Earlier quoted context omitted.
The gist of what I got from the post you're replying to, which I agree wasn't well fleshed out, is this: If everyone gets a $200 smart watch, and 1/10th of those people avoid obesity, we can avoid $20,000 a year in diabetic care and heart surgery and hip replacement for them when they get to be 60. Completely made up numbers of course, but speaking as one smartwatch wearer, the nudges built into the system play a sig…
> $200 smart watch, and 1/10th of those people avoid obesity, we can avoid $20,000 a year Oh, I completely agree that that is a realistic and worthwhile scenario. I just think that lifetime health costs in dollars do not decrease. Let’s say we get 1/10th less diabetes due to subsidised watches. The total number of people with chronic diseases remains constant because we just get a different chronic disease on average…
Some people spend the last ten or twenty years of their life in and out of the hospital, and some just fall over from an aneurysm after otherwise perfect health. Obesity (really type II diabetes, which morbid obesity pretty much guarantees) really pushes people into the first camp.
But sure, a smart watch won't keep cancer from metastasizing, and staying out of the obesity BMI band only decreases lifetime cancer risk, doesn't eliminate it by any means.
What this thread needs is an actuary...