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Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

kaggle.com

31–40 of 217 posts

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#33

Any model superior to what Jane Street is running is worth vastly more than the prizes they’re offering. If you prove such a model out, get licensed (SEC, FINRA) and start soliciting to manage assets. Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Not a lawyer, not your fiduciary.

To me, this seems more like a funnel for recruiting

With an engineer phone screen and three on-site interviews, that's 4 hours of engineer time. $150/hr compensation per engineer, so cost is roughly 2x, $300/hr. So $1.2k to run a candidate through the pipeline post-initial-qualification.

To get one candidate and come out superior, acceptance rate should be 1%. (i.e. 99 failures). But if there are 50 leads from the program, and you convert a fifth, that's 10 candidates for a cost / successful recruit of $10k which means you have 10% acceptance rate to break even.

Hmm, back of the envelope seems to do all right as a strat. Relatively cheap. I recall the last time we were hiring, we projected cost per hire at $35k with the bulk of that actually being the recruiter referral fee.

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#36

Is this a just a hiring competition under a different name? If you can beat their model, obviously you deserve a 100k signing bonus and a very generous compensation package.

You can't beat their model because they don't include all the data they use in the competition dataset. It's a highly sanitized and simplified toy problem used for hiring and marketing. They don't even tell you what the features are so it's impossible to use domain expertise to constrain the fitting problem (this is a critical component to building profitable trading models because of the signal to noise ratio in the data)

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To me, this seems more like a funnel for recruiting

With an engineer phone screen and three on-site interviews, that's 4 hours of engineer time. $150/hr compensation per engineer, so cost is roughly 2x, $300/hr. So $1.2k to run a candidate through the pipeline post-initial-qualification. To get one candidate and come out superior, acceptance rate should be 1%. (i.e. 99 failures). But if there are 50 leads from the program, and you convert a fifth, that's 10 candidates…

I think you are significantly underestimating the cost per hour of jane street employees

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#38
Isn't it pretty well known in the finance world that using stale public information to predict the market is a fool's errand?

Unless you have some kind of specialized non-public data (e.g satellite images of number of cars parked outside parking malls, number of cargo ships moving in and out), trying to predict the market with historical data does worse than "Just give me some monkeys, darts and a dart board".

Re: Jane Street Market Prediction ($100k Kaggle competition)

#40

Isn't it pretty well known in the finance world that using stale public information to predict the market is a fool's errand? Unless you have some kind of specialized non-public data (e.g satellite images of number of cars parked outside parking malls, number of cargo ships moving in and out), trying to predict the market with historical data does worse than "Just give me some monkeys, darts and a dart board".

Granted, a typical Kaggle metagame-that-is-technically-against-the-rules is to use data from outside the dataset, which is one of the reasons winners have to be validated.
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