Billion Dollar Startup Ideas [video]

Ideas are rarely the problem. It's the execution and commitment.

> I equate startup advice to those "Teach you how to become a millionaire" books you find at grocery stores.

Without these books, finance wouldn’t have enough money to play with. Schmucks are a key ingredient of the ecosystem.

Same for startups. You need a substrate of failed founders and employees to create the raw materials that feed the successful juggernauts.

I haven't made it to the end of the video but here's my take on the subject: it is true - everyone is trying to create the exact same thing over and over again. But there are some key components that everyone misses. You can't replace facebook. People complain about facebook, but those of us who steer clear from it are a minority. And if potentially I were to create a facebook which solves the problems I have with the existing one, I'd be making a facebook clone that fits the requirements of a small subset of those who aren't on facebook. Basically insignificant market share and it would be a catastrophic waste of time, effort and money. Hence the reason why I'm not doing it(also because I find social networks inherently boring).

The second big misconception is that in order to make a billion or even a million dollar product, you need to focus on a personal problem you are trying to solve. Essentially your product should solve your problem. And this lures people into an entirely different rabbit hole - convincing themselves that "X" is their problem and that many other people have that problem. Often no one has that problem or it's so insignificant that no one will even bother giving it a thought.

The next big rabbit hole are apps. Don't get me wrong, apps are great and I rely on my phone heavily. However the Pareto rule is in full effect here. People will have 60 apps installed, and will use around 20% of those. And they will use heavily 20% of that subset. Say the average human being spends, say, an hour and a half on his or her phone a day. 80% of which will be messaging/social media, where you can't compete. So you are left competing with 10 other apps for the user's attention for a portion of the remaining 36 minutes. Sure, you could get a few thousand users out of several billion people. But again, Pareto's rule: most of your revenue will come from a small subset of those. Which often defeats the purpose. It's really hard to compete as a startup or an indie developer, when thousands of companies have thousands of astonishing developers at their disposal + the finances to back up any new project.

In addition, an idea in itself is worth nothing. It's what you do with it and how you market it that counts.

Which leads me to my final point. Billion dollar ideas are really hard to execute because the bar has been set very high. It's not something a single person or a small team can pull off. Those who do are the black swans. On a semi-related note, when the pandemic started, I was pretty convinced that many people will step up their game and come up with relevant products which will help the world adapt to the new normal. Which didn't happen to my big surprise. And I'm kind of disappointed that I didn't take on the challenge either(too much on my plate already + it's hard to work alone on a project). There were so many opportunities that were entirely missed... Shame but oh well... Next time maybe...

MySpace was massive when Facebook was a year or two old. I had accounts on both and MySpace looked way more attractive compared to FB (it had the feel of Instagram).

So no, FB did not take over overnight. And even a few years into FB, no one (yes, no one) knew that FB will go past MySpace and there will simply be no comparison between the two 10 or 15 years down the road.

When FB took over MySpace a full FOUR years in [0], investors knew FB had momentum, but no one (yes, no one) had any idea why.

Not only that, many investors had no second thoughts about MySpace, and it felt like a competition space, instead of a winner take all. There was still an opinion that MySpace will retake the top spot again 'any minute now.'

So why FB took over MySpace? We don't know. Yes, we don't know in 2020, 16 years later.

(I'm not dismissing hard work, marketing, execution, commitment. But it was there for both FB and MySpace. It's a pre-requisite. You think MySpace folks slacked off and that's why FB got ahead? think again).

Stop monday morning quarter backing.

[0] https://www.google.com/search?q=when+did+facebook+overtake+m...

The internet is rife with blogs (and now podcasts) about what can be a billion dollar startup ideas. It just depends on where someone sees an opportunity and exploits it. (not as easy, but thats about the crux of it)

I wanted to touch upon the other thing Garry Tan mentioned when he said that reason people try the same ideas is because "desire is mimetic". We want what other people want. Same ideas especially ones which have already been successful. And he cites examples like Podcasts, Travel plans, and local events app.

Out of the three mentioned, local events app and travel plans apps have been tried multiple times but never been successful. Its something when you ask casual travelers what they would want in a travel app and travel planning help is their first pick and local events and guidance is their second pick. Most of these ideas fold because travel is very cold market for an investor and most dont want to invest.

Also, quite a few folks now pick ideas based on what is a hot market ergo what is being funded, and quite a few times its a variant or a rendition of what is already successful (or something a success in one vertical can be tried in another).

That being said, I do think that you need to have the experiences of the people you are building the product for. It may or may not be the same experience as others.