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Billion Dollar Startup Ideas [video]

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Re: Billion Dollar Startup Ideas [video]

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1-2mn is likely much more fragile source of income in a long term comparing to capital acquired from successful unicorn.

Sure, but that's a bit like saying "if you have a job, you could lose it. But if you win the lottery you're pretty much set"

It is not about level of income, but about long term sustainability, which I believe should be main goal.

Small business is fragile endeavor, comparing to both regular employment and scaling small business to larger one with higher resistance to risks.

Re: Billion Dollar Startup Ideas [video]

#74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but that's a bit like saying "if you have a job, you could lose it. But if you win the lottery you're pretty much set"

It is not about level of income, but about long term sustainability, which I believe should be main goal. Small business is fragile endeavor, comparing to both regular employment and scaling small business to larger one with higher resistance to risks.

Sure, but if stability is your goal, you're much more likely to find stability by attempting to create a small business than by attempting to create billion dollar business.

My suspicion is that a person who is constantly chasing a billion dollar business is going to have to make a lot more hops than someone chasing a more modest goal.

This is not a recommendation to avoid those billion dollar goals, just an observation on relative probabilities, and what is an appropriate target if your goal is stability.

Re: Billion Dollar Startup Ideas [video]

#75
Haven't watched the full video yet but the saying that one shouldn't build what everyone else is building doesn't seem like good advise.

Yahoo was hugely popular when Google launched. Orkut and MySpace were very popular when Facebook launched. There were many popular messaging services when Whatsapp launched.

In fact I think just digging out something from the Google graveyard would be a good idea. 4-5 million users might be a pittance for Google but most of us would be more than happy to have even half of that customer base.

Re: Billion Dollar Startup Ideas [video]

#76

Haven't watched the full video yet but the saying that one shouldn't build what everyone else is building doesn't seem like good advise. Yahoo was hugely popular when Google launched. Orkut and MySpace were very popular when Facebook launched. There were many popular messaging services when Whatsapp launched. In fact I think just digging out something from the Google graveyard would be a good idea. 4-5 million users…

Yeah. It's actually also against what Peter Thiel says: Be the last to enter market, to do things right I guess. Another counterexample seems to be note-taking apps. Even though this is something native to many OS, there seem to be a couple of successful players: Notion, Bear, Roamreasearch. If you solve a relevant problem for people, who cares if something similar was available before but not solving the problem?

On a larger note: There's is so much contradicting startup advise out there it almost feels useless. Dunno, maybe those people who have the real insight are just to busy to share

Re: Billion Dollar Startup Ideas [video]

#77
I think there’s still plenty of low hanging fruit out there, especially for B2C, people just aren’t thinking about it in the right way. Too many resources have been devoted to providing marginal conveniences (all of the delivery companies), or to entertainment.

I still think what the advanced world needs most is an easily accessible way to form strong human connections. Organizations throughout history, such as religions, armies, fraternities, and secret societies, have figured out that formula. But, obviously those groups aren’t a good option for everyone. Great relationships are the most valuable things we have, and, judging by how many lonely people are out there, they are in short supply.

Re: Billion Dollar Startup Ideas [video]

#79

Haven't watched the full video yet but the saying that one shouldn't build what everyone else is building doesn't seem like good advise. Yahoo was hugely popular when Google launched. Orkut and MySpace were very popular when Facebook launched. There were many popular messaging services when Whatsapp launched. In fact I think just digging out something from the Google graveyard would be a good idea. 4-5 million users…

Certainly you need to consider both supply and demand, and how fast both are growing. Ignoring any of these variables turns your prediction into luck. You need a way to assess their relative size. Looking at how successful others in the market currently are is actually a pretty good way to assess this. Except if their high margins may be based in large part on factors you can't benefit from, like network and monopoly (e.g. IP) advantages.

That's kind of the case for all this kind of big-picture advice. There's some truth but some missing variables that may be just as important. "Bread crumbs" was a good way to describe it, I think.

Re: Billion Dollar Startup Ideas [video]

#80
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MySpace was massive when Facebook was a year or two old. I had accounts on both and MySpace looked way more attractive compared to FB (it had the feel of Instagram). So no, FB did not take over overnight. And even a few years into FB, no one (yes, no one) knew that FB will go past MySpace and there will simply be no comparison between the two 10 or 15 years down the road. When FB took over MySpace a full FOUR years i…

You must have had a very different experience if you think 'MySpace looked way more attractive compared to FB'.... MySpace pages were ugly as hell, with tiled backgrounds, autoplay music, and mismatched themes. Facebook was CLEAN, and everyone's page looked uniform and consistently styled. This lack of customization, I think, is what made it become so popular. That, and the feed; myspace never had the concept of taki…

I attribute the success more to creating a tight and more complete personal network due to the campus focus early on. I do think the features of MySpace were a novelty that was also wearing off. And fb provided a cleaner bug free interface
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