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Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

aeon.co

181–190 of 205 posts

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#181

Depends on what that means, but fossils have only been in widespread use for a couple of centuries, yet a lot of important discoveries were made before them. The energies from wind, water, animals and burning plants were widely in use before coal took off in Europe about 3 centuries ago. Without (only a century of) oil, even without coal, the discovery of EM fields still would have led to (slower) development of hydr…

> the sun pours FAR more power onto the surface than needed to get 'modern'.

One of the agruments economists make for not switching away from fossil fuels is that we'd be consigning worlds poor to endless poverty. Invariable followed by the accusation that you don't care about poor people. But if you look at the supply of oil and gas it's obvious there never was would be enough to lift the worlds poor out of poverty. If you want a hard example of that during it's modernization push China burned through most of it's coal reserves. Not sustainable.

There is though enough solar and wind.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Knowledge steadily accumulates over time. No, it doesn't. Only knowledge that people consider to have value will be retained over time. Many things are lost to history, for example.. nobody knows how to make cobblestone. (Or so I'm told)

>nobody knows how to make cobblestone. Can you expand on that? I didn't think cobblestones were made? Don't you just pick suitable stones?

There are masonry techniques that are considered lost arts is probably what he's referring to, including types of load bearing cobblestone construction.

An example that comes to mind is a brick townhouse nearby that was struck by a car and part of a structural brick rounded wall collapsed. It remained that way for many years because the owner simply couldn't find a mason that knew how to rebuild it.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#183
post #29

Ringworld goes into this topic quite a bit, so it was interesting to me to see that the author is an astrobiologist who wrote "The Knowledge", about restarting civilization from scratch. Niven (who wrote Ringworld) also co-wrote "Lucifer's Hammer" with Jerry Pournelle, which was like a fun book version of a big-cast disaster movie, about a comet colliding with the earth in the mid-1970s. Lucifer's Hammer had some fai…

One interesting thing to contemplate along these lines is that the U235 to U238 ratio of naturally occurring uranium changes through time on Earth. They had about the same abundance when the Solar System was created but they have different half lives. U235 is about 0.70 billion years and U238 at about 4.47 billion years. Currently U235 is only 0.7% of natural uranium, but one can make a nuclear reactor with natural w…

> There is even geologic formations where natural nuclear reactors existed in the past

TIL. Fascinating, thanks.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#184

It's easy for me to end up existentially depressed if I go too far down this line of thinking. But, frankly, we are fucked here on Earth. We're consuming resources at an exponential rate with a population way, way outside what the planet can support sustainably. And we won't fix it before it's too late, because our base human nature wants more, bigger, better at the expense of all else. I'm with Musk on this, the onl…

Where will you go?

Even if Earth is exhausted of all its resources, the two things that Earth will continue to have, is (1) gravity at 9.8 m/s^2, and (2) a magnetic field.

It’s possible the magnetic field can be eliminated, if the planet’s core turns solid, in which case, we all need to go underground. But the planet will continue to get sunlight, and it will continue to have gravity.

These 2 key things, are found nowhere else in this universe. Except for Venus, which has a similar gravity, but it’s so hot, the surface can melt lead.

And we still don’t yet have a high probability of the closest extra-solar planet, that can sustain life with earth-like gravity and a magnetic field.

Even an asteroid that eliminated the dinosaurs was still not able to eliminate life on Earth. Why? Because of this water world, its gravity, and its magnetic field.

So the best solution to having a backup for humanity, is to probably (1) dig a hole deep in the ground, and establish a deep mine colony there. Or (2) build a deep ocean habitat, and establish a deep marine colony there.

That way, if an asteroid hits land, then the deep ocean colony can survive. Or if the asteroid hits the ocean, then the deep mine colony can survive.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One interesting thing to contemplate along these lines is that the U235 to U238 ratio of naturally occurring uranium changes through time on Earth. They had about the same abundance when the Solar System was created but they have different half lives. U235 is about 0.70 billion years and U238 at about 4.47 billion years. Currently U235 is only 0.7% of natural uranium, but one can make a nuclear reactor with natural w…

> It is so much less safe and dirty. When people say "nuclear reactors are safe," they mean advanced modern designs with computers everywhere and precise engineering, not a Bronze-age clay kiln filled to the brim with enriched material.

