Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#11

Post by Kosirich » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 1:57 PM UTC

Perhaps this should be added to discussion:

https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-...

Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19.

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#12

Post by artvark11 » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 1:58 PM UTC

fullstop wrote: post #9

f0ff wrote: post #4

Tl;dr: "This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19."

If I had heart disease, but would have lived for five more years without being infected by covid-19, what was the primary cause of death?

Covid because the hospital gets a fat fed check everytime they handle a covid death.

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#13

Post by adjkant » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 1:59 PM UTC

mox1 wrote: post #8

So eventually we are going to have an answer to these questions. There is a notion of "excess deaths" ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm ). It will be pretty hard to lie / manipulate these numbers. We (the US, probably other countries) have pretty good statistics for how many people die every year (and what killed them). We can use this historical data to estimate how many people would hav…

I couldn't recommend the CDC link above more. The various dashboards tell the clearest story here.

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#14

Post by SubiculumCode » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 2:00 PM UTC

mox1 wrote: post #8

So eventually we are going to have an answer to these questions. There is a notion of "excess deaths" ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm ). It will be pretty hard to lie / manipulate these numbers. We (the US, probably other countries) have pretty good statistics for how many people die every year (and what killed them). We can use this historical data to estimate how many people would hav…

This is addressed in the article extensively, although with factual error. That said, neither the article or your comment address the fact that 2020 had a large effects on behavior and lifestyle which could effect death numbers.

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#15

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 2:00 PM UTC

fullstop wrote: post #9

f0ff wrote: post #4

Tl;dr: "This suggests, according to Briand, that the COVID-19 death toll is misleading. Briand believes that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may instead be recategorized as being due to COVID-19."

If I had heart disease, but would have lived for five more years without being infected by covid-19, what was the primary cause of death?

[deleted]

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#16

Post by LoSboccacc » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 2:00 PM UTC

mox1 wrote: post #8

So eventually we are going to have an answer to these questions. There is a notion of "excess deaths" ( https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm ). It will be pretty hard to lie / manipulate these numbers. We (the US, probably other countries) have pretty good statistics for how many people die every year (and what killed them). We can use this historical data to estimate how many people would hav…

the 2 and 5 year average are interesting too, because another important matter for a age-skewed disease is how much it impacted life expectancy

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#17

Post by jack_riminton » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 2:01 PM UTC

SubiculumCode wrote: post #2

Reduced commute stress? More family time? Schedule flexibility? Better eating? More sleep?

I went looking for studies to support those suggestions because they make sense, but I ended up finding contrary evidence: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/10/remote-working-from-h...

Although this is pre-COVID so perhaps the stress was because it was the minority of people at a company who were working remotely, therefore feeling left-out, stressed etc

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#18

Post by mikecoles » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 2:01 PM UTC

SubiculumCode wrote: post #2

Reduced commute stress? More family time? Schedule flexibility? Better eating? More sleep?

Nope. Deaths are being attributed to COVID whether that was the actual cause or not. Fell off of a ladder? COVID. Motorcycle cycle accident? COVID.

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#19

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 2:01 PM UTC

Kosirich wrote: post #11

Perhaps this should be added to discussion: https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-... Briand was quoted in the article as saying, “All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers.” This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. Accordi…

[deleted]

Re: Johns Hopkins: Heart Disease Deaths Dropped in 2020 [pdf]

#20

Post by mensetmanusman » Mon, Nov 30, 2020, 2:02 PM UTC

SubiculumCode wrote: post #2

Reduced commute stress? More family time? Schedule flexibility? Better eating? More sleep?

Increased stress due to joblessness, more family time might mean more abuse for some, lack of schedule can have mental health effects, many people are gaining weight from stress-eating food that is always available, some aren’t sleeping as well.