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Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

#131

Post by ncraig »

trhway wrote: post #100
jakear wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many orders of magnitude fewer deaths, for one?

Orders fewer? Lets look at the Spanish flu in US - the US wasn't ravaged by WWI/revolutions/rebelions, didn't have systemic hunger, etc. and had time to and implemented some of those measures like quarantines/lockdowns/masks, so very reasonable to compare to today. Spanish flu killed 700K in US . Covid already 250K in US - even if we imagine that we're at the peak today, it still means end number like 500K.

Food for thought:

- The average age of death during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic was 28 [1].

- 70% of U.S. COVID-19 deaths are age 70 and above [2].

These are very different pandemics, and it's not clear what comparisons between the two actually tell us.

[1]: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoratio...

[2]: https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22035

Re: Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

#132

Post by Kinrany »

somurzakov wrote: post #12

wait until permafrost thawes and releases gigatonnes of methane into the air that woukd turn our planet into a large greenhouse. from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions : The Permian–Triassic extinction event (the Great Dying) may have been caused by release of methane from clathrates. An estimated 52% of marine genus became extinct, representing 96% of all marine species.

Could we just replace the ice with concrete (before it thaws)?

Re: Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

#133

Post by trhway »

nthj wrote: post #125
trhway wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i'm not arguing against [proper] masks lowering the transmission chance in any given case. I just don't see it having any aggregate effect. Basically i don't see the local effect translating into global. The herd immunity is 2/3. If say 1/3 of population has already some pre-existing immunity (from casual reading of Internet it looks that some noticeable share of population does have it for Covid and it seems larger…

This argument fails to include at least 3 factors: 1) A slower infection rate prevents or at least helps with “flattening the curve,” that is, avoiding overwhelming health care systems, which impacts both COVID and non-COVID patients 2) A lower initial viral dose seems to lead to better outcomes (lowers mortality rate) 3) We are seemingly within reach of effective vaccines

1) instead we've had empty hospitals and a lot of non-COVID patients didn't get various treatments which they would have gotten overwise. Plus economic hit to the hospitals, and that most probably will have impact on the future patients. Hardly a win, if any.

2) Would be a win if it is so. I haven't yet formed even a barely informed opinion. It looks like a new development though, and I don't remember such thing mentioned about other viruses.

3) which is why i put the numbers only up to a year ahead as any mass vaccination doesn't seem happening earlier than that.

Re: Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

#135

Post by vagrantJin »

_zg4q wrote: post #109
markdown wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In years gone past, whatever the crisis, America would step up and lead. Many would argue that America was the one who created many of those crises in the first place. American capitalism has led the world to the brink of destruction by climate change, so a loss in status is absolutely warranted. > The really terrifying things don’t get much in the way of discourse. How can this possibly be in the same league as th…

> American capitalism has led the world to the brink of destruction by climate change This sort of alarmist language makes it really difficult to take anything you said seriously. I'm fairly confident most people think climate change is concerning, but not "on the brink of destruction" "American capitalism" is also responsible for the greatest reduction of poverty globally in all of human history. > Nothing else pale…

> "American capitalism" is also responsible for the greatest reduction of poverty globally in all of human history.

European capitalism

>Interesting how America is always to blame for the world's problems. I'm not saying America has been perfect, but it certainly does more good than bad.

Tell that to the Middle East, parts of South East Asia and South Americas.

> talk always revolves around how the US can be doing more, and rarely about what other countries can do.

Now we get to the nub.

The key word here is responsibility. And dont look at production level CO2 emission. The US eclipses every nation on earth when looking at per person energy consumption and resulting CO2 footprint[0]

If India and China's citizens lived like Americans, it would be a global catastrophe. Those two nations are still developing their grids and can't pour money into alternative energy industries and R&D because of cost and scale[1]

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electri...

[1] https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-rdd-budgets-20...

Post script: I'm a neutral observer. But take everything I say with a truckload of salt.

Re: Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

#136

Post by strogonoff »

DanBC wrote: post #104
strogonoff wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is nothing, short of full bio-defense suit, that can help in the densely packed Moscow (or any other large Russian city) subway or bus A mask is very effective and is worn for others, not yourself. At any point in time you might be carrying asymptomatic or not-yet-symptomatic COVID. Your mask prevents your saliva from flying in the air around you, protecting people near you and their parents/susceptible relat…

> A mask is very effective and is worn for others, not yourself You have no evidence to support this point. Scientists (WHO, CDC, Lancet, etc) don't say "masks are very effective", they say that masks _may_ help prevent the spread, but only if they're part of a package of preventative measures. They all say that distancing is much more important than mask wearing.

I think “very effective” is a subjective turn of phrase and no self-respecting org would use it in official communication.

That said, I believe it is settled that airborne transmission happens via saliva droplets, and a properly worn, clean mask is great at stopping those from traveling further than your face (physics) without harming your own health.

