Live data from Hacker News

Intel's disruption is now complete

jamesallworth.medium.com

611–620 of 638 posts

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#611
post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't Steve Jobs usually greenlight 2 or 3 teams to design then just pick the most promising one to go to production? Sometimes it makes sense to have a bit of competition, but having multiple prototypes (often with slightly different design parameters - e.g. a reliable design, an advanced design, and a moonshot) is a better competition than having managers attacking each other with passive-aggressive Powerpoint sho…

I worked at a company founded by an ex-Apple CEO. He tried this technique because Steve Jobs did it. The problem was that it doesn’t work at all unless you truly have 2 or 3 entire teams of fully competent people to pull it off. It can work at Apple because they’re absolutely massive and they only focus on a very small number of products. In our case, making two teams work independently on the same problem just creat…

> In our case, making two teams work independently on the same problem just created a situation where each team had half as many resources.

You got it. Not to mention that you're incentivizing them to hoard work/attention/resources from one another, or engage in other organizational anti-patterns that would obviously be/become problems to solve if you didn't put the artificial "constraint" of internal competition in the way.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#612
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

arm in the cloud is already a thing. A lot of companies have been moving towards server-less infrastructure in the past few years, and I can't imagine it makes any difference at all for a large set of use-cases whether you're executing your 50-line go lambdas on x86 or arm.

The vast majority of the potential market is running somewhere between some and all of their stuff on x86 stuff in the cloud. Of course someone could launch an ARM-only cloud. They'd either be severely limiting their potential market, or they'd have to convince prospects to migrate to ARM. Certainly not impossible, but is it competitive?

What migration? Most of the code I have run in the cloud in the past 5 years has been in the form of managed services. I don't really know or care if AWS is running my code on ARM or x86.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd probably be nervous about TSMC opening a fab in AZ then

That fab will never open. Just like Foxconn's plant in Wisconsin. It'll just keep getting pushed back, and pushed back. Its job is to keep the politicians happy (or at least not angry), and it doesn't need to be built in order to serve that purpose. That fab will never, ever, ever run a single wafer.

I suspect it very much will exist, but only once it's a node or two behind. It'll never be bleeding edge.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#614
post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. In fact, I would argue it should not be possible to have this "the best team" - if teams in different parts of the org are directly comparable, then they must be doing the same exact thing, and why do you have multiple teams scattered around doing identical things? That is, a well structured org will have teams working on Thing A and Thing B. If a brand new Thing C comes along, it isn't either Thing A or Thing B…

At one time IBM had the resources to assign the same major challenge to two internal organizations.

Fair point, and that sounds pretty awesome for getting data on things, but a luxury most don't have. I suspect nearly every organization where this is the case is doing it accidentally rather than conscientiously.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#615
post #17

There’s just one missing detail here: intel was terribly, terribly bad at executing its plan. Tiger lake was supposed to be here on 10++nm or 7nm or whatever much improved process, which would make it extremely competitive if not the absolute best. Intel very well knew they’re in trouble if the expected process upgrades don’t work and they didn’t. It’s not like folks there don’t know how to plot that core vs Apple si…

Did they know that? Like, did the executives know? They should have been suffocating their R&D with cash, but has that happened? Instead Intel is the world leader in buying companies, dissolving them and EOLing their products. I think on more than one occasion, they bought a customer hardware company and refunded every buyer of whatever gadget that company made.

Naaaah, instead of that they've decided to get rid of senior employees with huge generational knowledge.

[0] "Proportionately, employees in their 50s were three times more likely to lose their jobs than workers in their 30s, according to a document obtained by The Oregonian/OregonLive that tallies every Intel employee in the United States."

[0] https://www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/2015/08/intel_layo...

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#616

The entire world has their eggs in one basket - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Say whatever about Intel, I am hoping that they get back on their feet in next few years with 5nm manufacturing. Since when is competition and choice a bad thing? If you're a chip design firm and you have a 8-month backlog to get your masks made at TSMC, what do you do then? TSMC can be world's best fab but we need to address…

Tick-Tock-Tick-Tock-Tock-Tock-Tock-Tock ....

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#617
post #609

That chart is not of competing technologies, but of market demand and one technology. The classic disruptive chart shows two technologies improving in parallel, but the performance customers demand doesn't increase as fast, so eventually the disruptive technology is "good enough" for those customers (even though the incumbent technology is better still: it "overshoots") and has other desired qualities (like battery e…

> Here, of course, Apple is unlikely to sell its chips to other manufacturers... How do you gather? I think it'd make sense for Apple to earn more money by acquiring Intel's customers.

Firstly, it's not Apple's way. They favour vertical integration and premium-pricing.

