Live data from Hacker News

Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

kaggle.com

121–130 of 217 posts

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#121
post #88
post #15

Whats the over / under on someone entering the inverse of what WSB does?

Pump in 2020, dump in 2021.

It always makes me laugh when I see people calling a rebound from a crash a “pump”. I usually hear it from people who were too scared to get in low or are short. Be careful of what you allow your cognitive biases to convince you of. It’s the fastest way to lose money.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#122

By a similar argument to https://danluu.com/sounds-easy/ , no one will beat Jane Street in a weekend. Jane Street's hiring standards exceeds FAANG's. This is a hiring/branding strategy. Good luck to them.

> no one will beat Jane Street in a weekend

They have high hiring standard, but I suspect their 100s of smart engineers can't compete with the rest of the world.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mathematical analysis of financial markets is more celebrated when applied to relative valuation of different assets, rather than prediction of the market. Black-scholes, for example, applied calculus with an underlying no-arbitrage assumption to create a thriving market in option pricing, by giving traders a mechanism to reduce risk and thereby reduce bid offer spreads. Same in fixed income, mortgage, and credit mar…

> relative valuation of different assets, rather than prediction of the market But isn't prediction an inherent part of valuation?

This is highly dependent on the model in question. If you look at the parameters of the Black-Merton-Scholes model, there are assumptions embedded in the model that aren't necessarily predictions.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#125

I'm sorry, if you could build a model to predict markets, why will you post in to Kaggle to get $40k in prize instead of applying this model to your own broker account?

This competition doesn’t predict markets. It’s a manufactured game to resemble things JS does. And even if it were an accurate representation, the competition is run on 128 unknown features that you would have to discover for yourself. And trust me, >90% of the work is identifying the features.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#126
post #11

This would be much more interesting if the features weren't anonymized. At this point this is just a widest/deepest neural net competition on some unknown bunch of features.

100% this. Anonymised features remove any hint of lateral thinking that is the essence of science, and just focuses on the pure numbers. This is dangerous. One of my data scientists once ran up a $2000 bill on training a CNN on what was essentially a speed = distance/time calculation, and was really proud when he got 92% accuracy. A real facepalm moment.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#127
post #73

By a similar argument to https://danluu.com/sounds-easy/ , no one will beat Jane Street in a weekend. Jane Street's hiring standards exceeds FAANG's. This is a hiring/branding strategy. Good luck to them.

I actually give it 48 hours before the top 3 equals what Jane Street can do in-house on this exact same dataset. A week before the reasonable plateau is reached, and a month or so before the absolute most information is squeezed out.

Yeah, I meant that Jane Street aren't doing this to find a solution that'll improve their own tech.

I expect in a constrained environment, someone on Kaggle will beat Jane Street's solution.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#128
post #104

I never heard of Jane street. I visited the website and saw a bunch of people crammed into an open office like chickens in a breeding factory. That is not attractive to me. Competitions like this just seem to me like a cheap way to outsource problem solving without having to pay anyone. Like bringing someone in for an interview, letting them solve your problem, and then telling them they are not a good fit while prof…

Knowing what/who Jane Street is massively changes perspective on this. They are definitely not a random shitty company that outsources their core business to some challenge. They are quite known if only for the fact they practically adopted OCaml, which is quite impressive considering their size. I highly recommend checking out some of their talks on youtube like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXdMFxGdako

who cares if they use ocaml or punch cards? i give zero shits about their tech. i care about getting paid properly, having my own office to work quietly and have work/life balance, and generally having no daily drama.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#129

>First place: $40,000 I'm not familiar with this area so I'm probably missing something obvious. If you have a model that outperforms the market, why on Earth would you give it away for 40k rather than use it yourself and make millions?

Jane Street doesn’t tell you where their features come from. Some can be from data sources that cost millions per year. And you would still need to figure out what transformations they did to generate the features in the first place.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Knowing what/who Jane Street is massively changes perspective on this. They are definitely not a random shitty company that outsources their core business to some challenge. They are quite known if only for the fact they practically adopted OCaml, which is quite impressive considering their size. I highly recommend checking out some of their talks on youtube like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXdMFxGdako

Do they actually produce something valuable for society, or is it just the trading profit they are after?

facebook doesn't produce any value for society either
Post reply on HN