Live data from Hacker News

WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

wtfhappenedin1971.com

261–270 of 477 posts

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#261
Why should productivity be tied to compensation? If I hire myself out to dig foundations for a living, I will be more productive if I'm provided with a backhoe versus provided with a shovel. But isn't it the business investing in productivity enhancing measures that is responsible for my increased productivity, not anything intrinsic in myself?

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something that surprises me is that nobody ever talks about efficiency, as a trait of a particular piece of regulation. The goal of a regulation, like a project constraint, is to enforce some outcome. This is often a good thing. However, not all implementations of the "code" of that regulation are going to be equal. There's a huge gap between the desired outcome and the way it's articulated as law; there's a ton of w…

As weird as it sounds, inefficiency can be a feature of regulation, especially for big companies because it creates a slow and expensive hurdle for smaller competitors. Sometimes, even as a consumer, this is desired, for ex when new drugs are coming to market. Sometimes, as you point out, it’s stifling. Government is also inefficient by design. Imagine the gov’t pivoting to different laws every week - it would be com…

> Sometimes, even as a consumer, this is desired

I don't understand this argument. The goal is not to be intrinsically "slow", but to be suitably "careful". If you can be as careful as needed, but execute that careful process in such a way that no time is wasted, that's a win. The two are separate questions.

To put it differently: high-security systems programmers don't move their fingers more slowly on the keyboards because "going slow is better". They put checks in place, and they take as much time as is needed to do things right, but padding that time just for the sake of "slowness" helps nobody.

> Government is also inefficient by design. Imagine the gov’t pivoting to different laws every week - it would be completely unsustainable and would drive people crazy.

Speed of change has nothing to do with efficiency of implementation. I'm talking about writing laws that are efficient for companies to deal with, not streamlining the law-passing process so that legislators themselves are unburdened. It's a totally separate thing.

> inefficiency can be a feature...for big companies because it creates a slow and expensive hurdle for smaller competitors

This is true, and could be part of the reason this problem hasn't been addressed. But corporate lobbyists are just one of the many forces influencing legislation, and formalizing ideas around "efficient regulation" would only shed even more light on bad-faith attempts at making laws less efficient for the purpose of moat-building.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#263
post #186

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

> oil crisis If the basic stuff that runs the world (energy and chemical feed stock) doubles in price two separate times in the space of 7 years, you just might expect tough times. Interest rates lower than inflation, gold and silver not keeping pace with inflation either, general economic stagnation. Not a good time, no it wasn't.

> you might expect tough times

Unless your currency is the one the oil is required to be priced/sold in worldwide, maybe. Sounds like a great time to have USD to me.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#264
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we narrowly averted disaster. Did you know that amendment required a supermajority to raise taxes?

At this point I kind of wish a supermajority was required for every vote. Then neither party could control legislating over the objections of the other. This trading back and forth every so often thing doesn’t seem to be working great.

I'm surprised that you think that too much legislating is the problem. No legislation can even happen without bipartisan support unless one party has control of the House of Representatives, the Senate, AND the Presidency. Oh, and unless there's a supermajority in the Senate, the minority party can filibuster most legislation anyway.

Sounds like a great way to ensure that compromise has to happen, except that the party in power ends up getting credit for anything that gets done (or doesn't get done), plus to the other side they're dangerous fanatics who can't be trusted.

If you're in the minority, why not just ensure that the ruling party (if it can even be called that) fails to accomplish anything? Your side will love blocking their agenda, and if enough people aren't paying attention maybe they'll blame the other side for "not getting anything done".

As long as your party can hold out hope for not losing too badly in the next election, the status quo works just fine.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does bitcoin solve this? Last time I checked there's no fixed bitcoin price either. The currency is so volatile on news, it's sagging and spiking all over the place.

You are correct that there is no fixed price. However, you might be assuming that the US Dollar has a fixed price too. The US Dollar is fixed at the price of the US Dollar, which is of course only a relative value. Likewise, a Bitcoin is worth what a Bitcoin is worth. The difference between the two, what the OP is pointing out above you, is that Bitcoin currency has a limited supply and so can't be devalued. Relative…

> Relative to each other, a Bitcoin will increase its value to the USD because the supply of the latter is always increasing.

Until Bitcoin crashes entirely, of course.

