S&P composite price index, prices have gone way more up than the actual earnings.[1] so there is an element of wishful self-deception here.

Consider this; bitcoin might one day build enough track record to prove itself a good enough investment for a large amount of people, and then the stock market will have to seriously compete with this non-derivative instrument for investment money of those people, which will reduce the price of stocks in aggregate, independent of the "value" of underlying company performances.

If you take that into account, crypto-or-not a currency is simply another instrument which we bet for the future expected value for gains. In fact, while the value of traditional currencies are backed by their purchasing power performance in a given market, crypto currencies theoretically don't have that limit because it has unlimited supranational reach.

Mind you, US stock markets have at most one century of roughly-comparable historical data, and that is just not enough sample size to make 30-50 year assumptions (speaking for retirement buy-and-hold strategies).

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market#/media/File:IE_Re...

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#209

No brainer considering to buy ETH on the stock market via grayscale you're paying a 104% premium. The demand (e.g. within registered & margin accounts) is there. https://ycharts.com/companies/ETHE/discount_or_premium_to_na... Aside: Seems covid is accelerating understanding & adoption of crypto. I remember when I couldn't perform a wire transfer for a full week back in March '20 - at one of the most reputable banks g…

I don't understand NAV premiums when it comes to ETH. What does this mean?

The fund has 100 ETH. Let's assume the price of ETH is $1.

The NAV of the fund is $100. A premium of 100% means that the fund is trading at $200.

This means that there is an arbitrage opportunity: https://medium.com/amber-group/grayscale-gbtc-and-ethe-arbit...

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#210
post #145

Someone please explain this to me: How is any cryptocurrency even considered an investment vehicle? I would classify myself as Boglehead and I believe in the fundamentals of investing in stocks because in all it's technicality (and given the buy-and-hold strategy), you are investing in a business by owning a part of it which naturally means that you will and do get the returns on it, both in terms of profits (dividen…

One answer to this question is that Ethereum will soon become a "real investment" because fees will accrue to ETH holders and the huge expense of electricity-intensive proof of work mining will be discontinued forever. Here is how it'll work - in 2021, an improvement to the Ethereum network known as EIP-1559 will launch, causing a portion of all new transaction fees to be burned/destroyed, which is effectively a "sto…

>How is any cryptocurrency even considered an investment vehicle? [...] [Y]ou are investing in a business by owning a part of it which naturally means that you will and do get the returns on it[.]

That is how Ethereum works. Validators get returns from Ethereum by holding shares, i.e. ETH. Validators, after EIP-1559, will be paid with newly minted ETH and anything over the base burn fee. (Currently there is no mandatory burning of fees.)

To stake in ETH 2.0 a stand alone validator needs 32 ETH (~$20,000). It reminds me of Outback's business model of requiring managers to buy in as stake holders (https://hbr.org/2005/09/a-stake-in-the-business).

This is before all the crazy features that can be built on top of eth-as-programmatic-money, such as lending. https://defipulse.com/

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