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Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

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Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#621
Since the oil embargo of 73-74[0], which was caused by the 'Arab-Israeli War', securing the oil supply from the Middle East has been a top priority of the US government. The embargo highlighted how vulnerable the US was to the Middle East. Since then, 'Peace in the Middle East' has been a plum goal of successive US administrations. President Carter was able to get a peace agreement between Israel and Egypt[1] which contributed to his ultimately winning a Nobel prize[2].

Succeeding administrations failed to gain additional peace and instead leaned on regime change in an attempt to oust unstable governments and seat US-friendly, stable regimes. This approach failed in principle: Regime change itself did not lead to stability. But instead, led to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and ultimately, it was the protracted presence of US troops in those nations that provided stability. That stability was paid for with the lives of US soldiers put in harms way of militants from both within those nations and from outside of them.

Under Obama, two threats emerged: ISIS and an emboldened Iran. ISIS went from a 'JV Team', to controlling an area the size of Pennsylvania, spanning Iraq and Syria[3]. Iran was granted an agreement to suspend weapons-grade nuclear research until 2031 [4]. Iran may or may not be complying with the agreement, but it was known that they were causing instability throughout the Middle East, funding ISIS, Hezbolah, and planning and funding ambush attacks on US troops throughout the region[5].

This was the situation in January 2017.

Reviewing what the current administration has done since taking office, the coordinated and deliberate steps, and the results, have been astonishing, given the intractable and largely unsuccessful efforts to stabilize the region over the last 50 years:

a. Established 'energy independence' by modifying US regulations on production of oil, natural gas and coal. The US became a net exporter of energy, reducing the leverage that the Middle East states have over the US[6].

b. Moved the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and recognize the Golan Heights as Sovereign Israel territory. This worked to gain trust from Israel, improving their willingness to participate in peace agreements. [8]

c. Coordinated with Russia to eliminate ISIS. It was completely eradicated, including US Special Forces killing the leader and founder, Al-Baghdadi[10].

d. Withdrew from the Iran Nuclear accord, and renewed sanctions against Iran. The funds provided by the accord likely were used in part to fund their terror activities.

e. Killed General Soleimani, who was know to be the mastermind and source of funding for terrorism throughout the Middle East, directed not just at US, but other Arab States as well. [7] d. and e. illustrated to the Arab States that the US was willing to take decisive action to quell the regional threat that Iran posed.

f. Withdrew troops from Syria, extricating the US from that war zone, after ISIS was defeated.

g. Begin withdrawing troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. Most Arab countries want the US out so they can self-govern again.

h. With the above puzzle pieces in place, the administration rapidly concluded peace agreements between Israel and three Arab states: United Arab Emirates, Bahrain [9] and later, Sudan. Other countries are said to be joining soon.

i. Earned 2 Nobel peace prize nominations for the peace agreements (for 2021, winners will be announced next September).

Reviewing this timeline, and the magnitude of this achievement, it's hard to square the approach and its success against the claims of ineptitude leveled.

[0] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo

[1] https://www.history.com/news/jimmy-carter-camp-david-accords...

[2] https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2002/carter/facts/

[3] https://abcnews.go.com/International/isis-years-jv-team-inte...

[4] https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/122460/full-text-of-t...

[5] https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2...

[6] http://tiny.cc/oilexport

[7] http://tiny.cc/defang

[8] http://tiny.cc/Embassy

[9] http://tiny.cc/mideastpeace

[10] https://www.njhomelandsecurity.gov/analysis/tag/Abu+Bakr+al-...

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#622
What kinds of investments can one make to capitalize on a Biden victory? For example:

* If Biden will be weak on China, do we expect Chinese tech companies to perform well and if so, how can we get exposure to that? Some China tech ETF?

* Biden will likely support a lot of green endeavors, and so Green ETFs could be a good BUY.

* If there is a blue sweep, then there could be a massive stimulus, which would mean lots of money slushing around in the market. Maybe QQQ is a good BUY.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#623

No: he hasn't, and that's confusing to both "the world" as well as waaay too many Americans: the election isn't until mid December, when the electoral college casts its votes. You didn't vote for the president, you voted for what your state will try to vote for in December. Unfortunately, state representatives in the presidential election are not universally required to vote along the state election result, and while…

What is more likely is that some vote recount changes things. It is highly unlikely that an ejector will change their mind.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#624

The thing that will sit deep within me for at least the next few years is that, no matter how you slice it, a vote for Trump is complicit acceptance of his divisive and harmful behavior. Of course you don't need to be a racist to vote for Trump, but you do need to fear the other options so much that you agree that his behavior and the way that he represents our country to the rest of the world is tolerable compared t…

Wow. I'm used to the idea of republican physicians, but one who'd genuinely believe in a VP plot to steal the presidency to establish socialism is... surprising and scary.

