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One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

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Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#21

Post by ffggvv »

rootusrootus wrote: post #18

Maybe it doesn't really matter much. I mean, sure, we need some amount of polling because it informs decisions such as who gets to participate in televised debates, etc. But other than that, what does the general public get out of polling? It's a spectator sport. In the end, all that matters is the votes, and people should really be encouraged to remember this. I'd think 2016 and 2020 would be a healthy reminder of t…

i could picture polling having an effect of suppressing the vote such as in 2016. where one side doesnt feel the need to vote since their candidate is the clear favorite.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#22

Post by shinjitsu »

twelfthnight wrote: post #13
kanox wrote: post #11

TL;DR: People lie to pollsters.

> People tell the truth, when you ask them who they’re voting for. They really do, on average. The reason why the polls are wrong is because the people who were answering these surveys were the wrong people. The takeaway from the article is not that people lie, but just that people who are more trusting (according to the GSS survey) are more likely to take surveys and are also more likely to vote Democratic.

Especially if those polled fear for their jobs if they answer the 'wrong way' in the poll and others find out about it: https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324807776510595078 -> https://www.trumpaccountability.net/

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#23

Post by ianleeclark »

0x53 wrote: post #3

One of the biggest issues I think is that the polling is still done by just randomly calling people. I think I agree that there is a large skew introduced by the simple fact of only reaching people willing to answer a call from an unknown number.

The thing that not enough people bring up is the rampant robocalling. Before I left the US around a year and a half ago, I was getting 2-3 calls a day. Basically, if I ever got a call from a number not in my contact list, I would never answer. I know I'm not the only one like this, but I don't have any numbers to back it up. Even in Germany where robocalling seemingly doesn't exist, I still have this reflex, so it makes me seriously consider the validity of any phone-based polling.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#24

Post by x87678r »

I think no one really knows what the different parties represent any more. Most people I know voted Republican were low-wage working people, where my highly paid educated friends voted Democrat. Isn't it supposed to be other way around? No wonder everyone is confused.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#25

Post by bryanlarsen »

gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #15

It seems obvious to me that there was massive bias in media towards Biden, and they all happily accepted the narrative that Biden would win in a landslide and dismissed anyone saying otherwise as know-nothings. IMO that's tantamount to election interference, if there's near unanimous media coverage for the entire election season of inaccurate polling that assumes a landslide Biden victory. I didn't vote for Biden or…

If the media should be giving equal status and weight to all the parties, what about the Libertarians and the Greens?

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#26

Post by ARandomerDude »

twelfthnight wrote: post #13
kanox wrote: post #11

TL;DR: People lie to pollsters.

> People tell the truth, when you ask them who they’re voting for. They really do, on average. The reason why the polls are wrong is because the people who were answering these surveys were the wrong people. The takeaway from the article is not that people lie, but just that people who are more trusting (according to the GSS survey) are more likely to take surveys and are also more likely to vote Democratic.

> people who are more trusting...are also more likely to vote Democratic

I think this is built into the fabric of political views. If you're cautious about other people's motives, you'll want smaller government (less authority over you). The more you think folks are generally trustworthy, the less you'll fear having a larger government.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#27

Post by TechBro8615 »

x87678r wrote: post #24

I think no one really knows what the different parties represent any more. Most people I know voted Republican were low-wage working people, where my highly paid educated friends voted Democrat. Isn't it supposed to be other way around? No wonder everyone is confused.

It’s pretty obvious from election maps and donor data that the democrats are now the party of coastal/urban elites, despite what they may advertise.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#28

Post by wavefunction »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #25
gnusty_gnurc wrote: post #15

It seems obvious to me that there was massive bias in media towards Biden, and they all happily accepted the narrative that Biden would win in a landslide and dismissed anyone saying otherwise as know-nothings. IMO that's tantamount to election interference, if there's near unanimous media coverage for the entire election season of inaccurate polling that assumes a landslide Biden victory. I didn't vote for Biden or…

If the media should be giving equal status and weight to all the parties, what about the Libertarians and the Greens?

And the Communist and Constitution Parties.

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#29

Post by wbeckler »

Here's another explanation, pre-election, of the gap, the found that Trump voters are more likely to lie to pollsters: https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-p...

These pollsters agreed with this phenomenon, arrived at from a totally different direction: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls...

Re: One pollster’s explanation for why the polls got it wrong

#30

Post by TechBro8615 »

jonplackett wrote: post #19

When and where was the last poll that predicted an election accurately? Polling is starting to feel more like a weather forecast - presented with absolute certainty, only right about half the time.

Trafalgar group did a pretty good job this election. They were also lambasted by Democratic media and called wackos and nutjobs. Meanwhile WaPo put its name on a poll that had Biden +17 in WI.
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