Secondly, why have part of the pie when you can have the whole pie? i.e. instead of just acquiring Intel's customers, also acquire their customers, all the way to the end-consumer, gobbling up the margins at each step of the way.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Multinational corporations commonly avoid taxes by keeping profits offshore in a low tax jurisdiction. That does happen, but many including the biggest tech companies found a clever way around it. Via a combination of ultra-low interest bearing bond sales and share repurchases. It does the same thing but avoids those taxes. So there's no incentive for profit retention on net . > COVID-19 isn't a rainy day, it's a o…

> That does happen, but many including the biggest tech companies found a clever way around it. Via a combination of ultra-low interest bearing bond sales and share repurchases. It does the same thing but avoids those taxes. So there's no incentive for profit retention on net . The loans allow the money to be transferred back into the domestic entity, but there are then restrictions on issuing more in dividends or bu…

> but there are then restrictions on issuing more in dividends or buybacks than you have in profits, and borrowing isn't considered profit. So they can get the money back into the US and use it for wasteful empire building but they can't give it to the shareholders

The argument has been subtly shifted here, from businesses not being able to return capital in the form of dividends due to taxes to business not being able to do so due to loan covenants. Irrespective of the latter point, it is clear that given low interest rates, repatriation tax policy has no effect on incentives for capital repatriation. The biggest most profitable companies that pay out large dividends and do share buybacks make frequent use of this.

As for the loan covenant restrictions, from an economic stability perspective, it's very poor incentive design to allow companies to repay dividends when they're not profitable. This is in effect what you mean when you say "restrictions on issuing more in dividends or buybacks than you have in profits". A business thus impacted should focus on getting profitable. Liquidation is also an option. Dividends and buybacks should not be.

> This is why "bailouts" should be distributed uniformly without regard to risk of failure

This policy sends a message that foresight doesn't matter and reinforces a short-term oriented time horizon. Not only is that worse for society, it's worse for business in the long-run due to investment disincentives. Providing temporary support to individuals or local small businesses to preserve communities, especially vulnerable ones, is a different story and this is not an argument against it. Bailing out large well-managed businesses on the other hand makes no economic sense, these businesses can easily be restructured, sold, and given a new lease on life under new ownership. Antitrust concerns should be handled by courts, not by bailouts.

> increase investment or consumption, which is what you want in a down economy anyway.

Not all investment is equal, some investments have a much better return than others. Good policy incentivizes the latter as opposed to incentivizing indiscriminately. Investment for the sake of investment leads to waste and is bad for the economy in the long-run.

> and is too efficient to have enough slack to bridge the gap. The inefficiency wasn't caused by the business occupying space it couldn't use, because at the time nobody could use that space -- the loss was a sunk cost to society at large.

This is very oversimplified. Larger businesses can tap into financing, working capital, and have many other tools available to deal with this. And if they can't, that's not efficiency, that's poor operational discipline. Since the owners stand to gain when such a business does well, they should be ready to lose when things go poorly. It shouldn't matter if the cause is one akin to a force majeure.

> Blockbuster's product wasn't as good as Netflix and now they're gone.

Netflix had a much lower cost of capital in the beginning and also a much lower fixed expense. In their case not having storefronts improved the product but that's not a fixed relationship. One can come up with many cases where the opposite holds. Therefore it only applies to that particular case and doesn't support the general argument. Similar nuances exist for the other anecdotal examples listed.

F.A. Hayek provides great arguments against government intervention in the economy. There can be a role in providing assistance to individuals or communities, Hayek was famously supportive of both, but it's important to not let that bleed over into market dynamics which must remain competition-based.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#619
post #273
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about other ARM chips?

Other ARM chips are aiming for smartphone/tablet and are more than enough for this. No one using samsung latest top phone is thinking "if only that phone was 15% faster ! this is a major issue". No one makes ARM chips for laptop, because of the chicken and egg issue. Windows on ARM going mainline could change it.

We've seen some of this already, for example with Microsoft's SQ1/SQ2 SoC manufactured with Qualcomm for the Surface Pro X series of laptops. They already emulate x86 well enough to run apps compiled for 32bit x86, and they should be coming out with 64bit support soon.

Once Microsoft is shipping these layers within Windows, it's only a matter of time before the use of ARM CPUs in more laptops takes off.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#620
post #273
post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about other ARM chips?

Other ARM chips are aiming for smartphone/tablet and are more than enough for this. No one using samsung latest top phone is thinking "if only that phone was 15% faster ! this is a major issue". No one makes ARM chips for laptop, because of the chicken and egg issue. Windows on ARM going mainline could change it.

Does windows on ARM support emulation of x86 apps? Probably the biggest advantage for windows right now is tat you can run apps from 20 years ago perfectly fine, and of course the large library of playable games built over the years.
Post reply on HN