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No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

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Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, presumably that's because of a lack of our ability to determine viral markers that identify spread with high certainty. If we could simply determine who we contracted COVID-19 from, we could easily sue them for damages and then you could take whatever risks you deem acceptable. However, considering that we cannot, there is some threshold level of danger above which society will deem your personal rights forfeit…

What gives you the idea that you are entitled to sue someone from whom you have determined that you have contracted covid-19? And do you think you have this right only regarding this disease, or other similar diseases as well?

Quite simply I'd like to internalize all externalities so that market forces can determine equilibria. So yes, I think if we could effectively determine provenance, I would like very much to enable that for all things - diseases being the obvious ones, but certainly anything else where externalities exist to some trackable degree (carbon emissions are an obvious one).

My rationale for this case is quite simple. I have very effective protocol around this disease, high risk tolerance, and I want to retain the life I had before (going out, restaurants, clubs, etc.). In exchange, I'm willing to allow you to sue me if I get you sick. I think this will create a freer society, and allow people to find their own position on the risk-benefit curve. It doesn't make sense to subject me to the conditions less-risk-tolerant people want. However, it doesn't make sense for me to subject them non-consensually to conditions I want. A good mechanism to balance these things is a near-continuous universal value measure. A good near-continuous universal value measure is money.

FWIW I've rewritten your question from "why do you feel you are entitled to sue..." to "why do you think it is a good idea for society to permit people to sue..." since I think that's more interesting. The answer to "what gives you the idea that you are entitled to sue" is "nothing, since I do not believe I can right now" which is sort of a boring (though correct) response.

Of course the whole thing is moot. Hard to prove who really caused an infection when community transmission is rampant.

Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#192
post #78
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's see... it's a calculus of death vs potential long term adverse effect: P(death) I'd take the vaccine in a heartbeat, long term effects and all, if P(death) was 10% or higher.

If you get covid, there's a P(unknown) of long term harm as well. It's an unknown vs an unknown. Novel virus, novel immunization (first mRNA or maybe first widespread modified adenovirus)

But from what I understand the vaccine does not prevent you from getting the Virus and it's unknown side effects

Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#193
post #96
post #54

Hurray for a vaccine that is > 90% effective on a disease that for those who get it have a > 99% survival rate. Bring on the new overlords.

Those 2 numbers aren’t comparable. A 1% death rate with a disease as contagious as COVID means more than 50 million dead globally at some point (not everyone will get it but the majority will eventually). Near universal vaccination with a vaccine that is 95% effective at preventing severe cases means saving 47.5 million lives in that scenario. Despite the disease having a 99% survival rate. If the vaccine provides st…

One of the lessons I learned from Thinking, Fast and Slow, is that people who present a number as a percent scale can (but might not) have an agenda, as can people who report an absolute magnitude. What I took from this is that if you want to have a rational reaction to the data, you need to have both numbers in mind while deciding how to feel about the situation.

That means 1% aka 70 million dead. Which I interpret as the Uncanny Valley. 70 million is more than enough for vigorous response. But 1% will mean friction from - and for - policy makers.

The problem is, as virologists have told us for decades, Ebola isn't a very effective plague because it's too deadly, too fast. If we don't react to 1% mortality rate, then the end game is we select for viruses that kill 1% of us, and if the mutation rate or family for that virus is large, we get a unique variant every 5-10 years for the rest of time. If the mortality isn't selecting for the same genotype, then that's almost 10% of us overall, death by a dozen cuts.

We have to have protocols in place for reducing R. We have to have the 'pump' primed for putting out fast-track vaccines. We have to have 'red phone' protocols for world leaders to move faster when these situations are developing.

When COVID-25 comes, we'll be either repeating this experience or blaming all of our leaders for learning nothing.

Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think (from my parents and in-laws) that immunosuppression is normally associated with current cancer treatment. There are other reasons a person would be considered immunosuppressed, and plenty of non-chemotherapy drugs that have immunosuppressive effects. But yes, cancer is one of them. It would make no sense to include immunosuppressed people in the initial trials for a vaccine, the purpose of which is to dete…

Yeah, agreed. My selfish concern is then whether or not the vaccine will work for them.

> My selfish concern is then whether or not the vaccine will work for them.

We won't have hard data on that specific question for a very long time, but it's something your/their doctor would be better equipped to make an educated guess about, given the specifics of their situation ("immunosuppressed" can mean a range of things). In some cases, a vaccine might do nothing. In some, it might be actively dangerous. In some, it might have a weaker but still nonzero protective effect. But I wouldn't trust anything you read on HN that tries tell you anything more specific than that.

Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#195
post #48

Does anybody have a good link for a layman's overview of how mRNA vaccines work? Lot's of nervousness from people around this, and would love to be able to help quell some of that.

Ahh, yes, ModeRNA's vaccine is some very clever stuff. The way that one works is a bit complex. Essentially, they still want your immune system to recognize that the virus is bad and then make antibodies against it. Usually, you inject broken up bits of a dead virus into a person. The immune system sees the foreign objects, and makes antibodies against it. Withe ModeRNA's vaccine, we go inside out. You have the body…

I'm wondering if you could clarify a couple things for me:

1) "Skipping steps" This appears to be doing the opposite. In an old vaccine, you'd just dump a bunch of spike proteins into the system. Here, you're adding the step of making the body produce them. Could you clarify?

2) Why not just produce those spikes in a lab? Is it just much less resource intensive to have the bodies make them?

3) As far as stressing that this doesn't alter DNA: Wouldn't it suffice to say "this does what viruses already do, but less"?

Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think (from my parents and in-laws) that immunosuppression is normally associated with current cancer treatment. There are other reasons a person would be considered immunosuppressed, and plenty of non-chemotherapy drugs that have immunosuppressive effects. But yes, cancer is one of them. It would make no sense to include immunosuppressed people in the initial trials for a vaccine, the purpose of which is to dete…

Yeah, agreed. My selfish concern is then whether or not the vaccine will work for them.

Unfortunately, vaccines can't really help immunocompromised people, as their immune system is simply unable to fight off any infection, regardless of whether it recognizes the infection or not (of course, this may be a matter of degrees). That is why, for example, people with advanced AIDS can die from essentially any pathogen.

Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#197
post #48

Does anybody have a good link for a layman's overview of how mRNA vaccines work? Lot's of nervousness from people around this, and would love to be able to help quell some of that.

Ahh, yes, ModeRNA's vaccine is some very clever stuff. The way that one works is a bit complex. Essentially, they still want your immune system to recognize that the virus is bad and then make antibodies against it. Usually, you inject broken up bits of a dead virus into a person. The immune system sees the foreign objects, and makes antibodies against it. Withe ModeRNA's vaccine, we go inside out. You have the body…

What is the process of generating mRNA in vitro at large scale?

Is it as simple as amplifying a DNA template with the spike protein sequence and any necessary promoter sequences then adding some RNA polymerase with free RNA nucleotides?

Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vaccine doesn't "hack or mix our DNA". Heck, it's trying to get the body to get rid of viruses. One particular type of virus (retroviruses) do "hack or mix our DNA".

The astrozenecca vaccine does!

You might get fewer downvotes if you a) spelled AstraZeneca properly and b) included a link to back up your claim.

Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Immune suppressed/deficient patients are not good candidates for vaccines in the first place, since they would be unlikely to mount an effective immune response.

That sounds backwards. Shouldn't those with weakened immune response be first in line for the vaccine? The vaccine would give them a boost. Those with strong immune response have a better chance of fighting off the virus.

Marjomax isn't saying that those with weakened immune responses don't need protection against the virus. They are saying vaccines do not work well in immunosuppressed people, the vaccine will not necessarily provide protection.

Vaccines work by triggering the immune system in the first place. If your immune system is not functioning normally, the vaccine may work differently or not work.

I think it's more complicated than just as a blanket "won't work". But, yeah, more complicated means more complicated -- different vaccines may be infffective, or require a higher dose, or even be harmful to immunosuppressed people. As far as the study, it would probably require a separate study focused on immunocompromised people? The fact that these are new mRNA-style vaccines is possibly relevant, maybe we know even less? Obviously we're in a rush here, there's lots of studies that would be really good to do that haven't been done yet, all that's been done is like a basic "normal people everyone" study. From which immunocompromised people were excluded because they are likely to respond to the vaccine differently, so need a different study design etc.

https://immunisationhandbook.health.gov.au/vaccination-for-s...

(And btw, THIS is what "herd immunity' is about. If enough people are immune (say from a vaccine), then there aren't enough carriers to pass it around the population, so those who AREN'T immune (possibly because they are immunocompromised and the vaccine wouldn't work on them or would be dangerous) still have much reduced chance of getting infected. Because, yeah there are people who can't take vaccines because they would be dangerous or ineffective, but may still be at high risk for complications from the virus)

Re: No one who got Moderna's vaccine in trial developed severe Covid-19

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vaccine doesn't "hack or mix our DNA". Heck, it's trying to get the body to get rid of viruses. One particular type of virus (retroviruses) do "hack or mix our DNA".

The astrozenecca vaccine does!

I'm interested in unpopular opinions here. Do you have a source or details on this?
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