Also, I believe it is wrong to equate WHO, CDC messaging with “scientists”. Those organizations are careful not to make specific claims that masks are great at preventing the spread, since a mask is pointless if it’s not a suitable mask (e.g., lets large enough particles through) or is worn badly, since human error is unavoidable, a dirty mask is actively dangerous to the wearer, and over-reliance on improperly worn masks could result in a disaster.

Does it mean we shouldn’t bother deploying our individual common sense in equipping masks? That we wouldn’t make a positive difference to the spread by wearing a good mask properly? I disagree.

Also, having been to crowded subway trains of Seoul recently, I question the claim that Russian cities are somehow crowded enough to render masks useless.

Re: Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

#137

Post by CraigJPerry »

_zg4q wrote: post #109
markdown wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In years gone past, whatever the crisis, America would step up and lead. Many would argue that America was the one who created many of those crises in the first place. American capitalism has led the world to the brink of destruction by climate change, so a loss in status is absolutely warranted. > The really terrifying things don’t get much in the way of discourse. How can this possibly be in the same league as th…

> American capitalism has led the world to the brink of destruction by climate change This sort of alarmist language makes it really difficult to take anything you said seriously. I'm fairly confident most people think climate change is concerning, but not "on the brink of destruction" "American capitalism" is also responsible for the greatest reduction of poverty globally in all of human history. > Nothing else pale…

>> "American capitalism" is also responsible for the greatest reduction of poverty globally in all of human history.

Is that true? I’ve heard this recently from republican leaning sources but it doesn’t appear to be true.

E.g. of the 30 countries with the greatest reduction in poverty rates in the last 20 years its hard to pin point the American influence?

Stretching back further, global poverty reduction begins in earnest in the 19th century yet American capitalism only begins in around the start of the 20th century.

>> it seems like a majority of climate change talk always revolves around how the US can be doing more

An American citizen emits 16 tonnes of co2 per year. Who else even comes close?

Re: Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

#138

Post by _zg4q »

CraigJPerry wrote: post #137
_zg4q wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> American capitalism has led the world to the brink of destruction by climate change This sort of alarmist language makes it really difficult to take anything you said seriously. I'm fairly confident most people think climate change is concerning, but not "on the brink of destruction" "American capitalism" is also responsible for the greatest reduction of poverty globally in all of human history. > Nothing else pale…

>> "American capitalism" is also responsible for the greatest reduction of poverty globally in all of human history. Is that true? I’ve heard this recently from republican leaning sources but it doesn’t appear to be true. E.g. of the 30 countries with the greatest reduction in poverty rates in the last 20 years its hard to pin point the American influence? Stretching back further, global poverty reduction begins in e…

>> "American capitalism" is also responsible for the greatest reduction of poverty globally in all of human history.

> Is that true? I’ve heard this recently from republican leaning sources but it doesn’t appear to be true.

I can't find sources to determine the exact contribution of the US to this, but free market capitalism in general is definitely responsible [0].

>> it seems like a majority of climate change talk always revolves around how the US can be doing more

> An American citizen emits 16 tonnes of co2 per year. Who else even comes close?

Canada is higher, Australia is close behind. I mentioned this before, but US co2 emissions have been in decline, while many other countries are increasing. It will not take India long before it eclipses the US.

America represents 15% of total co2 emissions [1]. If we wanted to reduce globally everyone needs to participate.

[0] https://catalyst.independent.org/2019/06/14/capitalism-remai...

[1] https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emiss...

Re: Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

#139

Post by Misdicorl »

edjrage wrote: post #124
Misdicorl wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition to being ugly, this sentiment is pretty misguided. The selection pressure is far too mild to have any evolutionary impact. To whit: covid selects primarily against individuals beyond their reproductive age, selects far too small of the population (unless we see these deaths continue for decades), and is only mildly selecting for anti mask populations.

Most importantly, being anti-mask can't be attributed to a clear genetic variable (although I suppose there might be some very weak correlation), and natural selection takes way, way longer than a human lifetime to create noticeable results anyway. Not even getting into the fact that there's much more to evolution than natural selection. It actually scares me that supposedly "pro-science" people have such simplified…

Note that the timescale for seeing results is related to the selection pressure. You can see very fast results (e.g. a single or few generations) if the pressure is extraordinary.

AFAIK this only happens via guided intervention (see humans selective breeding of crops, dogs, foxes, etc)

Re: Deep Frozen Arctic Microbes Are Waking Up

#140

Post by casefields »

animal_spirits wrote: post #92
lixtra wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be precise, the 200,000 reindeer were culled [1]. [1] https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10393-020-01474-z...

Thanks for pointing that out. For the unfamiliar (like me a few seconds ago) culling means "to reduce or control the size of (something, such as a herd) by removal (as by hunting or slaughter) of especially weak or sick individuals " [1] [1] https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/cull

Which is why New York is doing so well with COVID now.

New York’s true nursing home death toll cloaked in secrecy:

https://apnews.com/article/212ccd87924b6906053703a00514647f

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