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S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

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171–180 of 571 posts

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#171

Someone please explain this to me: How is any cryptocurrency even considered an investment vehicle? I would classify myself as Boglehead and I believe in the fundamentals of investing in stocks because in all it's technicality (and given the buy-and-hold strategy), you are investing in a business by owning a part of it which naturally means that you will and do get the returns on it, both in terms of profits (dividen…

It's analogous to investing money in USD or GBP before those countries were given a license to print as many USD and GBP as they wanted. Before then (1931 for the pound and 1933 for the dollar, though they maintained de-facto parity with gold until 1971), dollars and pounds were considered good investments. That's why we had bank runs: people thought their money would be safer under their mattress, and preferred to o…

The 21M can absolutely be changed. It's not a law of physics, it's just a line of code that can be changed. If enough people agree to it, it can be changed, they can even change the number of coins you get for successfully mining a block.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#172
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It shouldn't be called an investment. Investment supposed to be spent on the production of new value. Bitcoin, despite its good intentions, is a pyramid scheme — its price grows only because of newcomers. I wrote a blog post about why it's a bad "investment" — https://dandanua.github.io/posts/why-i-wouldnt-recommend-usi...

Since there is a limited supply of Bitcoin, people are buying Bitcoin now with the hope that there will be more demand for the limited supply in the future. There is a hope that Bitcoin becomes "useful", thus driving demand. Since supply is fixed, demand causes an increase in value. So, it's a speculative "investment". I suppose whether it's an "investment" depends on your definition of "investment".

It's useful and it has demand for its use. But most people buy it only to make a fortune. This makes it a Ponzi scheme. No contradiction here.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#173

Someone please explain this to me: How is any cryptocurrency even considered an investment vehicle? I would classify myself as Boglehead and I believe in the fundamentals of investing in stocks because in all it's technicality (and given the buy-and-hold strategy), you are investing in a business by owning a part of it which naturally means that you will and do get the returns on it, both in terms of profits (dividen…

Pretty sure 90% of retail crypto investors are just FOMOing, but more and more people are excited by the technology and looking for creative applications. DeFi has been interesting to watch.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is what risk is.... not knowing. If you want high reward from an investment, you need to take high risks, which means you will invest without knowing something. Now, some risks are smarter than others...

That's not necessarily a good idea. You don't need to take on higher risk for a higher return. It's usually better to leverage risk-adjusted returns rather than chase high total returns with commensurate risk. You can take on more risk that if you have the appetite, but if that's the case you could also just use levered beta (e.g. 3x levered S&P 500). This would significantly improve your portfolio while still being…

if you leverage your risk for a higher return you _also_ increase your risk

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll try to use my elevator pitch: With cryptocurrency, you're right they're not an "investment" in the traditional sense. Right now more of a long-term gamble. In my opinion the value is in the network and the ability to move money instantly (or at very least faster than traditional methods), securely, to anywhere in the world for a fraction of a cent. That ability alone is valuable and hasn't existed until now. The…

Okey, calling it a "long-term gamble" only sounds fair to me. Talking about value, isn't blockchain / crypto analogous to a medium that enables moving money quickly? If yes, internet would be similar in some sense (we have instant local money transfers these days) but we don't have anything that tracks internet as an investment. Coming back to it, I can rationalize myself investing in a money transfer business that i…

Think of it that way, payment processing is a valuable product, especially online. It's costly and challenging to take money from one person and send it to the other in a secure and trusted way. So companies come along to offer it as a service, like PayPal, Stripe, and you can think of CreditCard companies as well.

So you could imagine yourself investing in those correct?

Alright, now imagine I made an open source software that lets two people process a payment between each other? They can just install the software on their computer, and suddenly they can start transacting money with one another? For free! No need for PayPal or Visa anymore. So what's the catch?

The catch is that software can't actually move real physical money around, that requires trucks and truck drivers and safes, and all that. So it's not possible to move USD dollars with software alone.

What does PayPal do then?

PayPal enters into an agreement with your bank or credit card. When you send me 100$ through PayPal. PayPal and your bank agree that eventually 100$ will be moved from your bank to PayPal's bank account. That is done digitally, and both PayPal and your bank write that down in their system on their own ledger. Now PayPal assumes it will eventually have 100$, and it agrees with my bank to eventually deposit 97$ into my bank account. Similarly PayPal and my bank write that down.

Now eventually money will actually get moved physically, but it'll play catch up. You, me, PayPal, and our banks, we all trust each other, so we assume it will be moved for sure, and so even before that happens you might have sent me some item through the mail in exchange for that money.

Now back to my open source software alternative to PayPal. What if instead of this big dance, and eventual physical exchange of money. What if we made a currency that was fully digital? So when you processed a payment with my software, you arn't exchanging USD dollars, but something I shall call Bitcoin instead. That can easily be exchanged through software alone, no need to actually physically move anything.

Well, there's a few challenge to this. First, since the software is open source and we're each running it (no central service), how can we trust that you removed the amount you gave me from your account? And that I didn't add more than what you gave me to mine? That's where cryptography comes into play.

Okay, so now let's assume I figured out the tech, so my open source software can truly be used to exchange securely and without possible cheating some amount of a digital currency between two parties without any central coordinator. Now we have the problem of how do you get some of that currency in the first place before you can exchange it?

Well, my software also guarantees that there's only 1 million coins of it max. And as the author, I gave myself 100k coins. And I randomly distributed the rest amongst the first thousand users.

Now you were a lucky one, and you have 100 coin if it. So again, maybe I want to buy something from you, but you're in another country. So I tell you, I'll give you 100 of my crypto coin, exchanged through my open source software, and you'll send me by mail my item I buy from you.

