Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#251

Post by arcticbull » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 4:43 PM UTC

anythingdude321 wrote: post #65

arcticbull wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is not a single use case better solved by cryptocurrencies or blockchain than by a classical solution. Name one, I’ll wait. When there is I’ll eat my, err, hat.

there are many problems better solved by bitcoin than classical solutions. one example is as a bank account in a low trust society with high inflation (there are many such countries). creating a bitcoin wallet is extraordinarily easy and once you've acquired the bitcoin it's uncensorable and unconfiscatable. this is better than the classical solution, right?

Confiscation is good when executed through a legal process so I would argue it’s strictly worse. If the government is confiscating your money through unlawful means you’ve got much bigger problems. For instance, an unlawful government can easily confiscate your coins by means of a rubber hose and some pliers. Further a sufficiently motivated unlawful government can just turn off the internet.

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#252

Post by pashamur » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 4:47 PM UTC

optimalsolver wrote: post #154

calebm wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is a hedge on the US dollar, so people probably suspect the economy will go down since Biden won.

Is that why Dow hit 30,000? Because investors are bearish on a Biden economy?

Holding stocks is also a hedge on the USD, not unlike bitcoin.

Perhaps the market is expecting more money printing.

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#253

Post by safog » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 5:53 PM UTC

anythingdude321 wrote: post #190

dustingetz wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Patio11's take: (2019) "Credit bubble? Yes, there can no longer be serious doubt about this: people bought Bitcoin with money that didn’t exist, pushing up the price of Bitcoin. A lot of people currently think they are richer than they are." https://www.kalzumeus.com/2019/10/28/tether-and-bitfinex/ I'd be interested in reading a counter-take, most bitcoiners I know just look away.

Tether has accounting problems and remains a systemic risk. But this is mitigated by several factors. First, they are semi-audited and most educated guesses suggest they are collateralized one-to-one with $ at 70% or more. Second, tethers have become less systemically important over time, as other, better audited (or collateralized) stables have taken market share — this trend will likely continue. Third, tether brr…

Any sources for this? I've been trying to read up to understand how / when Binance decides to print USDT and what they do with it once it's on their exchange.

e.g., https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1333809716301094912

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#254

Post by hnarn » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 6:00 PM UTC

It was a bubble last time, and it’s a bubble this time. BTC or any other crypto currency for that matter is nowhere near passing the grandma test, and until it does it will be nothing but speculative novelty equity for the already baptized and a decent alternative for darknet drug dealers.

Ironically, the ridiculous volatility fueled by baseless speculation from people who have no idea what they’re doing is one of the main reasons why crypto currency is not being adopted, because no merchant with any serious stake takes a currency seriously that can change by tens of percent in any direction between it entering and leaving your account.

Personally I thought crypto currency was an interesting idea when I first heard of it, but now I’m completely fatigued. The eternal September has come and gone and the credibility of the whole endeavour is a guilt-by-association dumpster fire.

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#255

Post by arcticbull » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 8:42 PM UTC

gruez wrote: post #140

arcticbull wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s plenty of ways. Consider TransferWise. They generally charge 0.8% for USD-CAD and 0% for USD-INR. Pretty cheap. InteractiveBrokers allows you to exchange at market rates on the multi trillion dollar forex market for 2/10ths of a basis point ($20 per million). You’re also leaving out two steps in your calculus that really tilt the scales. You’re not paid in Bitcoin and your recipient cannot spent Bitcoin, ther…

>InteractiveBrokers allows you to exchange at market rates on the multi trillion dollar forex market for 2/10ths of a basis point ($20 per million). but that only covers conversion, right? Or does IB also allow you to send to arbitrary accounts? >therefore you need to pay a 1-2% fee at origin [...] and a 1-2% fee at destination. That's only if you use the managed exchange service. If use the trading interface (ie. pl…

Indeed the IBKR approach is longer and there are more steps. You transfer cash to the account in the source country, make the FOREX transaction, transfer the money to your own bank account in the destination and the use a local payment system. It is however the cheapest option I’m aware of in the entire world. $20 per million + 0%.

If you’re sending comparatively smaller quantities then the delta between that and TransferWise is negligible, and it is a one stop shop.

