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Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

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251–260 of 273 posts

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What other risks are there that are directly intentionally human driven that could cause such an extreme amount of destruction, death and societal collapse over the span of a few hours?

Meteorite strike or supervolcano eruption that we could have protected ourselves against but didn't because of resources spent on nuclear war prevention. Not sure why you added the "within a few hours" qualifier or "intentionally human driven". Have you already thought of something that takes longer, is done by humans accidentally, or is natural? Is it climate change? Does that already answer your question?

Yeah pretty much, because there is nothing else that compares in that way. Climate change is long and drawn out, meteors and disasters are acts of nature.

There is nothing else so swiftly and completely destructive that is entirely driven by humans and their choice as to whether they should destroy or not.

That's the thing about nuclear war, unlike all those other things, it really comes down to a few humans deciding not to do it. That's what makes it more terrifying than those other ones.

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#252
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're underestimating the number of target between just the US and Russia. Each has approximately 1600 warheads deployed. Even with using 3 warheads per target, that means over 500 cities/targets in each country destroyed. Of course neither side would use all their active warheads on the opposing country; they would save some for other nations. Then you have to factor in British and French warheads. Israel,…

> Of course neither side would use all their active warheads on the opposing country; they would save some for other nations Nor would all of those warheads will detonate, land on target (some will hit and target the ocean) or launch successfully. > But full scale nuclear war would eliminate North America, I doubt it. Maybe you're being hyperbolic here, to whit. If you eliminate the top 20 US ports, the aircraft carr…

True, perhaps 10% might fail. But I think you're underestimating how many targets there are across the US. Both military bases as well as industrial targets. First strike targets would hit Montana and Kansas as both have Minutemen ICBM silos. Omaha would be wiped out since Offut AFB is next door. Louisiana has shipbuilding that would get nuked, as does Wisconsin. If you learn about SIOP, and accept that the Soviets had similar plans, you'll understand. The USSR didn't intend a nuclear war to "liberate" the USA. It planned to destroy the country, not just its military capabilities.

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#253
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Today arsenals are so much smaller than during the Cold War. Both the US and the USSR had almost 70K warheads; today they have 1600 each. Reading about SIOP plans makes you realize how hard the US planned to hit the USSR; I have no doubts the Soviets had similar plans. Today, 3200 warheads can ruin your day; but 140K warheads (discounting the relatively small number of Chinese/French/UK warheads) would ruin all but t…

The thing is 70,000 wouldn’t get launched because both sides would be targeting nuclear facilities in a first strike.

Ok, say 10% fails upon launch or fails to detonate. Now you're down to 63K per side. Say each side reserves 50% for targets of opportunity, they've each launched 31K warheads. Goodbye civilization.

The UN reports that there are currently 580 cities in the world with populations greater than 1M. Doesn't take many warheads or launchers to wipe those out.

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Realistically, if there was a full-scale nuclear war, famine and violence would kill 90-95% of people. It would also destroy a lot of our technological capabilities. There are only a handful of silicon fabs in the world, and they have complex supply chains. It could bring us back to some kind of a technological middle age, except we'd have guns, electricity and radios.

What if the Southern Hemisphere isn't targeted? Fallout will mostly effect the northern hemisphere, and if there isn't a nuclear winter (or a milder one than projected), then the damage will be largely economic to those nations. But their infrastructure and ability to grow food would remain intact. I suppose refugees and the political vacuum created would be significant problems.

IIRC the nuclear winter would not be as bad as once predicted, you could see a 10 celsius drop. That would still be enough to greatly reduce crop yields though.

If you couple reduced crop yields with millions of hungry refugees, economic instability and general chaos... Who knows. Unlikely to result in human extinction, but very painful for everyone no doubt. I do think it seems unlikely that people would nuke Australia and South America. I honestly hope that if nukes are ever fired, as many countries as possible remain untouched.

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#255
post #198

This is just an argument against a straw man. Nuclear war, is bad, any mass killing is bad, any society collapse is bad. It means actual prolongated suffering for most humans. Nuclear caused extinction is actually a preferable outcome, I'd rather just instantly die than live in a brutal post sociatle apocalypse. It's like the back talk against climate warming, trying to down play it as a non extinction event. Well th…

It argues against a 'straw man' that I personally have talked with people that think that nuclear war would certainly destroy all of humankind. As well, its not arguing against the nuclear war being Super-Bad, the conclusion even talks about an idea for making nuclear war less dangerous so that it is less likely to kill off as many people.

> Nuclear caused extinction is actually a preferable outcome, I'd rather just instantly die than live in a brutal post sociatle apocalypse.

I do happen to disagree with this, but that is a personal decision and I understand why you would prefer that.

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#256

What is the point of writing a post like this? I feel like there is an impetus in the 'rational' tech press to want to downplay threats like nuclear war, and emphasize dubious threats like AGI. I really don't care if nuclear war doesn't kill every single human instantly . So what? Full scale nuclear war means instant civilization collapse.... full stop . Should we forget about disarmament?....guess not every single p…

I wrote this post, and the point is to improve discussion of societal risks. As others have pointed out, nuclear war doesn't have to kill everyone to be extremely bad and worth avoiding. I spend a lot of my time thinking about risks from nuclear and biological weapons, and downplaying these risks is not my purpose. One problem with assuming nuclear war kills everyone is that this discourages anyone from preparing for…

Yes, the topic of the article is human extinction, and one can be pedantic and say, why stray off topic? However, conceptually close is near-extinction, with unfathomable suffering and waste, destruction of nearly all human culture, nearly all humans, and nearly all plant and animal life. It's worth a sentence or two to mention this in the article, to avoid confusion on the part of the reader that the author wishes minimize the negative effects of nuclear war - which would perhaps make it more acceptable in a way.