Perfect, now we have a way to exchange a currency without having to physically move anything, it is fully handled by software and can be exchanged over the internet only.

So maybe you say, well what can you buy with my coins? Well, you started selling goods in exchange for them? And so did others. So maybe Joe Blo sells Video Games and accepts my coin in exchange for them. And you sell plants. So now you can use my coins to buy video games from Joe and he can use them to buy plants from you. And so on. So the coins are slowly starting to be worth real assets, as more and more people start to accept them in exchange for goods and services they'll be worth more and more.

What's cool about a fully digital currency is that exchanging it is super fast, easy and cheap. It's just really convenient. You might also believe it to be more trust worthy then the agreement between PayPal and our banks, if you think the tech is harder to cheat. And you might believe the software is more stable than some government backed currency at managing inflation. So you might actually find that my software and my currency is overall more convenient, more secure, more safe, and more stable as a currency to exchange and trade in, so maybe you just fully move to it and stop accepting USD in exchange for plants.

Now back to investment. Say you thought that this piece of software was amazing, and you believe that people will slowly stop using other payment processors in favour for it. Well, sell your stock in PayPal cause eventually everyone will move to using my software instead. Now you want a piece of that pie, but I don't sell stock, and I don't sell my software for money, it's free and open source. Except there'd still a way for you to profit from my software gaining in popularity. If you find a way to acquire some of its digital coins, for less than what people will be willing to exchange for them in the future, you can profit from it. Thus it becomes an investment vehicle.

Sorry for the length, hope that explains it though.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#176
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since there is a limited supply of Bitcoin, people are buying Bitcoin now with the hope that there will be more demand for the limited supply in the future. There is a hope that Bitcoin becomes "useful", thus driving demand. Since supply is fixed, demand causes an increase in value. So, it's a speculative "investment". I suppose whether it's an "investment" depends on your definition of "investment".

It's useful and it has demand for its use. But most people buy it only to make a fortune. This makes it a Ponzi scheme. No contradiction here.

A Ponzi Scheme relies on a central authority, BTC has none. I think you just mean "scheme?"

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#177
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's analogous to investing money in USD or GBP before those countries were given a license to print as many USD and GBP as they wanted. Before then (1931 for the pound and 1933 for the dollar, though they maintained de-facto parity with gold until 1971), dollars and pounds were considered good investments. That's why we had bank runs: people thought their money would be safer under their mattress, and preferred to o…

The supply of capital-B Bitcoin is 21M, but at any time, anyone can create Bitcoin2, which is an exact clone of Bitcoin but with a fresh chain. Any Bitcoin2 token has exactly the same utility as a Bitcoin token in principle - the only difference is that, for now at least, lots of people are mining Bitcoin and no one is mining Bitcoin2. If there comes a day when a lot of people think there should be 42M bitcoins, inst…

It's easy to create a fork of software.

It's hard to create a fork of firmware running in people's minds.

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The Politics of Bitcoin: Software as Right-Wing Extremism"... just wow. Is it crazy to consider that crypto companies might simply provide better tools than a lot of banks, therefore driving worldwide adoption?

Your argument here makes it sound like people are using crypto for practical applications on a scale approaching banks. If that was the case I would be far less skeptical, but, aside form a few enthusiasts that make crypto transactions to make a point that "people use these" I don't know of anyone that uses crypto for practical, everyday financial transactions. Can you provide me some evidence that people are using c…

yes but that is a use. bitcoin is useful as a savings technology. that is how monetary technology should work, especially at first

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recommend you read some of Stephen Deihl's thoughts on the subject[0]. You're not alone if you feel that cryptocurrency doesn't make sense as an investment vehicle, but the HN community will make you feel crazy for not seeing what a great thinking this is an incredible new opportunity and "things are different this time!" There is no better indication of a bubble then people telling you that you're the crazy one fo…

> There is no better indication of a bubble then people telling you that you're the crazy one for questioning it. I remember people telling me I was crazy for not buying a house in 2007, and crazy for not trading tech stocks in 1999. I'm not sure that's a good indicator with so many counter examples: the internet, large touch screen phones, Cloud in the earlier days, etc. We truly have no idea what the future if Cryp…

Bitcoin has been around for about a decade now. It didn’t take anywhere near that long for the internet, large touch screen phones, the cloud, etc. to really catch on.

And for every technological advance met with skepticism that eventually succeeded, there are orders of magnitude more that crashed and burned (e.g., the segway, 3D televisions, HD DVD, and countless others)

Re: S&P Dow Jones Indices to launch cryptocurrency indexes in 2021

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll try to use my elevator pitch: With cryptocurrency, you're right they're not an "investment" in the traditional sense. Right now more of a long-term gamble. In my opinion the value is in the network and the ability to move money instantly (or at very least faster than traditional methods), securely, to anywhere in the world for a fraction of a cent. That ability alone is valuable and hasn't existed until now. The…

> In my opinion the value is in the network and the ability to move money instantly (or at very least faster than traditional methods), securely, to anywhere in the world for a fraction of a cent. That ability alone is valuable and hasn't existed until now. I spent some time working in a relatively-unknown but high volume clearing bank. Banks can and do move billions instantly, and have done so for years through SWIF…

the cost/speed of transaction value of Bitcoin is probably overstates vs existing alternatives. The real bitcoin advantage is that bitcoin transactions require no authority's approval in order to make the transaction. Meaning you can still make the transaction even your residing country decides you are an enemy of the state. Imagine having the power to control your finances as you wish even if you are a dissident in an authoritarian regime.
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