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#256

Post by arcticbull » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 8:51 PM UTC

pashamur wrote: post #250

arcticbull wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asset purchases are not inflation related. If Apple goes up because their business is doing well, that’s not inflation, that’s a good investment. You need to tease apart the performance of the underlying to even get a sense of how the money supply is impacting prices. I’d love to see a study. However simply seeing stonks go up doesn’t mean inflation. If I had to speculate the current market froth has more to do with…

Generally house prices are a ~somewhat decent proxy for asset inflation which is driven by monetary policy; I believe the low rates have definitely driven inflation in housing prices (and the gamma squeeze argument above does not apply to the housing market). Part of the reason we've had an insane housing market valuation growth over the last ~40 years is that cost of capital has gone down from ~15% to 2.5% over that…

Housing prices on an inflation adjusted dollars per square foot basis are the exact same now, on average, as they were in the 1970s across the US. [1]

A few things have changed. One is in choice few major metros, like SF, city councils abjectly refuse to allow new construction taller than existing construction to the benefit of landowners. This artificial supply constraint is pretty much solely responsible for the massive increase in pricing in these metros.

The other thing that’s changed is minimum setback rules, minimum sizing rules, and various other council ordinances - in addition to what Americans consider a suitable home for their living situation. As such new homes are on average twice as big now as they were in the 1970s.

Make no mistake though the average price per square foot for a home in the United States has tracked inflation almost precisely for the last 50 years.

This is purely supply, demand and artificial constraints - not monetary policy. Compare to Tokyo where housing downtown is a few hundred thousand dollars. I suspect if interest rates were lower you’d see smaller houses, not cheaper ones - that’s what happened there!

[1] https://fee.org/articles/new-homes-today-have-twice-the-squa...

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#257

Post by anthony_barker » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 8:57 PM UTC

crumbshot wrote: post #29

Bitcoin and other compute-intensive cryptocurrencies should be banned or taxed so heavily that it's financially infeasible to use them. The amount of energy being wasted (reportedly more than seven nuclear power plants worth) on what is essentially an unproductive project is quite absurd. In a world where we should all be increasingly concerned about the looming climate catastrophe, it's wholly irresponsible for Bitc…

Bitcoin lightning. Please check it out.

A ton of electricity is wasted. Maybe outlaw giant SUVs with 1 person in them?

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#258

Post by anthony_barker » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 8:59 PM UTC

hahaxdxd123 wrote: post #63

anotheraccount9 wrote: post #13

Cryptocurrency is still a misunderstood concept for many ppl in the financial world. As use and integration increases, btc will likely stabilise. Meanwhile, we get interesting volatility.

Like what? What economic value do cryptocurrencies provide over our traditional banking system? - being deflationary is not a feature, it's a bug. An inflationary currency incentivises you to invest it, otherwise you lose real purchasing power. With a deflationary currency, you can just stuff it anywhere and see gains. You steal from tomorrow. As the material wealth of the world increases, our money supply should inc…

I have seen a 1 million tx per second on bitcoin lightning demos.

USD dollar hasn't seen intense inflation recently. Or a kleptocratic government like most of the world.

That said there are large issues using it as a payment mechanism due to volatility in USD.

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#259

Post by atomi » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 9:12 PM UTC

arcticbull wrote: post #248

atomi wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By that definition Bitcoin is a neutral asset class as well since it's deflationary nature is also artificially imposed. > the price of real estate in the US has not changed. That's just ludicrous.

No, it’s well documented. [1] That data is captured by the BLS. > By that definition Bitcoin is a neutral asset class as well since it's deflationary nature is also artificially imposed. Deflationary is not neutral, it’s deflationary. That’s an artificial imposition of directionality. Further that’s only in isolation. Once you consider the economy expanding and contracting around it, externalities, shocks and the add…

I don't follow you.

Normally, real estate markets are tracked in isolation.

Re: Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High of $19,786, Topping 2017 Record

#260

Post by arcticbull » Tue, Dec 01, 2020, 10:11 PM UTC

atomi wrote: post #259

arcticbull wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it’s well documented. [1] That data is captured by the BLS. > By that definition Bitcoin is a neutral asset class as well since it's deflationary nature is also artificially imposed. Deflationary is not neutral, it’s deflationary. That’s an artificial imposition of directionality. Further that’s only in isolation. Once you consider the economy expanding and contracting around it, externalities, shocks and the add…

I don't follow you. Normally, real estate markets are tracked in isolation.

What I was saying is that on average real estate is not deflationary, it tracks inflation, and there’s data to back that. In specific instances of markets where it is deflationary it’s not due to intrinsic qualities of the asset class but rather externalities.