Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
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Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
1–10 of 273 posts
Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
#2It may not wipe out human life, but it will severely disrupt the natural processes of human beings for a while, especially those who remain close to the nuclear zone.
Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
#3I really am tired of my tech career, and don't think I would mind trying to learn subsistence farming whilst trying to avoid radiation poisoning.
For more information, please consult "Nuclear War Survival Skills" by Cresson H. Kearny.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/094248701X
Also, FTA: "The Robock group’s models are probably overestimating the risk [of nuclear winter]." Citation needed, maybe?
Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
#4I really am tired of my tech career, and don't think I would mind trying to learn subsistence farming whilst trying to avoid radiation poisoning. For more information, please consult "Nuclear War Survival Skills" by Cresson H. Kearny. https://www.amazon.com/dp/094248701X Also, FTA: "The Robock group’s models are probably overestimating the risk [of nuclear winter]." Citation needed, maybe?
Well the good news is that you can start right now and don't even have to deal with radiation poisoning.
Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
#5Between the Kuwaiti oil fires of the first gulf war, and many more country-sized forest fire events, we've learned that Nuclear Winter is not a likely scenario. In fact, the very scientists who coined the term in the 1980s have backed away from it.
Nuclear war would be awful, and certainly the radioactive fallout would be bad, and the damage to thriving historical cities, not to mention the human toll. But extinction level? Unlikely.
One thing this pandemic has taught me is the resilience of the modern supply chain to huge unexpected disruption. It's much stronger in that dimension than I initially feared in early March.
Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
#6What about the Nuclear Winter effect? I would think going like 100 years without being able to grow food would cause everything but the heartiest life forms to die out including humans who are much harder to keep going than simple bacteria.
Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
#7I believe the statement was more political than actual science. Let's not blow the world up ok? Radiation is bad. Let's just agree to keep some semblance of respect for human life.
Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
#8What about the Nuclear Winter effect? I would think going like 100 years without being able to grow food would cause everything but the heartiest life forms to die out including humans who are much harder to keep going than simple bacteria.
It's mentioned in the article: their point is basically that it's unlikely, and even if it happened some people somewhere would survive.
Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
#9There are more factors in a realistic nuclear war:
- Quite a few nuclear weapons will be spent on military sites, which are often in low-population density areas.
- Quite a few nuclear weapons will be used to destroy other nuclear weapons.
- Nuclear fratricide, or nukes from the same side damaging each other in ill-coordinated explosions
- Air defence destroying at least some missiles and especially planes.
- Some bombs will be duds and fail to detonate due to bad maintenance.
Re: Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction?
#10When I think about nuclear war leading to human extinction, the first thing that comes to mind isn't any of those 3 mechanisms, but rather economic damage. Not economic damage as in "I lost my retirement investment," but as in "we can't produce enough food." I'd be worried about even much smaller and less deadly nuclear wars leading to massive civil unrest and breakdowns in large-scale social institutions and economies. Mass starvation would be the biggest killer. But I suppose that still wouldn't likely lead to absolute human extinction, but it could certainly lead to a future civilization that is largely unrecognizable to us humans accustomed to industrial or even agricultural societies.