11–20 of 263 posts
Looks like it won't break the $20k threshold again. Back down it goes... I knew this was about to happen again when, just like last time, I heard regular "non-techy" people talk about it at work.
It seems like a lot until you consider that it has been surpassed by many other investments in terms of gains such as Tesla, Paypal, Palantir stock and others. The days of Bitcoin going up 10-50x in a year are over, but still interesting to see what happens next. I think increasing regulation and the use of blacklists and 'coin tainting' erode whatever use bitcoin has though, as there will be no fungibility. This mak…
Given that BTC isnt based on any NPV or earnings multiple or industrial use value but is rather based on scarcity value, I dont see why gaining 10-50x returns are any more or less likely than, say, losing 90% of the value. Could anyone provide a more methodical way of thinking about this?
See: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 .
Relative to the early days of Bitcoin, the room to fluctuate upward is much smaller than the room to fluctuate downward. Bitcoin's market cap is ~$200B, while M1 is ~$6000B. Back in the day, Bitcoin's market cap was a few million dollars or less. That said, BTC now has a powerful brand in the eyes of many possible buyers/holders, which makes a retreat all the way to zero far less likely.
I suspect that the only things that could kill BTC completely these days are a compromise of the hash algorithm, a coordinated effort against it by a consortium of governments that must include the US, or a devastating 51% attack by a consortium of miners. The third is perhaps least-likely, as the miners would stand to lose a lot if BTC imploded.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Given that BTC isnt based on any NPV or earnings multiple or industrial use value but is rather based on scarcity value, I dont see why gaining 10-50x returns are any more or less likely than, say, losing 90% of the value. Could anyone provide a more methodical way of thinking about this?
Not suggesting that this is correct in this case (edit: indeed, one can argue that it is not), but if you think of it as a store of value, whenever the USD money supply is increased (or people think it might be in the future), one might expect the fixed-quantity BTC to be exchangeable for more USD. See: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1 . Relative to the early days of Bitcoin, the room to fluctuate upward is much…
Curious if you could recommend any good read on BTC upside potential given this framework -- for example, right now the M1:BTC ratio is 1:30, but what factors/behaviours would dictate that ratio to change? or is the idea that the ratio keeps constant with more inflation and thus pushes BTC higher?
If it breaks over $20k I expect a new wave of publicity that will drive the price higher, as has happened in the past. Now it is far more accessible as an impulse buy with PayPal, Robinhood, Cash app, etc offering instant purchases.
Looks like it won't break the $20k threshold again. Back down it goes... I knew this was about to happen again when, just like last time, I heard regular "non-techy" people talk about it at work.
I know it's gonna hit 20k at some point since I haven't seen media talking about it yet. Not enough FOMO
While the market is likely driven by fomo and manipulation, cryptocurrencies do have valuable use-cases. See this book[0] for a list of some and an explanation of how Bitcoin works. [0]: https://whycryptocurrencies.com/
Cryptocurrency is still a misunderstood concept for many ppl in the financial world. As use and integration increases, btc will likely stabilise. Meanwhile, we get interesting volatility.