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You might not need machine learning

nullprogram.com

141–150 of 201 posts

Re: You might not need machine learning

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “ Regarding recommender systems I see many companies trying neural nets and so many other fancy ML stuff for things that - in AB-tests are always outperformed by basic rules.” I work on large scale recommender systems for an ecommerce company and in my career I’ve seen only the exact opposite. Don’t get me wrong, sometimes simpler ML models, like clustering LSA vectors or nearest neighbors, work better than complex…

From big automotive clients to small-ish fashion eCommerce. From publishing to food-delivery (with upselling in the checkout process) - I found the gains in using rules -> simple ML techniques -> complex systems like NN in most cases not to warrant the costs. The quality of recommendations nearly always increased from a revenue as well as perceived quality standpoint. However, it almost never had a positive impact on…

Your comment is in wild and incredulous disagreement with widely published results and my own ~10 years of industry experience doing ML professionally in ecommerce, quant finance, education technology and quant advertising.

In fact, I’ve always found even just plain cost per unit service goes down with the introduction of more complex ML models. Their greater training complexity and compute costs are much more than amortized by improved performance, easier ability to train and deploy new models (it’s much harder and labor intensive to adjust a rat’s nest of custom business rules than a black box ML model, even in terms of transparency).

Just reduction of operating costs alone is usually a reason to favor ML solutions, even if they only achieve parity with rules systems (though usually they outperform them by a lot).

Your comment makes me feel your methodology for assessing business value and comparing with rule systems is deeply flawed and probably biased to go against ML solutions for preconceived reasons.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#142
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I see "symbolic AI" I immediately think of Gary Marcus and immediately feel disdain towards the topic because of his behaviour on Twitter and other places.

I don't know the dude. I "only" know that my field of research is deductive reasoning in interactive applications and that this area falls under "Logic Programming" and LP is an area of AI. I know that AI researchers are usually a bit dismissive about the other area. I don't like statistics either. Reducing the whole of AI research to statistical approaches (and NNs are one of those) is disingenious and dismisses hun…

I don’t think anyone is dismissing symbolic AI. As far as I can see, it’s just not beating current SOTA results of NNs? It’s not really about ideology, it’s about what currently has superior performance. Model interpretability is not always a requirement.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#143
post #100
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

in motorcycles (and rwd cars) everyone knows you steer with the rear anyway.

Somewhat related, it's interesting how non-intuitive steering is to people for motorcycles and bicycles. They do it correctly, but it's hard to reason about. That is, that pushing the left handgrip forward, at speed, turns left and not right. Yet, at very slow speeds, like walking it, it's the opposite.

After a few years of riding motorcycles I once went on my first snowmobile ride. The controls were so close to a bike that I kept countersteering into the side of the trail. Once I figured out what I was doing wrong, I had great fun from then on.

The other interesting thing is how hard it is to convince non-riders that counter-steering is a thing. They will just not believe you. Even people who've grown up riding bicycles and counter-steering unconsciously their entire childhood.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#144

I love the article, but I don't agree with the premise that machine learning equals neural nets. In my understanding machine learning is a very broad term that just as well could be applied to the polynomial model if the constants were optimized algorithmically. I feel like the presented argument is more for transparent vs opaque models rather than machine learning vs something else. Also one could argue that the pol…

The author may have implemented ML when they optimized their polynomial constants:

> If I was developing a racing game using this as the AI, I’d not just pick constants that successfully complete the track, but the ones that do it quickly.

If they wrote code that automatically picked constants that successfully completed the track quickly, (even something as simple as sorting the results by completion time), then that's reinforcement learning.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Video recommendation is the quintessential machine learning killjoy. YouTube and Netflix were a lot more interesting before they achieved algorithmic homogeneity.

They kill exposure to anything fresh, you teach it a couple things you like and then it keeps you swimming in the same pool. Rather than discovering something new, everyone just watches The Office and Parks and Rec., again and again. Now those theme songs make my skin fucking crawl.

> ... and then it keeps you swimming in the same pool.

This is a consequence of the metrics that are being optimized, it's not a fault of the algorithm per se.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#146
In cases like this and many other cases i feel like the purpose of the machine learning algorithm should be to find a simplified polynomial function. I remember reading a paper in which an “AI physicist” was created and it would reduce complex machine learning models into simple equations that would explain the physics of a simulation. It would reduce the complex simulation into human readable and potentially more useful and predictive “laws” of physics.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#147
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may be overrating what they do. I suspect that 90% of the recommendation weight is based on what other people clicked after watching the same video.

I've seen so many really complex real-time recommendation pipelines that could be replaced by a simple weighted click-rate style algorithm. The application of ML and data science in this industry is quite hilariously bad, really.

Somehow so much leads to correlation. :-)

Re: You might not need machine learning

#148

I love the article, but I don't agree with the premise that machine learning equals neural nets. In my understanding machine learning is a very broad term that just as well could be applied to the polynomial model if the constants were optimized algorithmically. I feel like the presented argument is more for transparent vs opaque models rather than machine learning vs something else. Also one could argue that the pol…

I came here to state the same.

I am not sure when we changed the terms, but back in the day, this would happily fall into machine learning. As he mentioned, if you want a good driver you would execute thousands of experiments to pick a good set of parameters

Re: You might not need machine learning

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They kill exposure to anything fresh, you teach it a couple things you like and then it keeps you swimming in the same pool. Rather than discovering something new, everyone just watches The Office and Parks and Rec., again and again. Now those theme songs make my skin fucking crawl.

> ... and then it keeps you swimming in the same pool. This is a consequence of the metrics that are being optimized, it's not a fault of the algorithm per se.

My (wild) guess is that it would be very hard to come up with a universal algorithm that doesn't exhibit this characteristic, due to some sort of effect that's comparable to the class imbalance problem, but with added feedback effects.

Re: You might not need machine learning

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “ Regarding recommender systems I see many companies trying neural nets and so many other fancy ML stuff for things that - in AB-tests are always outperformed by basic rules.” I work on large scale recommender systems for an ecommerce company and in my career I’ve seen only the exact opposite. Don’t get me wrong, sometimes simpler ML models, like clustering LSA vectors or nearest neighbors, work better than complex…

From big automotive clients to small-ish fashion eCommerce. From publishing to food-delivery (with upselling in the checkout process) - I found the gains in using rules -> simple ML techniques -> complex systems like NN in most cases not to warrant the costs. The quality of recommendations nearly always increased from a revenue as well as perceived quality standpoint. However, it almost never had a positive impact on…

Neural Nets really are better, just because either you, your clients, or the problem you are solving is simple, doesnt mean NNs dont work. They work absurdly well.
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