Earlier quoted context omitted.
I believe you are trying to think about this rationally, but this is not the only thing going on. When a mac boots up or changes network location, a long list of processes on your machine (like AppleIdAuthAgent, identityservicesd, , and maybe 10 or 20 more) connect to various apple servers associating your actual identity with the ip address. It will continue to do these kinds of things while you are online. And all…
It is not possible to accurately connect an identity with an IP address. Many computers share IP addresses, and many others jump IP addresses frequently.
Anyone trying to identify you just needs to narrow that down from 10,000 to one. This can be done many different ways by combining data sources. You could automate it with algorithms and maybe some machine learning, but it'd also be pretty trivial for a dedicated human to do it.
Browser fingerprint, mac address, software versions, browsing behavior (https doesn't hide URLs), access times, and application hashes will all help narrow down that search.
Maybe your university requires you to install some special software (like one of those locked down browsers for exams), and the attacker knows an approximate range of time when you installed it based on your exam schedule. They could narrow their search by intercepting OCSP requests and filtering for application hashes that match the specific version of the software you most likely downloaded, based on the time you most likely downloaded it.