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Intel's disruption is now complete

jamesallworth.medium.com

551–560 of 638 posts

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#551
post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was obviously referring to Samsung. As for ASML, if it were the key to Intel's woes, the article we are all commenting would not have been written.

> As for ASML, if it were the key to Intel's woes, the article we are all commenting would not have been written. It not being the issue discussed in the current article doesn't mean it isn't a critical issue.

At risk of entering Rube Goldberg territory, I suppose we could speak of two baskets hanging by a common thread.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#552
post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All countries where there is a class of people who go into politics as their only career. The UK is riddled with them.

In some ways, this is the result of equality through having paid salaries for politicians. While the previous arrangement of having to be independently wealthy excluded most people from getting into politics, it did mean that it wasn't a career choice. It was something you did after you gained wealth and experience, at the end of a career in an actual industry and most likely running a business or being a senior mana…

While the arrangement was not perfect by any means, it did mean that the politicians of that era were men of substance with a wealth of knowledge tempered by real-world experience.

Yes exactly. I don't hold with the notion that the head of the NHS has to have been a doctor or the head of the MoD has to have been a soldier - there is value in being about to look at thing objectively with an outsider's perspective. But at the same time, I do absolutely believe that the Chancellor of the Exchequer should be someone, from any industry, who has employed people and had to make payroll on payday come hell or high water.

It would also benefit everyone if some life experience was required before becoming a teacher.

The ballot box is not a high enough bar when all the candidates are of low quality.

Agreed again, voting now is about holding your nose and choosing the least-worst. I want "none of the above" on the ballot paper and if it wins, the real candidates are banned from politics for life. Repeat until some decent candidates show up. But none of our incumbent politicians would ever pass that law for obvious reasons.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#553
post #546
post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have any issues, but I did do my research. We are talking about vertical integration are we not? Don't see how any of that is relevant then.

Which is exactly the proof of how Linux fails at that, by not proving it, thanks for confirming my assertion. And since you did your research the wider public would appreciate to learn in what consumer shop one can get such out of the box experience.

I don't even know what you are arguing about anymore.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#554

As someone who worked on Intel's phone chip: we definitely didn't win it. We fucked it up twelve ways to Sunday. Why: giant egos. There were turf wars between Austin, Santa Clara and Israel over who would design it, and the team that won out had long since lost its best principle engineers and had no clue how to spin the architecture to meet the design win. Otellini's hindsight hedge is pure spin: we knew the landing…

I have a theory about why turf wars like this happens: the more successful and wealthy an entity, the greater opportunity there is for a manager to take wealth instead of make it. When you’re scrappy and broke, the only path to success is to make the company successful. When the company is rich and multitudinous, an individual can gain more from politics and turf wars rather than actually trying to push an already hi…

holy cow this is so, so apt. i am stealing this explanation for the rest of forever. this is exactly why this happens... i wonder how to structure organizations / incentives to alleviate this.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#555
post #548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some ways, this is the result of equality through having paid salaries for politicians. While the previous arrangement of having to be independently wealthy excluded most people from getting into politics, it did mean that it wasn't a career choice. It was something you did after you gained wealth and experience, at the end of a career in an actual industry and most likely running a business or being a senior mana…

While the arrangement was not perfect by any means, it did mean that the politicians of that era were men of substance with a wealth of knowledge tempered by real-world experience. Yes exactly. I don't hold with the notion that the head of the NHS has to have been a doctor or the head of the MoD has to have been a soldier - there is value in being about to look at thing objectively with an outsider's perspective. But…

Absolutely agreed on all counts.

The point about teachers is also something I think is quite neglected today. A teacher with real-world experience of their subject is vastly better than someone who has known nothing of the world outside education. And that's of value far beyond the subject matter: they can provide career guidance and real-world perspectives of all kinds that less experienced teachers simply can't provide. Certainly some of the best teachers I had were those who had done real work.

Regarding the Chancellor of the Exchequer, I absolutely agree. But I think it should go further. I think all MPs should have direct experience of running a business and having to make payroll. Too many of them lack understanding of the reality of what a business is, and how the economy runs. It would temper some of the most extreme and dangerous actions, from taxation to social welfare spending. Too many think businesses are "rich" and can be taxed with impunity to pay for things of dubious benefit. It's easy to be profligate with other people's money if it seems like it's there for the taking. Experience might make them think about how to grow the economy to benefit us all, and reduce unnecessary expenditure. They might also think more carefully about supporting small businesses while ensuring large multinationals also pay their dues. I personally paid more corporation tax than several multinationals, despite earning less than the living wage.

