Live data from Hacker News

WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

wtfhappenedin1971.com

141–150 of 477 posts

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#141
Uncle Milty (Milton Friedman) published, on Sept 12, 1970, The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase Its Profits. https://www.nytimes.com/1970/09/13/archives/a-friedman-doctr...

This doctrine of irresponsibility was gobbled up by businesses. It gave them (us) permission to switch from the post-WW2 cooperative way of doing business to an extractive model: get the most you can from workers, suppliers, host communities and other stakeholders without shares. Externalize all the costs you can get away with fobbing off on others.

The Hayek / Friedman / Chicago School fanbois need to address the biggest externalized cost of all: disposal of CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases. If the social responsibility of business were to increase its profits a century from now, maybe the Friedman Doctrine would be helpful. But, yeah, no. As it is, the Friedman Doctrine means "take all the money and run."

Lots of plutocrats argue for a guaranteed basic income. Why? if Amazon / FB / Doordash / Uber impoverish everybody, nobody will have any money to spend on Amazon / FB / Doordash / Uber.

That's all a consequence of the Friedman Doctrine.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People always underestimate the cost of regulations. Even when good, the cost is big. Health care is a good example. Keeping patient data private is a good thing. However it’s also absolutely crushing in its impact in the industry. Tiny projects can take months or years. HIPPA terrifies so many IT people. Driving away top developers.

I'm OK with the "Move Fast & Break Shit" crowd staying far from my medical history thankyouverymuch.

I am willing to bet you have not worked in healthcare IT

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#143
You can clearly see when income stagnated, the debt load by the public skyrocketed. It's almost as if the bulk of the ability to pay for things without a loan went to the 1%, and the ability of the 1% to gain even MORE money when a loan happens... goes to the 1%. I think we're stuck in a feedback loop that doesn't have a chance to break out unless we make laws against whatever is causing it.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#144

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

Didn't the OPEC oil crisis drive the price of oil higher? But then you say that the problem is that oil prices saw a massive decline. So which is it? When I look at the graph of oil prices between 1970 and 2020, I see it jumping around between $20 and $160, but they are always higher than they were in 1970. What exactly are you saying is the problem with oil prices? Are they too high or too low?

> The period of growth was a period of massive decline in the price of energy.

This is referring to the decades before 1970, not after the oil crisis.

> We've since had 50 years of stagnation in energy prices.

This is the period of 1970-2020. The price of oil has oscillated (jumping around, as you say) during this period, but the overall price of energy has not had a clear long-term trend.

The earlier poster's argument is that the stagnation in other metrics (from a period of impressive growth before 1970) may reflect this stagnation in energy prices (from a period of impressive reduction before 1970).

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#145
August 15th 1971, President Richard Nixon announces that the United States will no longer convert dollars to gold at a fixed value, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system. He also imposes a 90-day freeze on wages, prices and rents.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#146

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

> "... more credence with mainstream economists"

Do you follow main stream economists today? Ray Dalio (Bridgewater), Jeffrey Gundlach (Double Line), Raoul Pal (Real Vision), and Warren Buffet (Berkshire) have made very big bets for Gold and Gold stocks because our currency is being debased at a rate we have never seen.

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#147

I don't see how 1971 is significant for any of these graphs. Looks like 1979 is when productivity / compensation really start to diverge. What happened in 1979?

Volckernomics, deregulation and then Union workers voting for Reagan cast it in stone.

https://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft5d5n...

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#148
post #60

The author obviously wants you to believe that it was the abandonment of the gold standard, but there are several other theories that have more credence with mainstream economists. The early 70's was the start of a horrible period of stagflation: stagnation coupled with inflation. Some do blame the loss of the gold standard, but the leading theory is the OPEC oil crisis. Others blame market regulations, the EPA was p…

The thing is, there was a lot going on in the 1968-1971 period. Everything from civil rights to the moon landings. The collapse of Bretton Woods is important, but we have to ask why and what pressures led to that point.

I find Yanis Varoufakis' account of the history leading up to the collapse of Bretton Woods very telling:

As the combined costs of the Vietnam War and the Great Society began to mount, the government was forced to generate mountains of US government debt. By the end of the 1960s, many governments began to worry that their own position, which was interlocked with the dollar in the context of the Bretton Woods system, was being undermined. By early 1971, liabilities in dollars exceeded $70 billion when the US government possessed only $12 billion of gold with which to back them up.

The increasing quantity of dollars was flooding world markets, giving rise to inflationary pressures in places like France and Britain. European governments were forced to increase the quantity of their own currencies in order to keep their exchange rate with the dollar constant, as stipulated by the Bretton Woods system. This is the basis for the European charge against the United States that, by pursuing the Vietnam War, it was exporting inflation to the rest of the world.

Beyond mere inflationary concerns, the Europeans and the Japanese feared that the build-up of dollars, against the backdrop of a constant US gold stock, might spark off a run on the dollar which might then force the United States to drop its standing commitment to swapping an ounce of gold for $35, in which case their stored dollars would devalue, eating into their national ‘savings’.

The flaw in the Global Plan was intimately connected to what Valery Giscard d’Estaing, President de Gaulle’s finance minister at the time, called the dollar’s exorbitant privilege: The United States’ unique privilege to print money at will without any global institutionalised constraints. De Gaulle and other European allies (plus various governments of oil producing countries whose oil exports were denominated in dollars) accused the Unites States of building its imperial reach on borrowed money that undermined their countries’ prospects. What they failed to add was that the whole point of the Global Plan was to revolve around a surplus generating United States. When America turned into a deficit nation, the Global Plan could not avoid going into a vicious tail spin.

On 29th November 1967, the British government devalued the pound sterling by 14%, well outside the Bretton Woods 1% limit, triggering a crisis and forcing the United States government to use up to 20% of its entire gold reserves to defend the $35 per ounce of gold peg. On 16th March 1968, representatives of the G7’s Central Banks met to hammer out a compromise. They came to a curious agreement which, on the one hand, retained the official peg of $35 an ounce while, on the other hand, left room for speculators to trade gold at market prices.

https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2011/02/10/surplus-recycling-...

Re: WTF Happened in 1971? (2019)

#149
1970s was the beginning of austerity movement in the US.

Federal government was paying for white people's housing, education, etc. but after the civil rights act a white supremacist nation decided it was better to throw it all away rather than share a bit of success with non-white people.

Post reply on HN