Live data from Hacker News

Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

reuters.com

331–340 of 352 posts

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> owning an expensive, depreciating asset they only use sparingly is more hassle than it’s worth. Appears though that electric cars are likely to be far more durable than gasoline powered cars and cheaper. In ten years a EV will probably cost 80% what a gasoline powered car would and will last 30 years not 15. Cost of ownership over the life of the car would then be 40% of a gasoline car is today. Less considering ma…

I disagree. Batteries are very expensive and ultimately consumable parts. I do not see them lasting 30 years. Consider also it’s unusual for people to own cars for even 10+ years currently, for reasons that apply just as readily to electric or autonomous vehicles. People want the latest and greatest. Many value the warranties they get with new vehicles. Over 30 years the odds of a vehicle being stolen or involved in…

> I do not see them lasting 30 years.

High mileage Tesla's show that the batteries last somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 miles. Which is 25 to 40 years based on the median number of miles people drive per year.

> People want the latest and greatest.

Lot of people just want an affordable way to get from point A to B with a minimum of hassle and expense. The game changer with electric is if the batteries and motors last 25 to 40 years then the rest of the car needs to match that.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#332
post #51

Many, many houses do not have anything other than on-street parking here. Since 2012 I've lived in 5 houses, and three of them had no driveway. I'm currently buying a house which has no drive way, with no way of fitting one. Apparently 1/3 houses have only on street parking. Unless they also provide huge, huge grants to rapidly implement dense onstreet charging, and fast, this is a pipedream and will end up getting p…

most streets have electric lights. people have been trying to develop technology to allow to charge off that existing infrastructure. https://www.fleeteurope.com/en/new-energies/europe/analysis/... is one example - very relevant, as it's from London. but this isn't to say i disagree; quite the contrary, i agree completely that it's a huge problem for EVs in dense urban areas, perhaps the biggest.

Having seen London lampposts being mentioned in this discussion repeatedly, I must wonder - to what overprovisioning levels was the London streetlamp network built?

A typical oldschool sodium lamp pulls approx. 400-500 W. If you replace it with an appropriate LED - and that's critical, there are so many "superb" LED installations recently: yes, it pulls less, yes, it's more whiteish, no, you can't see s... Take two steps away from the very narrow cone and you are standing in total darkness, somebody can mug you and the person looking from the window in the building right next to you would see nothing. So, if you replace it with a proper LED, you save let's say 400 W per lamppost plus any extra the original design left for voltage losses, impedance loop, etc.

Now, this is all fancy schmancy when you install one charger per street and one car uses it occasionally, but when making bold claims like "all electric within few years", you take 4 lampposts x 400 W for 20 cars and you can charge each car with 0.08 kW. That may not be even enough for standby consumption (battery lifesupport - cooling/heating).

So, back to the original question - does London have some kind of special supernetwork running through streets with megawatts to spare, or is it just capitalising of having just few percent of cars charging from it. What's the plan to get to 100 % load within 10 years?

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#333
post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much is a Tesla? Many tens of thousands of pounds. They have to be a lot cheaper or I am just going to buy another second hand car and just use it as a donour car for my existing vehicle.

As of this year you can get an a lease on an electric company car with a benefit in kind tax rate of 0%. i.e You don't have to pay income tax on the lease[0]. That can make an enormous difference to their affordability, and should also inject a large pool of electric cars into the second hand market over the next few years. [0] https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/support/incentives

I do not want to lease a car. I want to own a car. I don't want to be paying monthly for something unless I absolutely have to.

> That can make an enormous difference to their affordability, and should also inject a large pool of electric cars into the second hand market over the next few years.

Still too expensive. My current vehicle cost me £4000. It has been paid for (I got a bank loan, I didn't lease or hire purchase) for many years now. It cost me next to nothing to repair, run, tax and MOT. It has next to no fancy electronics and it just works. I can to take it to any garage in the UK and they can repair it, with Teslas, BMWs, Mercs etc you can't really do that.

There is no benefit to me in owning an electric vehicle.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#334
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet we manage to build skyscrapers. Almost as if in the last 100 years we mastered the art of generating more electricity, laying out high voltage cables and constructing enough electrical substations to meet the demand, whatever that demand might be. See for example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Grid_(Great_Britain)#...

The problem is breadth not depth. In the case of a skyscraper that requires more power you then have only to upgrade a localised substation. In order for the entire country to consume considerably more _current_ that requires a global upgrade everywhere. There are 400,000 substations in the UK. I'm also not saying it's impossible, it's just something that the govt has to do first for this to even be feasible. It also…

Surely funding these upgrades can be funded from the future booked revenue from the charging. I am sure the private sector would be chomping at the bit to capture a monopoly for these services as well.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#335

Many, many houses do not have anything other than on-street parking here. Since 2012 I've lived in 5 houses, and three of them had no driveway. I'm currently buying a house which has no drive way, with no way of fitting one. Apparently 1/3 houses have only on street parking. Unless they also provide huge, huge grants to rapidly implement dense onstreet charging, and fast, this is a pipedream and will end up getting p…

Hopefully by then the cars will be able to drive themselves to a charger or park themselves away from your home.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. Batteries are very expensive and ultimately consumable parts. I do not see them lasting 30 years. Consider also it’s unusual for people to own cars for even 10+ years currently, for reasons that apply just as readily to electric or autonomous vehicles. People want the latest and greatest. Many value the warranties they get with new vehicles. Over 30 years the odds of a vehicle being stolen or involved in…

> I do not see them lasting 30 years. High mileage Tesla's show that the batteries last somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 miles. Which is 25 to 40 years based on the median number of miles people drive per year. > People want the latest and greatest. Lot of people just want an affordable way to get from point A to B with a minimum of hassle and expense. The game changer with electric is if the batteries and motor…

I am not sure how you converted mileage to time here. Dividing a distance by speed would only works in assumption that the battery does not degrade over time by itself. Is there any working 25 years old Li-ion battery somewhere?

