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It's 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better (2016)

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151–160 of 267 posts

Re: It's 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better (2016)

#151

I only get one coin out of this article, and it's got two sides: 1. Infinity is really, really big . 2. 0 is really, really small . Infinite clean energy with no cost? Nonexistent transaction costs (economics meaning)? Yeah, this is probably a very mild description of what the world might look like with those constraints removed. To me, this is the economic equivalent of a think-piece on what the world would be like…

As this interesting article points out, the surface of the earth would exceed the boiling temperature in about 400 years if we sustain 2.3% energy consumption growth over that period. Something I think a lot of techno utopians have not considered when they mention unlimited energy.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...

Re: It's 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better (2016)

#154
I have to laugh for two reasons:

- This sounds like an absolute nightmare scenario for me and most people I know.

- The year 2030 is virtually tomorrow in terms of societal progress. Nothing of the sort will happen by 2030. This is like science fiction authors of the 1970s predicting that we'll colonize the solar system by 2001.

Re: It's 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better (2016)

#155
A bigger, much bigger problem, is that having a family and raising kids is effectively being outsourced to cheaper countries.

Come to think of it, about 50 years ago you could afford a mortgage on a detached house from a single salary, where the other parent would dedicate their time to raising/teaching the kids. That would also make people need each other more, and care more about alignment of values, since that's something you want to pass to the next generation.

Currently, 2 median salaries will barely pay for your apartment rent. Worse, in many lower-level jobs you are expected to be an "independent contractor" and stitch your living from several part-time sources, multiplying commute time and draining your time and energy. And I can't even think of what all those people will have to do when the old age catches up to them to the point where the previous generation would simply retire.

Most disturbingly, many people don't seem to see a problem with it. There is a lot of activism targeting many flaws of our society, but the fact that having a family and passing your knowledge and beliefs to the next generation has become a luxury, somehow receives very little light.

Re: It's 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better (2016)

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if everyone has a baseline income, nobody does I believe the argument for UBI is based on economic utility: $1000 a month is worth more to a poor person than a rich person.

I think the counterargument is that if everyone suddenly has $1000/month more, the market will very quickly eat it all, as prices readjust to consume the extra disposable income. I want UBI to work. But I haven't heard of a good strategy to mitigate what I just described.

Though one plus side of that is that it reallocates resources from capturing the value the rich control towards capturing the value that's been distributed to the poor.

Right now few bright folks are interested in revolutionizing affordable housing, public education, or payday lending because the money's not in it. They make a lot more money advertising to the affluent class or owning a marketplace that gives them vacation rentals or cheap transportation.

If we had UBI, prices would eventually equilibrate to eat all the new disposable income, but the gold rush in the process might build a bunch more halfway-decent housing.

Re: It's 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better (2016)

#157

I only get one coin out of this article, and it's got two sides: 1. Infinity is really, really big . 2. 0 is really, really small . Infinite clean energy with no cost? Nonexistent transaction costs (economics meaning)? Yeah, this is probably a very mild description of what the world might look like with those constraints removed. To me, this is the economic equivalent of a think-piece on what the world would be like…

Yeah, it has a strange sense of economic blindness. The article seems to think that the big innovations they're talking about are "renting clothes by the day," or "everyone uses driverless cars," but in reality the innovation is in how the economy doesn't need money to function.

Like, I get that this is a post-automation utopia, but at no point in history has capitalist automation ever meant that people need to do less work. It has always meant that people lose their income and go hungry. "We created a society which encourages people to innovate & pitch in without punishing them when they don't work" is, sociologically speaking, a much more interesting and important development than "the algorithm recommends me clothes in the morning."

The most interesting thing is that the author seems not to realize that this all entails an end to capitalism. They say things like "my living room is used for business meetings when I'm not there," but what business meetings? How is anyone making money in a society where everything's free? If no one's making money, is it even a business? Does everyone do it purely out of passion? Or do we needed some form of soft incentive for people to be involved in the economy? What form would that take?

This article raises a million interesting questions, but seems interested only in entertaining the most boring ones, like "how would algorithms be involved with this?" and "what if I had no privacy?"

It's as if they picture every business being like Gmail, where it's free because that's in the interest of the service provider. But Google still needs to turn a profit from somewhere. It' can't be Gmails all the way down. He's trying to propose communism, but imagining that that would merely entail businesses gradually reducing all their prices down to zero for some unexplained reason.

Re: It's 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better (2016)

#158
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The very cynical counter argument is rarely spoken: Owning my things provides value even when I’m not using them, because I benefit from excluding other people (my competition) from using them. Example: The sports car locked in my garage helps keep sports cars away from other people, which maintains their benefit of conferring status. It provides utility even if I basically never drive it. This side of human nature i…

It’s not even just exclusion. Can you imagine the scheduling nightmare this would induce? Your personal life would be run minute to minute by your calendar. Any time you wanted to do anything it would either have to be booked in advance or you’d have to wait for delivery. This article seems to be written from the perspective of someone who likes spending their time in coffee shops and riding their bike around in circ…

I do not like the future described in the article... but the scheduling nightmare is not currently the reality with by-the-minute cars, bikes, scooters, meals, groceries, apartments, personal tech, server infra, or home services. What makes you think it would be for other classes of product?

If anything it's done away with some of my previous scheduling constraints. No more oil changes or tire rotations! No more grocery trips! Etc etc.

Personally I don't like it because in a renter world, the owners have an extraordinary amount of power.

Re: It's 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better (2016)

#159
post #132

I've seen this article reach the front page many times and I laugh every single time. There's too many golden lines. > First communication became digitized and free to everyone. Then, when clean energy became free, things started to move quickly. > Transportation dropped dramatically in price. It made no sense for us to own cars anymore, because we could call a driverless vehicle or a flying car for longer journeys w…

What is interesting is that how much of the economy would have to lose most or all revenue for this model to work. Shrinking GDP is very hard to pull off.

"Shrinking GDP is very hard to pull off". Isn't that what's happening right now? With govt's carpet bombing their economies through lockdown?

Re: It's 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better (2016)

#160
post #132

I've seen this article reach the front page many times and I laugh every single time. There's too many golden lines. > First communication became digitized and free to everyone. Then, when clean energy became free, things started to move quickly. > Transportation dropped dramatically in price. It made no sense for us to own cars anymore, because we could call a driverless vehicle or a flying car for longer journeys w…

What is interesting is that how much of the economy would have to lose most or all revenue for this model to work. Shrinking GDP is very hard to pull off.

> Shrinking GDP is very hard to pull off.

??? We easily managed this year.

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