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Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#391

Post by remote_phone »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305
lbeltrame wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

It can’t die out on its own. Animals are getting infected by it, meaning it will be around forever. But as long as we can tolerate it, that’s all that matters.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#392

Post by k__ »

A friend of mine (who is a nutjob), said a few months ago that even if the vaccine doesn't work, they can say it would work 80-90%, because that's the amount of people who don't show symptoms anyway.

I don't know anything about this, but now it happened in a way he said, so what do professional here think about this?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#393

Post by abeppu »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305
lbeltrame wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

I think we can control it well with a vaccine and contact tracing. But though this is not my area, I've heard experts say that "eradication" is unlikely, in that we've still only actually eradicated one human viral disease. But if covid-19 was well enough controlled that most of us wouldn't come across an infected person in normal life, or need to think about it for months or years at a time ... I think that's good enough for most of us to think of it as "gone".

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#394

Post by bloak »

According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine#Clinical_tria...) there are 8 COVID-19 vaccines in phase 3 trials. A week or so ago I read about an experiment in Brazil that compared 5 of them. So this Pfizer press release doesn't seem terribly exciting to me. I already knew it was very likely that at least one vaccine will be available to some people in a month or so.

I know a couple of people who are experimental subjects in COVID-19 vaccine trials (meaning that they may or may not have received a COVID-19 vaccine: it's double-blind, of course). It's an interesting question what happens to those people if they become elligible for real vaccination before the trial they are participating in has come to an end.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#395

Post by charlesdm »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #385
charlesdm wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is great and all, and I'm not against vaccinations, but is this safe long term? Am I the only one here who doesn't want to get inoculated in basically the first batch?

Have there historically been issues with vaccines causing problems for the long term that didn't show initially? I've never heard of such a thing, but then again I have only a surface understanding of vaccines.

I have no idea, that's why I am asking. I'm hoping someone could clarify with decent knowledge on the matter.

I vaguely remember this story (from years ago) about a drug or vaccine during the 70s, where apparently everything was fine but then kids (or kids of kids, can't remember) ended up with birth defects.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#396

Post by 317070 »

stu2b50 wrote: post #373
317070 wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a source for this? I am curious if this is true.

Quick Google seems to indicate it's true. >Pfizer said it will wait until after the US election to file its COVID-19 vaccine with the US regulator, as it awaits important safety data to become available. https://pharmaphorum.com/news/pfizer-to-wait-until-after-ele...

Yes, but if you read the source [0], they will wait until after the US election, but not for reasons related to the US election. Just because they expect their results to arrive after the US elections.

It's like saying that I will wait to have a baby until after the holiday period. Factually correct, but that baby will arrive in January irregardless of the holiday period. The holiday period is for sure not the reason for the baby to arrive in January.

[0] https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_p...

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#397

Post by lbeltrame »

thelittleone wrote: post #360
garethrowlands wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corona viruses cannot mutate as efficiently as flu. They are very different beasts.

17 million mink culled in Denmark for mutated Covid which was passed on to humans. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmar...

This vaccine targets the entire spike protein. It is very difficult, from an evolutionary point of view (very high affinity for the ACE2 receptor), that the spike protein would change so much that the vaccine would be completely ineffective.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#398

Post by bluGill »

pmachinery wrote: post #348
sambeau wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+ ~90% of individuals achieve immunity It could also refer to 90% reduced severity. A 60% vaccine can reduce the severity of the illness by 40% so only 40% of the expected number end up in hospital.

The first line of the article states: "The first effective coronavirus vaccine can prevent more than 90% of people from getting Covid-19, a preliminary analysis shows."

Problem is it is all from a press release. They can mangle words to be correct but very misleading. We will have to wait for the scientific paper which will take some time.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#399

Post by TulliusCicero »

matz1 wrote: post #334
MichaelApproved wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How dangerous did you assess it to be?

Vast majority of the cases are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms.

I don't think anybody disputes this.

But each new person who gets it is a potential spreader, which increases the likelihood of an at-risk person getting it. Someone who may be elderly or immunocompromised, who can be seriously hurt or killed by it.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#400

Post by _Microft »

benlumen wrote: post #362
matz1 wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then either do it anyway or go protest. See grandma regardless, its not like grandma will surely die if you meet them. Grandma, due to old age has high chance to die anyway regardless of the covid or not, better meet them and spend quality time with them with the time they have now.

Oh bugger off, I'm not getting into the ins and outs of the safety protocols I've been observing my for seeing my grandmother on hacker news. I'm relieved about the vaccine. You do you.

I am as happy about the progress as you are, don't let these people bother you. I would also not endanger anyone else by giving in to my impulses for the instant gratification of having a beer with some buddies. This is going to be over one day and all we need to do is not make things worse in the meantime.

(Behaviour in these times seems to be a good indicator who has got some self-control and who has not, I think)

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