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Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

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Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#381

I've always felt that the Trump presidency served as an effective form of "Chaos Engineering". Regardless of your views of Trump's politics, his administration and method of leadership has exposed a lot of flaws in how our government has been designed and engineered. The postmortem of the last 4 years should be analyzed deeply in order to identify the weak points in the infrastructure of our government in order to ma…

I distinctly remember a tweet from 4 years ago, "this presidency will be a test of our institutions and counter powers".

Well, this did not go _well_.

I wish a lot of luck to the Biden administration, there is a lot to rebuild. I might disagree on tons of policy topics with him but at the very least I can completely agree that he lives up to what should be the bare minimum for any president : respect the rule of law, be the president of all americans, not just the ones who voted for you, etc

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#382
Congratulations to the President-elect, and to the government workers and volunteers at all levels who tirelessly worked around the clock to ensure our elections were free and fair.

I think these next few weeks is a time for reflection, so that all of us can work hard to create the future we want. Wishing everyone well and to breathe in and out regularly, it's been a stressful year.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#383
post #293

Just curious. Does anyone have a reasonable response to the following contention: Trump claims to have engineered the world's greatest economy, but in fact he has just benefitted from the Fed holding rates artificially low in spite of an ongoing economic expansion. In other words, he's taking credit for something he essentially had no hand in.

It's more complicated than that.

For example, rates were lower under Obama and the economy didn't perform as well.

But -- the truth is, presidents just don't matter as much as we think they do when it comes to the economy.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#384
post #332

I'd like to open a slightly different topic here which stems though from the elections of the past 20 years. Wouldn't be a big take away now the reform of the Elector College and the shift to a direct vote from the people ? As a nonUS citizen from a country in which the head of state is being elected directly from the people, I find it very unsettling that there have been cases in which the president in US elections…

The end of this video[0] explains some of the historic context:

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#385

How does this election relate to the 2000 election when all media called Gore the winner, but then in December, Bush became the president elect? https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/11/04/the... "On election night, it was unclear who had won, with the electoral votes of the state of Florida still undecided. The returns showed that Bush had won Florida by such a close margin that state law required a rec…

The sad part is that the popular vote has a much cleaner margin, and going forward this is what medias should report if people want change.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#386
post #322

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

I was talking to a US expat this afternoon. Besides the congratulations and commenting the expectations for the new administration we reflected on the damage the last 30-40 years of propaganda for individualism have made. Individuals, their inner world and potential are very important, but you have systematically mortified the importance - and the “evolutionary advantage” - of the human societal organization. Over op…

Yes, the basic human societal unit is the tribe, as evidenced by Dunbar’s number. Within tribes, interconnected extended families used to facilitate the social cohesion. In the US, both the small-scale society and the extended family have been harmed by atomizing and dispersing people for mostly economic reasons.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#387

It'd be nice to discuss whether the benford's law analysis can be reasonably applied to election returns, but any mention of it is flagged by the thought police.

Is it flagged? Mostly, I think people just don't care that much because Benford's law is a curious pattern that applies to some kinds of numbers some of the time, so it's interesting as a first diagnostic of fraud, but without an argument of why it applies to this particular kind of data, and without further investigation of what might be causing the irregularity, it's not a smoking gun by any means.

See also https://www.eipartnership.net/rapid-response/what-the-electi...

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#388
post #332

I'd like to open a slightly different topic here which stems though from the elections of the past 20 years. Wouldn't be a big take away now the reform of the Elector College and the shift to a direct vote from the people ? As a nonUS citizen from a country in which the head of state is being elected directly from the people, I find it very unsettling that there have been cases in which the president in US elections…

The Constitution of the United States is a document written to preserve co-equal sovereignty of a bunch of states that wanted to be closer to nations than provinces, while avoiding the then-very-apparent risk of centralized absolute governing authority.

The framers of the Constitution didn't get everything right, but it's very useful to keep that perspective in mind when trying to understand the form of the US government.

If you take the perspective of states as sovereign, with federation between them, then the Electoral College starts to make a lot more sense. The goal was to preserve the power of a state in the federal government, as much as to represent the collection of people from all states - both concepts were critical. The idea is that people from the nation deserve representation and that each state (and the people from that state as a sub-population) deserve representation.

If federation of states is a core concept of the subdivision of governing responsibility, then it makes sense to build a system that ensures each state has meaningful weight in the governance of that federation.

None of this is an argument for or against the Electoral College, nor should it be interpreted as arguing for the correctness/effectiveness/righteousness/morality of the institution. It is simply an attempt to share perspective to help understand why the system is the way it is.

As originally defined, the House of Representatives was the only piece of the federal government intended to directly represent the people of the nation. Senators were originally chosen by state legislatures. The Senate was intended to represent the states, not the people directly.

The Electoral College was an intermediary to represent both the states and the people - as a compromise, it has many failings that seem obvious today. There is no federal mandate as to how a state's electors choose to cast their votes. Each state is responsible for regulating its own voting - this includes how people vote and how electors are chosen and how those electors vote. It is mere happenstance that the majority of states have a winner-takes-all allotment strategy for their electors. Maine and Nebraska notably assign their electors proportionally.

It is also interesting to note that the tie-breaking mechanism for an Electoral College tie devolves to the House, not with one vote per representative, but with one vote per state. This is another example of the concept that states are a concept deserving of representation.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#389

Biden will be the First Democrat since Grover Cleveland to take office without a Democratic Senate. The House majority is smaller. So his mandate is effectively toast. Another interesting historical fact. America has never elected 4 consecutive 2 term presidents. If Trump would have been elected it would have been the first time in US history that this has happened. This election wasn't a blue wave by any means, Trum…

I wouldn't rule the GA senator red absolutely until the runoff but it does seem the more likely result to guess at the moment (IMO). Remember if the Senate is even the VP acts as tiebreaker.

Here is a useful chart for anyone wanting to look at historical senate share https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/Combined...

On the "change" side I'd throw in I'm interested to see how the FCC commissioners change over the next couple of years and what impact that has on things.

On the "not likely to happen" I never understood how packing the supreme court was supposed to be possible in the first place unless members of the court started dropping like flies all of the sudden.

Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.

#390

What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.

Yes. Probably the worst thing about this election for me is that it seems to demonstrate conclusively that 2016 was no aberration, no temporary mass hysteria, no failed experiment in electing a political outsider to “drain the swamp”. This distorted world view of us-vs-them tribalism seems to have totally consumed our political system. Objective reality is dismissed by the majority of the population—most blatantly on the right, but also, increasingly, on the left. Even more shocking to me, highly regarded election data scientists have twice now somehow been blinded to this, releasing poll after poll that fail to capture what is actually happening in the minds of the electorate.

Carl Sagan, in his 1995 book ‘The Demon-Haunted World’, wrote:

> I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

The moment he prophesied now appears to be upon us. I don’t know how we can restore this country to one where people mostly act in good faith and try to base decisions in science and fact. I see so many incredibly compassionate people supporting the most despicable politicians. Right-wingers on Twitter repeating false talking points that the left are trying to destroy the country while tweeting about how proud they are of local youth offering free lawn care to disabled and senior citizens. Left-wingers openly insulting rural and conservative people as the scum of the earth while relentlessly supporting policies intended to improve those same peoples’ lives. How does this happen? What do we have to do—as individuals, as nations, as humans—to get it to stop?

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