For the first time, I set up and ran my own small consulting business for the past two years after being made redundant. (I'm also in the UK.) It was a small-time business with only one client for a couple of small contracts, and I since got a new permanent position. But the experience of having to do all the company registration, contract negotiation, invoicing, bookkeeping, dealing with accountants, paying corporation tax, and finally getting it all wound up was an invaluable experience which will likely be of great benefit in better understanding the businesses I work for. It gave me a proper appreciation of the realities of running a business, including all of the responsibilities you have to shoulder. I think every elected politician should have this experience. Every self-employed person in the country has a better understanding of the practical reality of economics and taxation than most of our politicians. And I think all politicians should be aware of the reality of what the rest of the country has to bear in response to the decisions they make.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#556
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they have been a commodity for a long time. Rephrased, the discussion is similar to, "Will GE make a comeback in the refrigerator market?" Intel isn't going anywhere, they have many, many big customers to satisfy who simply cannot shift to ARM due to ROIs <=0. And after 30+ years of this, I also don' think there's anything new or revolutionary in silicon fabrication on the horizon. I stopped getting excited a…

> And after 30+ years of this, I also don' think there's anything new or revolutionary in silicon fabrication on the horizon. Why so? Few more material, and device generations are on the way. Litho has went through more generation changes in the last 1 decade, than in any previous one. Whole new device classes are on the way: optics on silicon, new memory, logic in the backend, and logic on package. Semiconductor eng…

> Semiconductor engineering is still a career suicide though, that haven't changed in the last few decades.

Could you go into more detail?

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#557
post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would have to be quite a long war where the military couldn’t rely on existing equipment and inventories of chips for a while. It’s not like most military equipment uses the latest CPUs anyway. And if a war did drag on for years there would be opportunity to switch suppliers and manufacturers or build new infrastructure.

Who said anything about any wars? There are rumors abound about TSMC infrastructure being booby-trapped due to national security concerns. As soon as China reaches 14-28nm and is able to sustain internal needs using home grown foundries an "accident" in TSMC facilities could put mainland in a position of silicon leader for at least half a decade.

Why half a decade? They just have to buy new equipment. The know-how remains.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#558
post #527
post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> TMSC will make us suffer due to monopoly The fears have less to do with TSMC the company and more the fact it's a pawn in the geopolitical chess game between the US (and her pacific allies) and China. The issues with supply chains through Taiwan have little to do with whether gamers are buying their CPUs from AMD or Intel, but the fact that a critical piece of infrastructure in the Western economy is very precariou…

Sounds like US screw up to prevent a monopoly which is being broken by an outsider, now complaining that there are no western alternatives to the outsider. Anyway, the machinery that TSMC is using is produced in Netherlands AFAIK. US should be fine, there's a lot of capital available to buy the machinery, recruit the talent and build the Fabs if it comes to TSMC not being reliable partner at some point.

Critical technologies like optical proximity correction are fab proprietary

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds like an ironclad law. But is there empirical evidence for it? And a rational explanation behind it? I mean it's very strict as a rule: "in EVERY case the second group ... ". Strong claims like that require strong evidence and a theory of WHY that would (always) be the outcome. I'm thinking of society as large. That is an organization too. Are we doomed by bureaucracy?

> But is there empirical evidence for it? And a rational explanation behind it? I don't have empirical evidence for it, but I can take a stab at a rational explanation. The second group faces no opposition in their pursuit for control of the organization and its processes. At best, members of that group will fight among themselves, but certainly won't find resistance from the first group. Control over various parts o…

Shouldn't the senior leadership team be providing resistance against the bureaucrats? This doesn't always happen, but I think it does sometimes.

Re: Intel's disruption is now complete

#560
post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I've linked to many times on HN: The Iron Law of Bureaucracy > Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people": > First, there will be those who are devoted to the goals of the organization. Examples are dedicated classroom teachers in an educational bureaucracy, many of the engineers and launch technicians and scientists at NASA, even some agricu…

That sounds like an ironclad law. But is there empirical evidence for it? And a rational explanation behind it? I mean it's very strict as a rule: "in EVERY case the second group ... ". Strong claims like that require strong evidence and a theory of WHY that would (always) be the outcome. I'm thinking of society as large. That is an organization too. Are we doomed by bureaucracy?

Think of it in terms of thermodynamics. The first group requires extra energy relative to the second group to perform roles of leadership, since those are secondary goals. The second group is instead naturally drawn to the roles of direction of the group. Thus, the lowest energy state will be one where the second group is in charge. Over time, things will gravitate to that state as it is the global minimum.
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