You would be amazed how dangerous smoke is for human health. Even today burning coal is estimated to kill a few million people per year.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#186

One might argue that the boon of fossil fuels was actually the cause of a lot of chaos and war since the technological change it enabled was so rapid and norms around war took a long time to catch up. Millions of young people from all over Europe went into the First World War with their heads full of ideas about bravery and daring and adventure only to get thrown into a vast industrial meat grinder. The Second World…

I agree with this, which is why the idea of fusion energy is both exciting and terrifying (and why governments may even be hesitant to disclose breakthroughs). In the theoretical ideal, fusion energy would provide such a surplus of energy that it could rewrite borders and trade deals overnight.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#187
post #29

Ringworld goes into this topic quite a bit, so it was interesting to me to see that the author is an astrobiologist who wrote "The Knowledge", about restarting civilization from scratch. Niven (who wrote Ringworld) also co-wrote "Lucifer's Hammer" with Jerry Pournelle, which was like a fun book version of a big-cast disaster movie, about a comet colliding with the earth in the mid-1970s. Lucifer's Hammer had some fai…

Mandatory read, the Silurian Hypothesis:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silurian_hypothesis

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#188
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conversely, were we born on a world a bit larger than Earth, we wouldn't be able to reach orbit the way we did, due to limits of chemical rocket propulsion.

I thought this, too, but someone did the math and were not as close to the boundary as you think. It's something like the Earth would have to be 10x bigger to prevent chemical rocketry from working.

From working at all, sure, but how big would those rockets have to be?

Rocketry doesn’t exist just because some idealists wanted to go to space. It exists because governments wanted to invent new ways to bomb their enemies. A V-2 allows you to bomb England from continental Europe (and wasn’t even a cost-effective solution for that); nobody was going to build a Saturn V-sized rocket for that use case, and even if they wanted to, it’s not clear that they could get it to work without lots of testing with smaller prototypes.[1] Compounding this issue is that, on this hypothetically larger planet, whatever enemies you’d want to bomb in the first place could also be much farther away! Whereas on Earth it’s not hard to reach any other point on the planet; a little over a decade from the V-2 we had ICBM’s.

[1] By way of analogy, Lofstrom loops are theoretically much more efficient than rockets, but to find out for sure we’d have to build a full scale example, and that would be extremely expensive even if we didn’t run into any unforeseen cost overruns or delays—which we inevitably would because this would be the first time we built anything like this. It would be like ITER except at least ITER has a practical application if it works.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Knowledge steadily accumulates over time. No, it doesn't. Only knowledge that people consider to have value will be retained over time. Many things are lost to history, for example.. nobody knows how to make cobblestone. (Or so I'm told)

I've never heard that about cobblestone, but Roman concrete and "Damascus" steel are other examples. Granted, we've recently (mostly) rediscovered how to make those, but it shows knowledge accumulation isn't monotonic.

There’s an important distinction here between losing the knowledge of how X people made Y, and losing the knowledge of how to do Y. For instance, the secret of Greek fire was lost to history, but I’m pretty sure napalm does the job just fine these days.

As for Roman concrete, the Romans were blessed with some really nice volcanic ash, but we can build things out of concrete that the Romans never could thanks to rebar alone.

Re: Could we reboot a modern civilization without fossil fuels? (2016)

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm with Musk on this, the only way we survive is to get the hell off Earth. The problem with this line of thinking is is that when people say "we" they don't really mean it in "the human kind" sense. Because that's either logistically impossible, or if it's not, you get to leave with the same people that want "bigger, better" and they'll ruin it for everyone else. So educating these people should come first no mat…

> The problem with this line of thinking is is that when people say "we" they don't really mean it in "the human kind" sense. I think they mean it in the 'species' sense: that there's another planet that serves as a redundant node in the network of the human species. If one node fails, another is on hand to keep the network going and rebuild the failing node. > So educating these people should come first People who t…

> often convey a deep sense of hubris

I meant what I said as a reply to parent's assertion about resource consumption and unsustainability, so I don't know, maybe it is hubris.

But I feel like it's safe to assume that the vast majority of people don't really think about how their behaviours in respect to consumption impacts the world as a whole. I'm probably not educated enough in this respect either, but I am pretty sure that following a philosophy where owning less things is better than owning more things is preferable.

Yes, I know that in the big picture of the environmental issues the planet has it is not individual contributions that have the largest impact. However the companies that do, are the ones that hold the same "uneducated" people in decision making positions.

So, that's why I concluded that better environmental education as a whole would mean less need for humans to flee to other planets. If I'm wrong and that's not the case, then it means the Wachowkis were right, humanity really is a virus.

Coming to your other point:

> I think they mean it in the 'species' sense:

If parent meant it like you're suggesting, it's not by saving the whole species as it is now (ie, 7+ billions of people) but as descendants of the lucky few that get to leave Earth. That in my opinion is definitely not the same as saving the species.

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