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Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

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Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#61

Post by ironman1478 »

Dork1234 wrote: post #39
ironman1478 wrote: post #31

Imo, the fix for the housing crisis is for governments to invest in the economies of small towns and cities with lots of land that can be built on or property that is vacant. Everybody wants to live in sf, new york, seattle, etc. because they are where the jobs are and that also attracts culture. If state governments could give grants or tax credits for companies to start or expand out to other parts of states that a…

Which basically boils down to internet at this point. Many small towns just have no or slow internet. Water - Drill Well. Sewer - Build Septic Tank Power Problems - Generator / Battery Backup Education - Home School Internet - No Solution??

It's definitely a problem, but it's solvable. It's just a function of political will and funding for local internet... Or just hoping starlink brings internet to everybody. But I also think the government needs to give people/companies straight up money to move there or give them some other incentive. It's not enough just to have schools and remote workers in houses. We need to incentivize artists, entertainers, service workers, chefs, etc. to want to work in these places. Otherwise these locations won't last long term.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#62

Post by thereisnospork »

leoedin wrote: post #9

The idea that tiny homes are the solution to the housing crisis ignores the fact that the housing crisis is really a land-in-desirable-places crisis, and a result of a natural pyramid scheme which has emerged due to population growth and increasing popularity of cities (amplified by low interest rates). Tiny houses don't fix that problem.

> land-in-desirable-places crisis

If that were true construction costs would be the primary driver of housing prices, increasing as more exotic and expensive methods (steel skyscrapers vs mid-rise podium, for instance) are employed to fit more housing on less land.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#63

Post by dirtyid »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #45
cmrdporcupine wrote: post #11

To put it in context, this is a Canadian magazine, and here in Canada the housing market is just absolutely insanely irrational. There has been no downwards housing price "correction" since the early 90s. The 2008 bubble-pop never happened here. Interest rates remain at record lows and the COVID-19 crisis seems to have led to massive _increase_ in housing prices rather than a decrease. It's a huge distorted market wi…

In the United States, a common refrain is that the housing crisis is caused by a failure to build, in particular a failure to build up. That failure to build is usually blamed on regulation. That's a harder argument to make in Toronto. Toronto is a sea of construction cranes, almost all building apartment or condo towers, and it has been like this for at least a decade. Toronto has a third of all construction cranes…

>Toronto has a third of all construction cranes in North America

Toronto can have all the cranes in the world and it won't really matter because construction industry cannot keep up.

I think the city(not GTA) has grown 500k in the past 20 years (2.5M -> 3M), condo units only increased 200k (100k -> 300k), other new housing marginal.

The fundamental problem isn't even that there's too much demand, but the west are incapable of building. If we're going to outsource manufacturing abroad, domestic agriculture to migrant farmers, might as well import some Chinese construction who can build a million unit ghost city in a few years.

E: post too fast

@dghlsakjg

The only saving grace in Toronto condo construction is many of them maybe as shoddy as Chinese construction and hopefully will fall into disrepair and replaced before their life spans.

>Chinese building practices assume a certain disposability

That's Japanese residential construction. Chinese construction meme is lack of quality control which implies durability problems. But it's a meme, housing stock too new to really generalize on. My personal experience (worked adjacent industry in both markets) is some of the Toronto new constructs are experiencing much quality issues sooner than Chinese developments. Chinese build so much that they can build well if incentivized too. In terms of cheap, fast, good... Canadian developers simply don't have a fast mode... nor a cheap mode... and frequently not even good. China can at least get you fast & cheap or fast & good.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#64

Post by dghlsakjg »

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #11

To put it in context, this is a Canadian magazine, and here in Canada the housing market is just absolutely insanely irrational. There has been no downwards housing price "correction" since the early 90s. The 2008 bubble-pop never happened here. Interest rates remain at record lows and the COVID-19 crisis seems to have led to massive _increase_ in housing prices rather than a decrease. It's a huge distorted market wi…

As a recent immigrant to Canada it sort of terrifies me how irrational the market is. That said, I'm buying a house. I moved from Seattle and it is utterly bizarre to me that housing in Vancouver is more expensive than Seattle, while also offering significantly lower pay.

My hot take is that most of the rulemakers (politicians), are property owners, and are unwilling to take the drastic steps needed to put the brakes on.

My solution is to take drastic steps to increase supply. The empty homes tax in Vancouver was a good step for rentals, but I think it should be punishingly high since I suspect that cheating is rampant. I also think that the permitting and building process should be inverted; any project that follows zoning rules should allowed by default, and it shouldn't take months or years to get permitting approved.

If I'm allowed to go hog-wild I also think that anyone that supports historic 'character' neighborhoods should have to live the full historic lifestyle. If you fight density on 'historic' grounds you should also be forced to sell your price for the 'historic' price, use 'historic' appliances, and earn 'historic' pay.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#65

Post by holstvoogd »

roel_v wrote: post #38
holstvoogd wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The 2008 bubble-pop never happened here. I live in the Netherlands and that seems to be roughly what happened here too. ~~I mean, yes the prices have dropped a tiny bit around 2008, but in 2009 they were at an all time high again and have not come down.~~ EDIT: This was a lie, turns out they bottomed out around 2013 at ~25% below the 2008 peak. I live in a 'provincial' city, where prices are ~40-50% of what you mig…

Prices in the Netherlands bottomed out in 2013, at 20 to 30% below the peak of 2008.