That said, the analysis seems sound, and despite the chance that the conclusion could be misconstrued or misused, it is important to remind voters graphically of the horrors of nuclear war. That's a better strategy to avoid both extinction and near-extinction, rather than counting on military planners to not overshoot their goals of near-extinction.

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#257
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Interesting, what would be your suggestions for preparing? Mine would be: AT ALL COST AVOID. (I mean it...ALL COST). This gets at the heart of existential risk. Should we abandon all technology to avoid the possibility of nuclear war and just wait for an asteroid or climate change or resource exhaustion to kill us? Nuclear destruction only gets easier over time as technology progresses. My cell phone is faster than…

You’re making the common mistake to assume AGI significantly increases the advancement of technology. If AI research has demonstrated anything it’s Intelligence doesn’t increase linearly with computation. Compare two identical chess engines where one has 10% more computational power behind it and that program has a surprisingly limited increase in ELO score. It’s seductive to think AGI will suddenly advance technolog…

> It’s seductive to think AGI will suddenly advance technology dramatically, but dumping more effort into existing technology has a bad habit of hitting diminishing returns. Ideas like nano-machines seem to have vast potential, until you realize biology is already operating at those scales and has significant limitations.

There are a few reasons to think that AGI will significantly outproduce humans; it's likely cheap to run compared to the training costs. GPT-3 can generate text quite a bit faster than a human at maybe a billionth of the cost of its training, for example. Once achieved it's likely that practical progress on a lot of problems will actually be pretty rapid. Even if we only achieve parity with human intelligence and can never improve AGI beyond that we'll experience a few orders of magnitude in speedup of research.

I think it's a little early to write off nanotechnology when we haven't seen much more than tech demos at this point. Biology is a soup of proteins using brownian motion to find reaction sites. Highly impressive and amazing to be sure but needs to be wet, fed, and in a narrow temperature band. Precision molecular engineering is a game-changer in so many ways.

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#258
To be honest, this article reads more like one of Randall Munroe's "what if?" posts than anything that should be taken seriously.

Is there any point in investigating the maximalist claim that a nuclear war would kill literally every person on Earth? Hundreds of millions, or perhaps billions, of deaths wouldn't be bad enough? How about the almost certain collapse of what we currently understand as "human civilization"?

What's the point of all the pedantry around calculating kinetic or radiation damage? Or the various scenarios for nuclear winter?

> The most likely outcome is that most people starve to death. Many would freeze too, but starvation is likely the greatest risk. Even in this model, it appears that in equatorial regions, some farming would still be possible, enough for some populations to survive. After a 10-15 years, agriculture in most of the world would be possible at reduced capacity.

Thank goodness, after a decade of starvation, the remaining population would be able to start growing food again :))

> There appear to be several interventions possible for reducing existential risk from nuclear war. At the policy level, a commitment from the largest nuclear powers to refrain from targeting the majority of cities would reduce risk of accidental omnicide.

The idea of a nuclear war that doesn't target cities seems, to my mind, completely implausible. Why would somebody bother to use weapons that can obliterate cities strictly on military targets? Isn't that simply overkill? Not to mention that a commitment from the largest nuclear powers to refrain from targeting the majority of cities would most likely be broken once nuclear weapons start being used. What would such a commitment even look like? We promise to only destroy Moscow and Beijing, you promise to only destroy New York and Los Angeles? Preposterous.

> Improving the maximum resilience capacity of human populations best positioned to survive a nuclear winter would also make humanity less vulnerable to nuclear winter, and could also protect against other existential threats.

I have never understood this line of reasoning. Should I be consoled by the fact that, even though billions might perish, somebody somewhere will manage to scrape by and survive the holocaust? Are we supposed to be so collectivist in thought as to disregard the obliteration of a significant part of our species, just because some other part of it might live on?

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#259
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re making the common mistake to assume AGI significantly increases the advancement of technology. If AI research has demonstrated anything it’s Intelligence doesn’t increase linearly with computation. Compare two identical chess engines where one has 10% more computational power behind it and that program has a surprisingly limited increase in ELO score. It’s seductive to think AGI will suddenly advance technolog…

> It’s seductive to think AGI will suddenly advance technology dramatically, but dumping more effort into existing technology has a bad habit of hitting diminishing returns. Ideas like nano-machines seem to have vast potential, until you realize biology is already operating at those scales and has significant limitations. There are a few reasons to think that AGI will significantly outproduce humans; it's likely chea…

Producing text more cheaply is a poor metric for technological advancement. Going to the basics of say energy production, heat engines are already close to theoretical limitations. We already have 60+% efficient power plant so nothing can double future efficiency, and even in theory hitting 100% is never going to happen. The world has better technology and more infrastructure than 10 years ago, but it’s almost entirely evolutionary not revolutionary. Even the tantalizing self driving cars in the near future come with a massive downside of congestion from cars driving without people in them.

As to nanotechnology, we already design molecules to interface with biology via synthetic drugs, so essentially biological nanotechnology is going to be about creating larger structures not smaller ones.

Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?

#260
However, the defense establishment has access to classified information and models that we civilians do not have, in addition to all the public material. I’m confident that nuclear war planners have thought deeply about the risks of climate change from nuclear war, even though I don’t know their conclusions or bureaucratic constraints.

This blinkered statement is near the conclusion of the piece.

It would be better placed near the start, so readers have a sense of the author's level of critical thinking.

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