OK, new topic: Draw a graph of each currency's Big Mac Index, or how much of each you need to buy a Big Mac in some major American city over the same timeframe. (We could do the same thing with Wonder Bread or a dozen jumbo eggs, but the Big Mac Index is actually A Thing.)

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#266

The biggest reason for the wage drop is the trade with China. The US and China started trading in 1971: https://apjjf.org/2013/11/24/Dong-Wang/3958/article.html As with any economic question, it's usually not due to one reason. The combination of energy price and workforce age comes into play. But the biggest trigger of all was the trade with China. That put a serious pressure to job competition, and led to significa…

Across the US political spectrum free trade has been embraced by economists and politicians alike, all with the idea that capitalism will force liberalism in places like China. And yet, here we are 50 years later and the CCP is as strong as ever. Instead of a growing middle class resulting in better working conditions, it resulted in an insulated and complacent privileged class who either can't or won't demand better working conditions for the less privileged, for fear that they or their families will become state enemies. China's currency manipulation and curbing of worker's rights ensures industrial equivalents in the US are incapable of competing.

So many economists have rationalized the benefits of free trade as being that the country who can make things most efficiently and with the best quality will succeed, but they ignore what goes into "efficiency". But worker safety protections (especially from litigation risk), higher wages, and better time off are all significant sources of inefficiency, from a production standpoint.

The market devotee acknowledges that the market solution to worker protections is unionization and job-shopping, but it's nearly guaranteed to put enough pressure on corporations to offshore as soon as possible. Unions help wages for those jobs which stay, but guarantee there aren't that many left. Free trade with places like China and Mexico is stacking the deck against American labor.

Conservatives have long used unions as a scapegoat for this problem, but it doesn't explain why it's more often the case that a corporation offshores operations instead of moving operations to a state without government mandated unions. There is some truth to their argument, but I don't think they understand that basic safety protections, natural market forces, and potential litigation all contribute to a significantly more costly American worker than one abroad, even if they aren't in a union.

I think that one of the central reasons this has been happening is that the American ruling class has been insulated in their ivory towers and Ivy League schools for too long. They're genuinely more concerned with "saving the world" than creating a cohesive, prosperous society. It explains why so many lives and money is used to intervene in countries on the other side of the planet, why immigration from 3rd world countries is heavily promoted despite fierce resistance from the lower class, and why they have all but abandoned the idea of low-skilled labor becoming more valuable.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#267
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Random thought: since the US dollar hasn't been backed by a physical asset in decades, does it really make sense to prosecute a person(s) for "stealing money." Stealing implies you have taken something of value and requisitioned it for ones self, but since money has no actual value was it really stolen? Especially in the digital age, the numbers you see in your bank account are just 0s and 1s sitting dormant in some…

> since money has no actual value Ah, the intrinsic value debate (which your entire argument hinges on) never gets old. Setting that debate aside, money has market value -- it's not backed by gold, but it's backed by the power of the government, by the trust of the citizens, and by very strong social expectations. A storekeeper is more likely to accept your money than your gold.

This holds true not just of a storekeeper in the US, but in many other countries as well.

The US invested a great deal of both soft & hard power ensuring this is the state of the world.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#268

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

yea it's a real coincidence that it coincides with the death of representative money

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#269
post #246

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

> The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard How is that obvious? I see a lot of data, but not many conclusions. And even the data presented doesn't seem to me to present a particularly compelling case that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, among the many, many historically pivotal things that happened in or around 1971, that caused the systemic changes that…

Because it's an article of faith for hard money enthusiasts[1] that nearly all society's economic ills can be blamed on the abandonment of the last vestiges of the gold standard, which happened in 1971, and yet anyone who pays any attention to the posted charts will notice that 1971 isn't actually the inflection point or even a partiocularly notable date on many of them. As you point out, there are many other historically pivotal things in the mid-late twentieth century that caused systemic changes, and many of those timelines better fit the data.

[1]A cursory look at the site's blog posts will confirm the site author is indeed one https://wtf1971.com/page/2/

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is very unlikely? I do not understood what you meant.

Moving to a different geography for a substantially higher compensation. The same phenomenon depresses compensation everywhere, so chances are most people won't be able to find compensation that's enough to keep the family going.

> As this would depress salaries everywhere, that's very unlikely.

This part of your comment was super confusing. So much so it seems better in reverse:

>As that's very unlikely, this would depress salaries everywhere.

Post reply on HN