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Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

thewalrus.ca

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Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#101

Post by [deleted] »

holstvoogd wrote: post #21
cmrdporcupine wrote: post #11

To put it in context, this is a Canadian magazine, and here in Canada the housing market is just absolutely insanely irrational. There has been no downwards housing price "correction" since the early 90s. The 2008 bubble-pop never happened here. Interest rates remain at record lows and the COVID-19 crisis seems to have led to massive _increase_ in housing prices rather than a decrease. It's a huge distorted market wi…

> The 2008 bubble-pop never happened here. I live in the Netherlands and that seems to be roughly what happened here too. ~~I mean, yes the prices have dropped a tiny bit around 2008, but in 2009 they were at an all time high again and have not come down.~~ EDIT: This was a lie, turns out they bottomed out around 2013 at ~25% below the 2008 peak. I live in a 'provincial' city, where prices are ~40-50% of what you mig…

[deleted]

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#102

Post by tuatoru »

tmnvix wrote: post #96

I don’t believe that there is a shortage of homes. The demand we are seeing is driven by investment. There are many more empty and low-use properties out there than most would suspect. Hear me out. Reported vacancy rates (the ones you’ll hear quoted in the media) are usually discovered by asking real estate agencies how many of the properties on their books are currently available to rent. Actual empty residences are…

> Curious about what the case might be in New Zealand

Bad. It's a system trap, where everyone wrings their hands but no-one actually wants to do anything about the problem - in fact, the reverse.[1]

I worry about Stein's Law: "If it cannot go on, it will stop." I.e., there will be a correction some day. The question is, do we want a slow, controlled correction, or an uncontrolled one?

Edit: The linked opinion piece doesn't speak directly to vacancy rates, but there's a lot of that. As you say, it's due to the fact that real estate was favoured over every other kind of investment for the last 50 years at least, and successive governments resolutely turning a blind eye to the obstacles that local authorities put in the way of new development. Oh, and not requiring business migrants to build new.

1. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300168640/...

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#103

Post by digianarchist »

corey_moncure wrote: post #17
alex_anglin wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One important difference to note in your Japan comparison is that Japan is experiencing population decline, which would explain weak demand and decreasing prices. Home ownership as an investment in North America has been driven by demand exceeding supply, among other factors, which make a difference from an investment perspective.

This is incorrect. Many of the factors that make the Japan real estate market what it is are codified into law. Furthermore the qualities attested to by the grandparent post are invariant with the current demographic trends, and have existed for a very long time. Long story short, Japan real estate is weird and unique, not a good subject for off the cuff generalizations.

Japans housing regulations are also made at the national level rather than the local level which reduces Nimbyism.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#104

Post by 908B64B197 »

senko wrote: post #46

Ah, the difference between Europe and America. Here, a 300-400sqft single-bedroom apartmant would be considered standard and suitable for a single or 2-person household with median income. A two-bedroom 500-600 sqft apt would be considered just fine for most families with 1 or two kids (esp. if those kids are same gender or while they're small). Anything above that gets you into upper-middle class or above. Alternati…

European cities are much denser. A small apartment doesn't sound so bad when there's exceptional public transit right at the door and well maintained and safe public parks.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#105

Post by 908B64B197 »

MattGaiser wrote: post #34

The housing crisis is really a people refuse to leave Toronto and Vancouver crisis, no matter how little they make. It is also a refusal to live in anything without a lawn. Imagine if San Francisco had wages which were often lower than Cleveland for many jobs, but had the same housing prices. That is the state of Toronto and Vancouver. Incomes there are lower than other Canadian cities. The other issue is that Canadi…

> Wages can't rise either as there are tons of people who are willing to stay in Toronto no matter how relatively poorer they are as a result. In an economically rational market, people would leave Toronto over the costs and salaries would rise (like they have in San Francisco, where people have left to Seattle and Denver and remote work over pay not going very far). That is not happening in any meaningful quantity.

That's because of the out of control immigration quotas.

It's still a better deal to live in Toronto than in their home country for a lot of people around the world. Combine this with an extremely conservative investment landscape and that's what you get, over speculation on "safe" assets and a lack of funding for other businesses.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#106

Post by senko »

benmller313 wrote: post #89
senko wrote: post #46

Ah, the difference between Europe and America. Here, a 300-400sqft single-bedroom apartmant would be considered standard and suitable for a single or 2-person household with median income. A two-bedroom 500-600 sqft apt would be considered just fine for most families with 1 or two kids (esp. if those kids are same gender or while they're small). Anything above that gets you into upper-middle class or above. Alternati…

Are you exaggerating or is it really normal for a family of 4 to live in a 500 sqft apartment? This seems impossibly tiny to me.

Depends on the floor plan: 500 would be on the "cramped" side for 4, 600 should be just fine.

The "trick" here is that all the rooms (& bathroom, kitchen, etc) are small and well though out so you really use up most of the space - basically the "empty" space would only be there if neccesary for movement.

Here's a quick example (~430sqft not counting the balcony): https://www.njuskalo.hr/image-w920x690/nekretnine/rudes-jabl... This would be okay while the kids are small, and having an extra ~100sqft would add another room for the other kid, or have larger kids' room.

So yeah - fascinating to compare the expectations on both sides of the pond.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#107

Post by greggman3 »

mettamage wrote: post #10
greggman3 wrote: post #5

I don't have a clue what any solution looks like or even what problem is trying to be solved. Growing up in the USA home "ownership" is always touted as an investment but for example in Japan, it's often more like buying a car. The moment you buy it it's a used house and the price goes down just like a car would. The point being home ownership is viewed differently. Also, the recent episode of the Flash Forward podca…

Wait, so does that mean it's relatively cheap to rent or buy in Japan? I know Japan is not a cheap country, but I was wondering relative to other Western countries. I might want to research if I'd want to live in Japan for a couple of years then, and simply become a remote worker.

Japan can be extremely cheap. (Well, it's all relative)

Downtown Tokyo, like Aoyama or Roppongi are expensive, just like Upper West Side Manhattan is expensive. Move out to Saitama/Chiba/Kanagawa (20-30 minute commute to downtown tokyo) and it gets cheap (3bed room apartment for $1000)

Even in Tokyo just shortly out it can get cheap quick. I have friends living in Sangenjaya (2 train stops from Shibuya) and paying $1500 for 3bedroom apartment.

Friends living in Kyoto have huge places for the price but again it depends on where. Popular areas are expensive.

So, I'm pretty sure Japan and Tokyo in particular are cheaper than NYC, LA, SF, Paris, and London. Still, likely your place will be smaller than you're used to.

What makes it expensive for most foreigners is they don't speak the language and they don't know the area so their options are super limited to the expensive options targeting foreigners.

You'll likely want to live downtown, and close to a station, both of which will jack up the cost.

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