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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#351

Post by fy20 »

throwaway201103 wrote: post #80
WalterBright wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We already have cheap "batteries" in our homes. Run the electric water heater when the power is cheap. Water in the tank stays hot for a couple days. The only piece missing here is an internet-connected thermostat for the tank that inquires about the spot price for electricity and turns on when it's cheap. The same thing applies to your HVAC system.

You're exaggerating a bit. Water heater will stay hot for a day or so, but will rapidly cool when you start using it and cold water flows in. House will be uncomfortably cold after a few hours in the wintertime if the heat is not running, and it's not really practical to overheat it when electric rates are low/free because you can only go maybe 10 degrees before it's really too warm for comfort. You'd need a heat tan…

A lot of these issues "house will be uncomfortable cold" are because the way houses have been built previously (and still are in a lot of places) is horribly inefficient. In my country (it's -5c outside now, so not exactly warm) the building standards dictate new houses must consume no more than 15W/m2/year of heat energy for heating.

To convert that to US units, that means a 3000sqft house somewhere were electricity is $0.15c/kWh would cost $600/year to heat from electric baseboard heaters. If you have a heat pump you could bring that down to $200/year - and that's before you even consider solar.

I live in a 5 year old apartment, and haven't even turned on the heating this season, but it's still a comfortable 20c/68F inside.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#352

Post by oa335 »

jhallenworld wrote: post #191

You know what's amazing? Farmers in rural Pakistan choosing to prefer solar to irrigate their crops (panels + VFD/inverter + 10 HP 3-phase motor): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfNgF0WTeCM Or grinding wheat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G2evJOiU9I The comments in these video are all about how much does it cost, what is your contact number, etc. Clearly this is a sea-change. Also amazing that they all have cell…

Definitely a sea change happening. I’ve noticed a proliferation of “village life” YouTube channels from Pakistan... it seems that cheap solar power, cellular internet, and cheap smartphones is bringing a whole new class of people online and enriching their lives both materially and culturally.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#353

Post by KuhlMensch »

mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

If you install your own panels, you can of course simply sell back to the electricity company.

In South Australia, a few roof panels, gets you enough credits to essentially run the AC without needing to consider the power cost.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#354

Post by blowfish721 »

vbezhenar wrote: post #201
sxates wrote: post #125

Personal anecdote - my house has two sets of solar panels on the roof - the first was installed in 2017, the second was just installed last month. In 2017 my 6kw system cost $24,000 before any incentives (by SolarCity). In 2020 my 7.8kw system cost $15,000 before any incentives (by Tesla). Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. It'…

From my perspective those costs are massive. I'm considering building a whole house from bricks which will cost $30-$40k. I probably won't spend $15k for electricity for all of my life. I don't understand western economy. You've got extremely costly electricity and you're claiming that solar power is good. It might be true for you, but it won't ever come to me at those prices. I'm paying $0.03 for kW⋅h. I'm spending…

But you have to factor in that the majority of the cost is installation. I’m going to bet that labor cost in your country isn’t nowhere the cost of that. If the labor cost in your country was the same as the US then your current power cost would be that low either.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#355

Post by SulfurHexaFluri »

gwbas1c wrote: post #314
mrfusion wrote: post #179

I hate the argument that we’re just waiting for batteries now. I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. Say something like power costs .02/kWh while the sun is shining and .30 when it’s not. I’d charge my car at work. I’d put a timer on my dryer to turn on at 10am. They probably come out with a hot water heater that goes really hot during the day a…

> I think if we had variable pricing that matched the availability of renewables, consumers would shift quickly. If you dig around enough, you'll find plenty of stories of variable electricity costs. From what I understand, it's more common for business customers instead of residential. (Apparently chillers that freeze water overnight with cheap electricity to run daytime air conditioning is a thing.) But anyway, I h…

A coworker recently showed me that they have a non commercial power plan/contract where they get hourly prices based on market rate. In South Australia where the sun is pretty intense, his power prices literally go negative for a few hours.

Now if you had variable loads or a battery you could schedule them to buy and sell power based on the market rate. Since very few people have the ability to do this, you can constantly beat the market on an almost daily basis. Tesla in fact already does this. Not only do they profit from this buying and selling, the grid becomes stabilized because the high and low demand periods become smoothed.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#356

Post by peteretep »

willis936 wrote: post #174
dsr_ wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The House of Saud has a plan. It isn't going quite as well as they had hoped, but it's going. Aramco was IPO'd. They wanted a trillion dollar valuation, and didn't get it. The next step is to sell that stock before the oil market collapses, preferably leaving themselves with a lot of cash and a minority stake in a much smaller company. Cash is going into technology stocks, venture funds, and international real estate…

Who is going to buy a trillion dollar stake in a shrinking market?

People who think there’s more than a trillion dollars left in that market?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#357

Post by SulfurHexaFluri »

Jedd wrote: post #173
sxates wrote: post #125

Personal anecdote - my house has two sets of solar panels on the roof - the first was installed in 2017, the second was just installed last month. In 2017 my 6kw system cost $24,000 before any incentives (by SolarCity). In 2020 my 7.8kw system cost $15,000 before any incentives (by Tesla). Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. It'…

I'll add some anecdata from Australia. My neighbour had a 5kW system put on, single-phase inverter, about three years ago - for ~ A$7000. I've just put a deposit down for installation of 12kW of panels with a 10kW three-phase inverter for A$7400 Same provider, though I haven't compared breakdown of costs (I'm assuming very similar installation / labour costs).

I wonder how the economics on this work. Does it make more sense to wait or does it make more sense to buy at any point since you always win?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#358

Post by [deleted] »

biren34 wrote: post #333

I have real problem with this discussion of "cheap" when it comes to wind and solar. 1. The marginal cost per kWh is calculated based on amortizing upfront costs over 20+ years, and those schedules have often proven to be quite optimistic. 2. The marginal cost per kWh is only a small piece of the puzzle when it comes to intermittent power sources. The proper cost needs to attribute the cost of matching supply and dem…

[deleted]

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#359

Post by jhallenworld »

bausano_michael wrote: post #254
jhallenworld wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A good cash crop unfortunately... To complete the picture, here is how you can drill the well in the first place: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn7twImE2ug

Thank you for the link. Satistying to watch tradition meet modernish equipment. Would you know how long does a tube well like this yield water? Do the farmers regularly deepen the drill or just find a new location?

I don't know, but one thing occurs to me: those ponds the opium growers make are essentially batteries.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#360

Post by nl »

xyzzyz wrote: post #323
nl wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your link says that at best we could double our current hydro generation capacity No, it says "that without building a single new dam" [hydro could roughly double its existing capacity in the US]. I'll assume you just misread that, but in any case that's pretty different to building new dams, or utilising tech like mines, or at-sea pumped storage.

> No, it says "that without building a single new dam" [hydro could roughly double its existing capacity in the US]. No, that's not what it says. It says: > The report estimates that without building a single new dam, these available hydropower resources, if fully developed, could provide an electrical generating capacity of more than 12 gigawatts (GW), equivalent to roughly 15 percent of current U.S. hydropower capa…

Yes, sorry you are right!

My error was confusing the "7% total capacity" and "15% existing capacity" not being off the same baseline.

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