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Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

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Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#211

Post by logicslave »

xapata wrote: post #209
logicslave wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to work on a team mixed of economics PhDs from Yale/Princeton/Harvard and with Phd Mathematicians. I know what economics is. All the best hedge funds are run by either math people or ruthless business men who cheat/activist invest/have non public information. Also, the FED is in the process of destroying the US dollar and hyper inflating all the assets. Everyone but the capitalists are getting poorer. The "Chi…

> friction ... if youre smart you can find an edge > easy money laying around There's a bit of dissonance between the way you've characterized this process in different comments. That's my point. "Hey, there's a dollar lying on the ground!" "Can't be. Someone would have picked it up." > destroying the US dollar and hyper inflating all the assets Sounds like a good strategy to bring manufacturing back to the US. They'…

"Hey, there's a dollar lying on the ground!"

Found the efficient market hypothesis believer, classic failing of economic theory.

Theres no alpha in the stock market!!!11!! If there was the completely efficient allocation of human capital, access of information, opportunity cost would strip it out so fast!!!

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#212

Post by marketgod »

xapata wrote: post #209
logicslave wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I used to work on a team mixed of economics PhDs from Yale/Princeton/Harvard and with Phd Mathematicians. I know what economics is. All the best hedge funds are run by either math people or ruthless business men who cheat/activist invest/have non public information. Also, the FED is in the process of destroying the US dollar and hyper inflating all the assets. Everyone but the capitalists are getting poorer. The "Chi…

> friction ... if youre smart you can find an edge > easy money laying around There's a bit of dissonance between the way you've characterized this process in different comments. That's my point. "Hey, there's a dollar lying on the ground!" "Can't be. Someone would have picked it up." > destroying the US dollar and hyper inflating all the assets Sounds like a good strategy to bring manufacturing back to the US. They'…

He said it pretty clearly. It's easy money if you look at it and work at it. The issue is most people don't have enough capital to try or don't have the balls to follow through. I've had many try my system and they can't hold the hard times.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#213

Post by xapata »

marketgod wrote: post #212
xapata wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> friction ... if youre smart you can find an edge > easy money laying around There's a bit of dissonance between the way you've characterized this process in different comments. That's my point. "Hey, there's a dollar lying on the ground!" "Can't be. Someone would have picked it up." > destroying the US dollar and hyper inflating all the assets Sounds like a good strategy to bring manufacturing back to the US. They'…

He said it pretty clearly. It's easy money if you look at it and work at it. The issue is most people don't have enough capital to try or don't have the balls to follow through. I've had many try my system and they can't hold the hard times.

Isn't that a contradiction in terms, "It's easy if you work at it."?

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#214

Post by xapata »

logicslave wrote: post #211
xapata wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> friction ... if youre smart you can find an edge > easy money laying around There's a bit of dissonance between the way you've characterized this process in different comments. That's my point. "Hey, there's a dollar lying on the ground!" "Can't be. Someone would have picked it up." > destroying the US dollar and hyper inflating all the assets Sounds like a good strategy to bring manufacturing back to the US. They'…

"Hey, there's a dollar lying on the ground!" Found the efficient market hypothesis believer, classic failing of economic theory. Theres no alpha in the stock market!!!11!! If there was the completely efficient allocation of human capital, access of information, opportunity cost would strip it out so fast!!!

Yep, indeed I am. The same way I think casinos don't mind if you try to count cards at blackjack.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#215

Post by marketgod »

xapata wrote: post #213
marketgod wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He said it pretty clearly. It's easy money if you look at it and work at it. The issue is most people don't have enough capital to try or don't have the balls to follow through. I've had many try my system and they can't hold the hard times.

Isn't that a contradiction in terms, "It's easy if you work at it."?

It's not easy to be Lebron James if you work at it. Also maybe it's just having a hidden talent you didn't know you had or a biological advantage.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#216

Post by Centigonal »

optimalsolver wrote: post #114
ampdepolymerase wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quantopian tried this. Didn't work out. Now they have been acquihired by Robin Hood.

Talk about the blind leading the blind...

Robinhood knows exactly what it's doing. They are democratizing options trading, which allows market makers like Citadel and G1X to collect premiums on a larger universe of assets with high volatility and large spreads.

A portion of the profits these market makers collect are rebated to RH, which, alongside cash sweep and RH Gold, comprise the bulk of their revenue.

RH makes money by keeping trade volumes and user engagement high. They don't care if you make or lose money on their platform, as long as the trades keep happening.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#217

Post by abhinav2019 »

fractionalhare wrote: post #74
ciamac wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That DB/rentech basket option is a tax avoidance scheme. It has nothing to do options pricing and concepts like delta, gamma, etc.

Yeah, yeah. That controversy has been litigated on HN a dozen times already, I'm not going to rehash it. Do you dispute my primary point here? If so, why? (Also, even if I agree it was purely intended for tax avoidance, I don't understand why you think that would obviate having to understand how the options work intimately well).

I don't really think you can categorize that they worked well as these companies are market maker. This is all the way more evident in 9 out 10 times they were profitable. It seems more as that options were 9X strike.
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