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Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

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Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#101

Post by merb »

haberman wrote: post #70
99_00 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Germany's experience a success or failure? What is the counter to this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/09/05...

"What is the counter to this article?" does not deserve downvotes.

well the problem in our grid is mostly coal. it's cheap (in germany since it's subsidized for the next x years) but it generates exactly the problems in the article.

basically mckinsey study is not against green energy, it's more of a "politics do way too less" i.e. mckinsey analyzes the co2 targets for germany and it critizes it for doing way too less and having unrealistic expectations. news article basically love such studies besides that the studies in question want to show that we need to do even more.

tbf between '19 and '20 we atleast reduced lots of lignite/hard coal in favor of wind (onshore) but 2019 (year of the article) it was really really bad for renweable in germany, we actually only talked about green energy, but internally we were really dirty... but we are still behind norway, sweden, denmark and lots of other countries.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#102

Post by scsilver »

albertop wrote: post #87
jes5199 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is why rooftop solar, which has the highest LCOE of any power generation, still ends up making sense for consumers. Because it doesn't have to compete on the open market, it just has to be plausibly cheaper than your utility bill

Rooftop solar still have 5+ years ROI. Recently utilities changed billing plans to make it even less attractive.

But even if you dont stay in the house, the next owner can use it. I expect most houses will be lived in for atleast 30 years if they are getting mortgaged.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#103

Post by etimberg »

dmurray wrote: post #89
hangonhn wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Germans had this really clever scheme where they tied the price they pay for solar power to the price from fossil fueled power. That really incentivized people to create more efficient solar and thus increase their profit margins.

Isn't that very close to how a normal electricity marketplace would work? The consumer mostly doesn't care if they got their electricity from renewables or not, so they pay the same price.

A lot of renewables are connected into the distribution grid and the markets in general run on the transmission grid. Every jurisdiction is different, but in general the transmission system is run by a neutral party who is usually known as an "Independent System Operator". In contrast, the distribution system is run by the local distribution company (LDC) that supplies power to consumers. The LDCs have traditionally not run their own markets but that is starting to change. At my day job I built a distribution level market that is being deployed in California [0]. We've developed a method of pricing the energy from DERs to account for the local benefits they can provide to the grid at a micro level.

Shameless plug, but if anyone is interested in these topics we are hiring for a number of roles [1].

0. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/opus-one-tests-... 1. https://www.opusonesolutions.com/careers/

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#104

Post by 99_00 »

mrDmrTmrJ wrote: post #98
99_00 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Germany's experience a success or failure? What is the counter to this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/09/05...

Great question! Here's what Germany did: They invested a vast amount in local renewables, at above market prices, that had the effect of dramatically driving down the global price of wind and solar. Because they radically expanded production capacity. Effectively, Germany gave the world a 'gift'! This had the long-term affect of dramatically increasing global solar + wind deployments (b/c prices fell) and transferrin…

So basically German "failure", but global success?

And everyone else who tries it will do better because Germans ate the costs?

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#106

Post by outworlder »

albertop wrote: post #90
outworlder wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> California has one of the most, if not the most, expensive electricity in spite of years of investment in renewables Some municipalities have improved a lot on that issue. See Santa Clara, Silicon Valley Power. Prices are most lower than PG&E.

What are their prices?

See links below.

https://www.siliconvalleypower.com/residents/rates-and-fees

https://www.siliconvalleypower.com/svp-and-community/about-s...

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#107

Post by sien »

mrDmrTmrJ wrote: post #98
99_00 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Germany's experience a success or failure? What is the counter to this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/09/05...

Great question! Here's what Germany did: They invested a vast amount in local renewables, at above market prices, that had the effect of dramatically driving down the global price of wind and solar. Because they radically expanded production capacity. Effectively, Germany gave the world a 'gift'! This had the long-term affect of dramatically increasing global solar + wind deployments (b/c prices fell) and transferrin…

Looking at the data on rolled out photovoltaics from here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics

It looks like Europe as a whole is only a fraction of global spending from 2012 onwards. Germany is only a part of that.

How do you discount the counterfactual that Solar power costs were going down anyway as there was global demand anyway for solar panels at reasonable scale?

Also, do you have any reference for anyone at the start of the Energiewende saying that the aim was to reduce the cost of solar power rather than reduce emissions?

It seems that the goals are being shifted to avoid people looking at Germany spending hundreds of billions of dollars and, as you point out, achieving a result that is substantially worse than that of France, that did something similar in the 1970s with different technology.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#108

Post by coredog64 »

jellicle wrote: post #18
HighlandSpring wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is this? Is there no competition?

California deregulated electricity and in the absence of regulations, electricity providers discovered that they could collude in reducing capacity until prices went nice and high, and make continuous windfall profits from then forward.

Part of this was that CA’s “deregulation” outlawed long term pricing in favor of spot pricing. So it created a situation where providers could “discover” that they needed to take a plant down for maintenance at peak, only to “accidentally” raise the price of electricity.

AIUI, long term contracts were seen as opaque, whereas spot pricing wasn’t.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#109

Post by mrDmrTmrJ »

99_00 wrote: post #104
mrDmrTmrJ wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great question! Here's what Germany did: They invested a vast amount in local renewables, at above market prices, that had the effect of dramatically driving down the global price of wind and solar. Because they radically expanded production capacity. Effectively, Germany gave the world a 'gift'! This had the long-term affect of dramatically increasing global solar + wind deployments (b/c prices fell) and transferrin…

So basically German "failure", but global success? And everyone else who tries it will do better because Germans ate the costs?

"everyone else who tries it will do better because Germans ate the costs?"

Yes on both your points. Sadly, German industry didn't get the benefit. Which makes it harder to convince the country to do stuff like this again.

Very different from Tesla, where a bunch of silicon valley people ate the cost (e.g. VCs, roadster, 2012 model-S) and then many benefitted as they own stock.

Re: Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?

#110

Post by hansjorg »

marvin wrote: post #78
magicalhippo wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in Norway it's because we sell our cheap hydro overseas, so that we can buy back more expensive energy when hydro is low. The owners make a ton of cash, and us consumers can only say "thank you". Sure something something more reliable, but don't come here and say the cash they skim isn't a strong motivation in this equation. At least a lot of the hydro is owned by local municipalities and counties, so most of it…

Norway's system of municipal hydropower ownership combined with export of surplus hydropower, effectively converts the (basically mandatory) electricity bill into a tax. Reducing the need for other forms of local government taxation, given that the municipality is well-run and not corrupt. Beneficial side effects are incentivizing power efficiency, since capital-intensive efforts like insulating your house and instal…

Great summary of what's at play here.

> Given these benefits, retaining ownership of the hydropower companies in the hands of the public is super important

It's almost unfathomable to me that anyone can disagree with this, yet I'm pretty sure the status quo won't last for much longer.

I'm tempted to use some very strong words for describing those that are working to this end, but I guess it could all boil down to ideological blindness and short sighted greed.

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