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Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

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Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#51

Post by threeseed »

joshuaheard wrote: post #39
refurb wrote: post #28

The author’s analysis seems a bit one sided. He speaks of poor turn out in LA, because of the electoral college system which means additional democratic votes don’t matter. Then speaks about the same lack of Democratic turnout in Texas, because it always go Republican (again, due to the electoral college). But wouldn’t those same effect apply to Republicans as well? They don’t bother to vote in CA because there is a…

I saw the same thing. He says Democrats won't vote in California because they know they are going to win, and Democrats don't vote in Texas because they know they are going to lose. I think it would apply equally to both parties. I was surprised to see this article on HN, since most other statistical election fraud analyses I have seen are being dismissed as conspiracy theories. Facebook even censored one of them. I'…

The issue is that the US has not officially selected a President yet.

So Facebook, Twitter etc are being prudent and not allowing misinformation until that is the case. And I've yet to see any fraud analysis that is coming from reputable sources i.e. not Gateway Pundit or 4chan so it makes sense to err on the side of caution.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#52

Post by Terrario »

nanny wrote: post #41
Terrario wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the country is not a union of people of different ages and professions, but of different states, technically. The electoral college is a form of protection for the naturally less densely populated agrarian states against the densely populated urban ones. Without the electoral college, the colonies would not have agreed to unite under a shared federal government.

>The electoral college is a form of protection for the naturally less densely populated agrarian states against the densely populated urban ones. This is commonly repeated, but it's BS. What "protection" does the electoral college give to Kansas, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Idaho, or Montana? Presidential candidates don't pay any attention to any of those "less densely populated agrarian states". In addition, dense states…

> What "protection" does the electoral college give to Kansas, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Idaho, or Montana?

Their collective voice along with the rest of the “heartland” is the backbone of the GOP. Trump and Bush both won without the popular vote because the electoral college amplified their collective voice.

The electorate doesn’t make them win, it gives them better odds. The campaign focus on swing states should explain itself...

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#53

Post by gloryless »

This is damn interesting. I've seen a couple reads on the Russian elections but never seen it turned to the US. I think it would have to get a deeper analysis with more fine grained data but seems like it's got some solid indicators one could follow.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#54

Post by tastyfreeze »

nanny wrote: post #41
Terrario wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the country is not a union of people of different ages and professions, but of different states, technically. The electoral college is a form of protection for the naturally less densely populated agrarian states against the densely populated urban ones. Without the electoral college, the colonies would not have agreed to unite under a shared federal government.

>The electoral college is a form of protection for the naturally less densely populated agrarian states against the densely populated urban ones. This is commonly repeated, but it's BS. What "protection" does the electoral college give to Kansas, Wyoming, the Dakotas, Idaho, or Montana? Presidential candidates don't pay any attention to any of those "less densely populated agrarian states". In addition, dense states…

How about renegotiating the number of electors to be equal per state. If we are a republic of states each state should get equal say. By going to popular vote a third of the country loses a voice.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#55

Post by gfxgirl »

IfOnlyYouKnew wrote: post #30
nl wrote: post #6

Am I the only centre-left type person in the world who thinks the Electoral College isn't a bad thing (in theory at least). In the Westminster 2-house system in Australia voters vote for representation from their seat. These seats have approximately the same number of people, but they also vote for an upper-house representative and the smaller states are over-represented in terms of population. This is because otherw…

This entirely vacuous argument is surprisingly popular. Possibly because it gets mixed up with a related, more convincing one. It can never be right to assign the majority of power to a minority of voters. If giving that power to the majority means they can only govern for the majority, then the opposite also holds true: governments elected by a minority can govern for only that minority. And that would seem to be ev…

So from your description it sounds like you believe any work to help minorities have a voice is wrong. For example at one point redistricting was pushed by various people to help give minorities enough collective voice to have some influence.

To put it another way. Let's says there are 10 seats representing 1000 people. Those 1000 people are 15% A and 85% B and spread out into 10 districts of 100 people each where no district has more than 20% A. By that, A can never get any representation where as if they let A form a group they can likely get 1 of seat of those 10 representatives and at least have a voice.