You are right! I was sure that that is what I saw last time I looked it up.. That's what I get for relying on my memory ;)

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#66

Post by cmrdporcupine »

dirtyid wrote: post #63
bryanlarsen wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the United States, a common refrain is that the housing crisis is caused by a failure to build, in particular a failure to build up. That failure to build is usually blamed on regulation. That's a harder argument to make in Toronto. Toronto is a sea of construction cranes, almost all building apartment or condo towers, and it has been like this for at least a decade. Toronto has a third of all construction cranes…

>Toronto has a third of all construction cranes in North America Toronto can have all the cranes in the world and it won't really matter because construction industry cannot keep up. I think the city(not GTA) has grown 500k in the past 20 years (2.5M -> 3M), condo units only increased 200k (100k -> 300k), other new housing marginal. The fundamental problem isn't even that there's too much demand, but the west are inc…

Questionable proposition considering the suburban GTA has grown an insane amount as well, even with greenbelting in place.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#67

Post by bane »

mettamage wrote: post #10
greggman3 wrote: post #5

I don't have a clue what any solution looks like or even what problem is trying to be solved. Growing up in the USA home "ownership" is always touted as an investment but for example in Japan, it's often more like buying a car. The moment you buy it it's a used house and the price goes down just like a car would. The point being home ownership is viewed differently. Also, the recent episode of the Flash Forward podca…

Wait, so does that mean it's relatively cheap to rent or buy in Japan? I know Japan is not a cheap country, but I was wondering relative to other Western countries. I might want to research if I'd want to live in Japan for a couple of years then, and simply become a remote worker.

I would highly recommend watching the youtube channel "life where I'm from". He's a Canadian from Vancouver who lives in Japan with his family and makes some of the best documentary style films on topics about Japan anywhere. He has quite a few videos on housing at various levels, and a great series on homelessness in Japan (including cheap housing alternatives).

Sharehouses are also relatively common in Tokyo and tend to attract young single people and expats. They're basically dorms with a central kitchen and bathroom and quality varies tremendously. But you can live for hundreds of dollars per month ($500-700) pretty easily (once you learn about all the weird fees that sorta only exist in the Tokyo housing market) and be about 35 minutes from a downtown hub area.

Seoul also has similar cheap housing options. An entire market exists for ultra tiny "study rooms" (goshiwons) that are not much more than a bed, desk and bathroom and might run around $250/mo. Seoul also has Share houses and very small single room apartments that can be amazingly cheap per month if you don't mind paying a large (refundable) deposit up front -- for example, a $10k deposit might find you a decent sizes 2 bedroom 30 minutes from downtown on the subway for $500-600/mo.

Both cities of course have Airbnbs which can be surprisingly reasonable and long-term stays are available.

1 - https://www.youtube.com/c/LifeWhereImFrom/videos

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#68

Post by dirtyid »

leoedin wrote: post #9

The idea that tiny homes are the solution to the housing crisis ignores the fact that the housing crisis is really a land-in-desirable-places crisis, and a result of a natural pyramid scheme which has emerged due to population growth and increasing popularity of cities (amplified by low interest rates). Tiny houses don't fix that problem.

While I imagine a stacked parking structure of tiny homes is less efficient than dense condos, tiny homes can probably double units available via urban infilling, like laneway homes in not very dense but desirable cities in Canada.

>land-in-desirable-places crisis

Pretty much. Solution is pretty simple (not easy), sideline NIMBYs and start converting every parking lot and park into homes until supply/demand/desirability resets to something reasonable.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#69

Post by cmrdporcupine »

dghlsakjg wrote: post #64
cmrdporcupine wrote: post #11

To put it in context, this is a Canadian magazine, and here in Canada the housing market is just absolutely insanely irrational. There has been no downwards housing price "correction" since the early 90s. The 2008 bubble-pop never happened here. Interest rates remain at record lows and the COVID-19 crisis seems to have led to massive _increase_ in housing prices rather than a decrease. It's a huge distorted market wi…

As a recent immigrant to Canada it sort of terrifies me how irrational the market is. That said, I'm buying a house. I moved from Seattle and it is utterly bizarre to me that housing in Vancouver is more expensive than Seattle, while also offering significantly lower pay. My hot take is that most of the rulemakers (politicians), are property owners, and are unwilling to take the drastic steps needed to put the brakes…

On the supply front, both Toronto and Vancouver have densified _significantly_ over the last 10-20 years, with condo construction in Vancouver completely off the charts. It seems to have done little to alleviate issues.

Immigration combined with net migration into the city is a big part of it, I guess. But I am not convinced this is entirely an issue of supply constraints, as high pricing is no longer confined to the largest metro zones.

Re: Tiny Homes Won’t Fix the Housing Crisis

#70

Post by cmrdporcupine »

smallnamespace wrote: post #56
cmrdporcupine wrote: post #11

To put it in context, this is a Canadian magazine, and here in Canada the housing market is just absolutely insanely irrational. There has been no downwards housing price "correction" since the early 90s. The 2008 bubble-pop never happened here. Interest rates remain at record lows and the COVID-19 crisis seems to have led to massive _increase_ in housing prices rather than a decrease. It's a huge distorted market wi…

> where will my kids live In all likelihood, they will either need your help to buy a house, or be content with renting. If you think real estate prices have ballooned in Canada, wait until you see what rental appreciation was like in tier 1 cities in China — easily 10x - 20x price appreciation over a few decades. Price per square foot in Beijing is 'competitive' with world cities like Toronto, NYC, London, etc., but…

I have no problem helping my kids but the reality is even with my Googler income I will probably have to sell this place and move somewhere cheaper/remoter in order to have the retirement lifestyle I want. And if my kids are living with me, that will in all likelihood reduce their income potential. And if they're not living with me, I'll be having to fund them living in a more expensive area.
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