Where do you think she got the ideas? Fox? Other media outlets? Or does the sewer link into social media have an unknown source?

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#625
post #616

Regardless of media projections (and we know how accurate projections have been the last few years), it's simply not true that Biden has won . No one has yet won. No one will have won the election until states certify their counts. It'd be nice if the counts, and recounts, were already completed. (Florida, of the "hanging chad" debacle, actually finished its count within hours in this election. Why did these less pop…

That has also been true of every election in the past that has been called by the media before the election has been formally certified. In a typical election, the media would call it, the loser would offer up a concession speech, and only then the winner would declare victory. Even Hillary did that back in 2016, it probably won’t happen like that in 2020 for the first time in recent history for reasons.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#626

It's amazing. My friends on the left think the only reason for voting trump is racism, and friends on the right think the only reason for voting biden is socialism. Where did all the intellect go? The social dilemma documentary I think is very useful. It feels like social media bubbles are a large component, although of course there have been many contentious elections in the past. Being centrist I can relate to part…

The thing with the racism and Trump is it's part of his platform. You have to think it's ok to vote for him. There is no half measure of racism.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#627
post #616

Regardless of media projections (and we know how accurate projections have been the last few years), it's simply not true that Biden has won . No one has yet won. No one will have won the election until states certify their counts. It'd be nice if the counts, and recounts, were already completed. (Florida, of the "hanging chad" debacle, actually finished its count within hours in this election. Why did these less pop…

Ballots take weeks and in some cases months to count. We’re all familiar with projecting/crowning a winner with the understanding that it could change. But the way we use won in almost all competitive contexts involve a high likelihood estimation. Including ‘winning’ a contract/deal, winning a race, etc. New information can affect outcomes.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#628

My biggest concern is how seemingly so many conservative people are becoming huge conspiracy theorists. I don't mean normal conspiracy theories like there being something more behind the JFK assassination, but like QAnon, Bill Gates injecting people with microchips, Pizzagate, etc. A lot of people in my own family in a rather backwards state believe that stuff. It's making me completely lose faith in this country and…

What’s hilarious with your position is that your “side”, the liberals, is perceived to be immune the conspiracy theories. For example, like how QAnon is widely believed throughout the conservative community. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/30/qanons-cons...

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#629

The thing that will sit deep within me for at least the next few years is that, no matter how you slice it, a vote for Trump is complicit acceptance of his divisive and harmful behavior. Of course you don't need to be a racist to vote for Trump, but you do need to fear the other options so much that you agree that his behavior and the way that he represents our country to the rest of the world is tolerable compared t…

If you feel that way it may be a sign that you are too far into your own "filter bubble". I'm not saying those views are reasonable, but they are easier to contemplate if you swim in a sea of right-wing viewpoints, some of which actually make some sense. Read Fox News, The Federalist, etc., hangout on r/Conservative, follow the YouTube right-wing rabbit-hole a ways, and you will be really pissed off but probably have a better sense for how people can get sucked into that kind of worldview. My experience is that it takes constant effort to avoid capture by the "default" left-leaning viewpoint that comes through most mainstream news sources. I live in a place where I am exposed to the Trump viewpoint only rarely, and I found myself aghast at some friends who said they were thinking about voting for Trump. But when they explained their reasons for it, it was clear we weighed the importance of things differently, but their reasoning made a lot of sense. But my initial reaction had been outright rejection, like an immune system fighting an invader.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#630

My biggest concern is how seemingly so many conservative people are becoming huge conspiracy theorists. I don't mean normal conspiracy theories like there being something more behind the JFK assassination, but like QAnon, Bill Gates injecting people with microchips, Pizzagate, etc. A lot of people in my own family in a rather backwards state believe that stuff. It's making me completely lose faith in this country and…

Did the president merely tap into this simmering sentiment, or did he inflame it?

Recently, Glenn Greenwald wrote about the reluctance of large news organizations to even mention the Hunter Biden laptop story.

https://greenwald.substack.com/p/my-resignation-from-the-int...

As someone who sees this story as hard to believe for a number of reasons, the broad resolve among large news organization to avoid that story raises some serious questions in my mind.

This is not how the press is supposed to work. And it's definitely not how the press reacted to the Steele Dossier, which has similar problems with provenance of information and motivation.

That kind of environment in which the press seems to take sides makes fertile ground for conspiracy theories. If you can't trust the press to be unbiased, then how can you believe anything they say? Along comes someone who claims to have all the answers and away you go, full speed to QAnon Station.

A lot of people believe the Russia investigation was in fact its own form of conspiracy theory, cooked up by a party outraged that it lost an election it thought it had in the bag.

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