That kind of thing has been done in many different ways but your post seems to suggest you think it's wrong.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#56

Post by mistermann »

threeseed wrote: post #51
joshuaheard wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw the same thing. He says Democrats won't vote in California because they know they are going to win, and Democrats don't vote in Texas because they know they are going to lose. I think it would apply equally to both parties. I was surprised to see this article on HN, since most other statistical election fraud analyses I have seen are being dismissed as conspiracy theories. Facebook even censored one of them. I'…

The issue is that the US has not officially selected a President yet. So Facebook, Twitter etc are being prudent and not allowing misinformation until that is the case. And I've yet to see any fraud analysis that is coming from reputable sources i.e. not Gateway Pundit or 4chan so it makes sense to err on the side of caution.

> So Facebook, Twitter etc are being prudent and not allowing misinformation

Do these censors have the means to determine what is and is not "misinformation"?

Do we have comprehensive insight into to what volume and types of censorship are (or are not) happening behind closed doors at the various social media companies?

> And I've yet to see any fraud analysis that is coming from reputable sources i.e. not Gateway Pundit or 4chan

Do we have comprehensive insight into to what volume and types of censorship are (or are not) happening behind closed doors at the various social media companies?

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#57

Post by TechBro8615 »

save_ferris wrote: post #27
ve55 wrote: post #12

What I dislike about a lot of these potential fraud analysis techniques is that if a group that was performing fraud was aware of them, then they would simply perform the fraud 'properly' such that the given technique(s) don't show evidence (since they know what others are looking for and hoping to find, they simply ensure it isn't there). The same goes for similar techniques like Benford's law: once you know about t…

One very important point to consider in all of this is that the states administer their own elections and election processes directly. While this makes unifying the voting system practically impossible, it prevents a singular federal authority from directly interfering in the electoral process. I don't think we can safely assume that a president or any other federal authority should have the power to oversee any aspe…

Sure, but 25+ states are using the same hardware/software from a single vendor (Dominion).

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#58

Post by crobertsbmw »

alisonkisk wrote: post #16
ve55 wrote: post #12

What I dislike about a lot of these potential fraud analysis techniques is that if a group that was performing fraud was aware of them, then they would simply perform the fraud 'properly' such that the given technique(s) don't show evidence (since they know what others are looking for and hoping to find, they simply ensure it isn't there). The same goes for similar techniques like Benford's law: once you know about t…

Smart careful criminals are smart and careful. Most criminals are stupid or lazy.

What a fun thing to say.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#59

Post by tastyfreeze »

maxerickson wrote: post #49
tastyfreeze wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been thinking that maybe states should get an equal number of electoral votes. We would get the protection of the electoral college and every state would have an equal say.

That would be less democratic (small d) than the current system. Do you have some reason that Wyoming should actually have an equal say with New York or Texas or Florida or California?

Because they are all states that should have an equal say in what president is elected. A republic of states is beholden to the states. Each state is beholden to its population.

Re: Looking for Voter Fraud (In Old Elections) with Data Visualization

#60

Post by yongjik »

Terrario wrote: post #25
alisonkisk wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't people in California deserve a means to influence the presidency as much as Montana or DC?

California has 55 votes, Montana and DC only have 3 each. Is that not enough influence? Cali and NY make up almost a third of the electoral votes. Is it really fair for these two places to control and dictate the policies of a country spread as far and wide as the US? Hasnt the blue/red divide, not only in the country but within states themselves show that the desires and attitudes of people are heavily influenced by…

> California has 55 votes, Montana and DC only have 3 each. Is that not enough influence?

No, California and DC always vote Democrat, and Montana always vote Republican. Individual Republicans in CA and Democrats in MT have zero voice - their voices literally don't matter. In fact, even Democrats in CA and Republicans in MT have zero voice - because these states' outcome is predetermined, no presidential candidate has any incentive to promise anything for them.

Not convinced? Just look at the map for 2016 presidential campaign - https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/campaign-events-2016

No places should control an election. People should.

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