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe my point wasn’t clear. Very little will change (in the short term at least), the “deadline” is a misnomer, and whichever day finally becomes the real leaving day (as it’s been and no doubt will continue to be stretched out and kicked down the road) everyone will wake up and notice it’s much the same as any other, the histrionic cries coming from Twitter users notwithstanding. As to “nothing did need to change”…

No- the UK enters a WTO agreement on the 1st jan, that means imports taxes, duties and restrictions on a whole bunch of things. It’s impossible to plan for because it can all change at the last minute. It’s easy to say nothing will change if it doesn’t affect you. I don’t understand why a trade agreement with a few extra bits of international legislation was put to a general public referendum. It’s got nothing to do…

> No- the UK enters a WTO agreement on the 1st jan, that means imports taxes, duties and restrictions on a whole bunch of things

The WTO's goal is to reduce trade friction, hence it puts ceilings on duties. The UK (now) sets its own taxes, duties and restrictions, being part of the WTO does not affect that. As a service dominated economy it's in the UK's interests to lower protective barriers - setting tariffs to zero would be of a net benefit to the UK. You'll note that the UK is a founding member of the WTO, its trade either side of the deadline will not violate any WTO protocol. Standards (ironically) will also be entirely in alignment with the EU. Processes will not change either as there already exist processes for handling non-EU trade.

The places where import taxes, duties and restrictions will change is exports into the EU, hence the desire for a trade agreement.

> It’s impossible to plan for because it can all change at the last minute.

No physical processes will change. Numbers on a spreadsheet may do.

> It’s easy to say nothing will change if it doesn’t affect you.

Yet you argue that people shouldn't have been allowed a say, and it will force you to argue that it doesn't affect most people while trying to maintain that an unimaginable doom will be brought on the entire UK population.

Pick one or the other but to maintain both is absurd.

> I don’t understand why a trade agreement with a few extra bits of international legislation

Those "few extra bits of international legislation" include massive changes to the UK constitution. The same lament could be said about entering into the Lisbon Treaty without a referendum (or, even better, a single issue general election), among many other changes that led to a vote where people got to show their frustration about not being consulted or even listened to previously.

> was put to a general public referendum

It was put to a referendum because those in power thought it would kill the thing dead, and the alternative was seeing a political party (UKIP) get seats in Westminster, if not usurp one of the major parties. It was only a combination of electoral fraud (in Farage's case) and the first past the post system (in the party's case) that kept them out of Westminster, that wouldn't have occured again, as the referendum result shows.

> It’s got nothing to do with the average joe on the street

Again, please, be serious.

> the general public has no understanding of this.

The choice is simple, give up sovereignty for access to a large trade bloc. That's not hard for anyone with an IQ above 85 to understand. The minutiae and ramifications are much harder but the UK is a representative democracy, not an Athenian democracy of the kind that might allow the kind of condescending sneer at the plebs you are partaking in.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I do not see them lasting 30 years. High mileage Tesla's show that the batteries last somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 miles. Which is 25 to 40 years based on the median number of miles people drive per year. > People want the latest and greatest. Lot of people just want an affordable way to get from point A to B with a minimum of hassle and expense. The game changer with electric is if the batteries and motor…

I am not sure how you converted mileage to time here. Dividing a distance by speed would only works in assumption that the battery does not degrade over time by itself. Is there any working 25 years old Li-ion battery somewhere?

I've messed with some 20 year old lion cells. They work okay.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the field of electricity generation, sure. Technology is there, apart from storage technology. But, given still higher costs and range anxiety, it will be very difficult to convince most consumers to buy electric cars. It will be most probably only generational shift: people born before ~1990 will still buy petrol cars till they die out, and younger generations will progressively shift, having different habits. It…

> "industrial heat, and residential heating " For decades Russia has used distruct heating using waste heat from nuclear powerplants, its the chealest heatsource known to man. More modern approach is probably hydrogen and heat pumps, but either works. Range anxiety is a brain bug for folks that have never driven electric.

Yeah right, and those are simply older folks. Most of them will never switch. Those who will be only buying their first car in 2030 will probably buy electric, sure, but it will be another 20 years before these people will become the majority of buyers. These people are in the middle school now.

Re: Britain to ban new petrol cars and vans by 2030 on road to net zero emissions

#340
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities went from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles because the incentives made it attractive to do it. The same can be done for for electric vehicles, it’s just a matter of putting the horse in front of the cart.

And the incentives are there. Electric cars are quiet, clean, and much cheaper to drive and to maintain.

But apparently not enough for most people, otherwise no one would want an ICE car anymore.
Post reply on HN