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Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

thecounter.org

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Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current state of making everything share the same warning directly benefits the companies who sell the most dangerous chemicals. This is literally the exact opposite outcome of what the measure is supposed to have.

Not following. Are you're saying this is "Gish Gallop" tactic [1]: flood your opponent with so much BS they can't possibly respond? If so, I see what you are saying: the same level warning for thalidomide vs. something less deadly is a problem. If everything is bad, the bad guys sneak by? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

Process engineers know this as "alarm fatigue":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarm_fatigue

And it's a real thing. It kills people in hospitals because nurses tune out the constant beeps of machines.

Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#152
post #17

I bought a large mixing bowl, and it had a California Cancer label on the bottom. It's a regular metal bowl. If you put cancer labels on everything, people will quickly ignore them. Maybe it would be better if there was a scale on it, like this is a 1 banana equivalent risk or something, but then how do you determine my exposure to the cancer in the metal bowl.

I'll take a stab at the research if you link the bowl? I'm curious now. I appreciate California's proactive stance, and I guess I fall into the minority because I do pay attention to those labels.

Prop 65 cancer labeling did actually reduce the incidence of many of the more potent carcinogens in products when it was first enacted. So in that sense it was very successful.

But because of the wording of the measure (no penalty for falsely labeling something as having carcinogens when it doesn't), and how many things can be considered carcinogens (caffeine is just one example), the effectiveness of the label was diluted dramatically in people's minds.

Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#153
post #85
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually it does care about spreading over time. That's why plant toxins are good in small amounts and bad in large at once. It's always about weighing benefits and negative effects, not looking at things one-sidedly! I would never have vodka, cocktails, and other pure poison products, but I will have a glass of good red wine or a bottle of real beer! Pure ethanol is bad! Ethanol is metabolised as fructose! Sugary al…

We're talking about cancer risk here, not toxicity or effects on blood sugar. As far as I understand (as someone with no medical background), exposure is exposure. I'd love to be proven wrong if someone has some information to the contrary.

> exposure is exposure

Because damage to DNA adds up, and that's what causes cancer, right?

Turns out, DNA is constantly being repaired, because it constantly suffers chemical insults, mostly from reactive oxygen species. A carcinogen is dangerous once it overwhelms these repair mechanisms, and for that, it clearly makes a difference whether you take a single large dose or many small ones.

Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People that drink one glass of wine have very low propensity to over indulge. The latter trait has all sorts of benefits including health and income. It is the adult marshmallow test.

So basically just correlation vs causation.

You can correlate virtually anything that requires foregoing immediate gratification with health and income. People that use condoms consistently have better health and income than those that do not. The list is endless.

It isn’t correlation vs causation, it is misattribution of a hidden variable.

Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#155
post #140
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most comical one of these I know of is Disneyland’s, which I can only assume to be warning about cancerous IP law ;) https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7d/Disneyla...

So... are we suppose to consume... Disneyland? Like... with a knife and fork?

It's about exposure in general, not just food. The Disneyland sign is likely because they use gasoline engines in various places - same reason as parking garages. Might also be from sand in kid play areas or anything involving dust.

Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#156
post #133

Source for all the folks asking specifically about risks: https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/causes-prevention/risk/a... > an estimated 3.5% of cancer deaths in the United States (about 19,500 deaths) were alcohol related > Moderate drinkers have 1.8-fold higher risks of oral cavity (excluding the lips) and pharynx (throat) cancers and 1.4-fold higher risks of larynx (voice box) cancers than non-drinkers, and heavy…

Is this risk proportional to the strength of the alcohol you consume? I imagine a shot of 40% whiskey would be much worse for your throat than a bottle of 5% beer, despite the same total amount of alcohol.

https://monographs.iarc.fr/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/mono96...

> Epidemiological evidence indicates that drinking alcoholic beverages is causally related to cancer of the oesophagus. There is no indication that the effect of alcoholic beverage consumption is dependent on the type of beverage

Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#157
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you need to state them in absolute risk if you want people to be able to understand and make decisions. I refute this on the grounds that an alarming number of people seem not to care about their own health given a 1/1000 risk of death (or worse for older or at-risk populations) from SARS-CoV-2. If half the country doesn't care about those odds, what makes us think any measurable amount of people will care about...…

The goal shouldn't be to get people to do what you want. It should be to give them sufficient information so they can make an informed decision on their own, even if you might disagree with it. I'm not suggesting that personal liberty should trump SARS-Cov-2 precautions, but it's not really relevant to a discussion about whether risk should be framed in absolute terms or not. (Edited for clarity.)

Society does not care about your personal liberties if you are endangering the lives and well-being of others. Case in point, most people won’t mind if you drink until your liver turns to dust, but they do care if you get in a car and endanger the lives of others. Similar to that, not taking precaution in public to avoid contracting and spreading covid is endangering the lives of others as everyone has to go out in public to survive. By not taking precautions someone would be effectively deciding for those around them that covid is nothing to worry about. Any actions a person takes that knowingly increases the risk of death and injury to persons other than themselves are generally criminal offenses.

Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not following. Are you're saying this is "Gish Gallop" tactic [1]: flood your opponent with so much BS they can't possibly respond? If so, I see what you are saying: the same level warning for thalidomide vs. something less deadly is a problem. If everything is bad, the bad guys sneak by? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

Process engineers know this as "alarm fatigue": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarm_fatigue And it's a real thing. It kills people in hospitals because nurses tune out the constant beeps of machines.

Yep, that's what I thought you/they meant. I'm glad you admitted it, because it is clearly a matter of opinion, and it seems the only people bothered by this have similar political affiliations (if their post history is any indicator).

Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#159
post #5

The alcohol industries have done an amazing job with their propaganda. Many people genuinely believe that a glass of wine every day is actually healthy for you.

That strikes me as a bad-faith interpretation of the history of this issue.

The reason for belief in the protective effect of alcohol consumption comes from data, not corporate propaganda. Many observational studies, conducted by a wide variety of institutions and government agencies, and consistently arrived at the conclusion that alcohol's effects on all-cause mortality (ACM) are dose-dependent, but these effects do not necessarily converge on the origin. That is, as dosage is reduced, eventually ACM dips >1 for low levels of consumption, before returning to the abstinence baseline. I.e., mild drinking is protective. There is no plausible or coherent way to suggest that these observations were due to industry influence given the wide variety of data sources, investigators, and institutions involved.

The problem with this data is one that is common to wide variety of health issues; it's very hard to observe small effects. Most of our data and understanding actually comes from relatively extreme effects; the worst smokers and drinkers, large radiation exposure, major occupational health risks like asbestos, etc. That gives us great information about the what effects these onslaughts have, but only for these extreme populations.

The next logical step is to observe less dosage/exposure and try to establish the nature of dose-dependence e.g. linear vs. some power law. The problem, however, is that experimentation is unethical, so you have to continue to rely on observational studies. But observational studies necessarily have confounding factors that can be extremely tricky to address. Furthermore, there is no authoritative way to determine whether these factors have been addressed or not.

So, despite the best and most sincere efforts of investigators, the data 'near the origin', i.e. the effects of low dosage/exposure to a potentially harmful thing, is extrapolation, not interpolation as one might believe intuitively. Even small errors - the kind that are endemic to observational studies - are amplified when considering these ranges.

The result of this is persistent controversy about issues broadly related to hormesis. The true impact of radiation releases from events like Chernobyl and famously uncertain for this same reason.

Specifically regarding alcohol, the most recent attempts to control the confounds has lead some to declare that the protective observation has been eliminated. I certainly agree that, as a health recommendation, this is the conservative interpretation and should be taken used to make health decisions. But as far as the data itself is concerned, I'm not so convinced. I still think the "J" shaped dose-response has not been adequately explained, and there are valid mechanistic hypotheses that warrant continued consideration.

But if you would like to carry on a cynical world view that neatly blames all that ails on evil corporations, by all means.

Re: Less than half of Americans know that alcohol is a carcinogen

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not following. Are you're saying this is "Gish Gallop" tactic [1]: flood your opponent with so much BS they can't possibly respond? If so, I see what you are saying: the same level warning for thalidomide vs. something less deadly is a problem. If everything is bad, the bad guys sneak by? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop

Process engineers know this as "alarm fatigue": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alarm_fatigue And it's a real thing. It kills people in hospitals because nurses tune out the constant beeps of machines.

I can verify. In the ED I work at, we recently "upgraded" our monitors for vitals in every room. The new system has insanely ill-thought-out defaults that cannot be changed - the settings revert with every new patient. A patient moving a little and thus creating artifact in his/her cardiac rhythm frequently triggers a "v-tach" alarm. It sometimes signals the v-tach alarm even if the patient is in normal sinus rhythm with a slightly widened QRS. If a patient removes the pulse ox for just enough time for the machine to alarm, but then puts it back on, the machine will continue WAILING until somebody can shut it off. Unfortunately, if that patient happens to be a COVID-suspected or positive patient, we do not just walk in the room and fix the issue. The respiratory rate measurement takes its measurement from the cardiac rhythm signal. It works sometimes, but I never have found it to be reliable or accurate. However, the machines default to sounding the exact same loud alarm if it thinks somebody is apneic (nevermind an SPO2 of 100% with a good waveform). Since there are so many rooms being monitored at the staff station all at once, the exact same alarm goes off almost every minute for one thing or another. Ok, here is the point of my agreement with parent - the usual alarm tone went off on a patient with an all-too-familiar "V-Tach" message. I hit the button to silence the stupid thing and found a button to "view event". I hit that button (feeling very annoyed again) just for the sake of never having seen that function yet (like I said, the system is new). What do you know... the patient was in a run of v-tach for several seconds. Pretty useful diagnostic information (and if they never converted, pretty damn important to know to keep them alive).
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