Isn't it pretty well known in the finance world that using stale public information to predict the market is a fool's errand? Unless you have some kind of specialized non-public data (e.g satellite images of number of cars parked outside parking malls, number of cargo ships moving in and out), trying to predict the market with historical data does worse than "Just give me some monkeys, darts and a dart board".
Theres actually still money to be made in small scale strategies. Sophisticated funds are running billions. They cant focus on strategies that only work for 100-500k. This is where big returns can be made. Even warren buffet will say, if he was only managing 1 million, he would get 100% a year returns.
Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)
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Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
I believe what you are referring to is the fix. Foreign exchange markets, that I am aware of, do not have closing auctions. I have heard of some quants trading foreign exchange markets, agreeing to trade at the fix with their counter-party, and not realising that traders often manipulate the fix resulting in the quant's strategy appearing not to work. It is almost comical (I worked in finance but not in FX, everyone…
A “foreign exchange” not “foreign exchange market”
Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)
#103I'm sorry, if you could build a model to predict markets, why will you post in to Kaggle to get $40k in prize instead of applying this model to your own broker account?
Mostly because it’s impossible to accurately predict the market - and this is just a competition to see who can build the best model.
Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)
#104Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)
#105Any model superior to what Jane Street is running is worth vastly more than the prizes they’re offering. If you prove such a model out, get licensed (SEC, FINRA) and start soliciting to manage assets. Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Not a lawyer, not your fiduciary.
>Jane Street has spent decades developing their own trading models and machine learning solutions to identify profitable opportunities and quickly decide whether to execute trades. These models help Jane Street trade thousands of financial products each day across 200 trading venues around the world. >Admittedly, this challenge far oversimplifies the depth of the quantitative problems Jane Streeters work on daily, an…
Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
"have no domain expertise in the underlying data. This kind of approach to finance has historically performed poorly" I recently read 'The man who solved the market', about Jim Simons and Renaissance Capital. The way the book tells it, looking for patterns without seeking domain expertise (e.g. ignoring fundamental valuation of equities) is exactly what Renaissance did, and it worked out very well.
I can see why someone would characterize RenTech that way but it's not really fair to do so. There is a lot of mythos about how Simons hired computer scientists, mathematicians, signal processing and NLP experts, etc. When Mercer came over from IBM, he definitely contributed a significant amount of analytical expertise that was probably nonexistent in financial trading at the time (with the possible exception of the…
Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)
#107I'm not familiar with this area so I'm probably missing something obvious.
If you have a model that outperforms the market, why on Earth would you give it away for 40k rather than use it yourself and make millions?
Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)
#108Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)
#109I never heard of Jane street. I visited the website and saw a bunch of people crammed into an open office like chickens in a breeding factory. That is not attractive to me. Competitions like this just seem to me like a cheap way to outsource problem solving without having to pay anyone. Like bringing someone in for an interview, letting them solve your problem, and then telling them they are not a good fit while prof…
They are quite known if only for the fact they practically adopted OCaml, which is quite impressive considering their size. I highly recommend checking out some of their talks on youtube like this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXdMFxGdako