Trump has changed American politics forever and we'll see that in the years to come.
Party realignments do happen. Trump did that to a certain extent, but what happens next will be up to others.
Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
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Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#342I'd like to open a slightly different topic here which stems though from the elections of the past 20 years. Wouldn't be a big take away now the reform of the Elector College and the shift to a direct vote from the people ? As a nonUS citizen from a country in which the head of state is being elected directly from the people, I find it very unsettling that there have been cases in which the president in US elections…
Nah. A popular vote is like two wolves and a lamb voting on what's for dinner.
System's working as intended.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#343The media doesn't have a role in declaring victory in elections.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#344Looks like Biden would be able to fulfill his promise of not changing anything:
https://www.salon.com/2019/06/19/joe-biden-to-rich-donors-no...
If the same situation persists in 2016 like the deep economical divide, we may even see another Trump like figure rising
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#345What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.
From what I see, the polarization is continuing to grow, and with Trump grabbing 70 million votes even when his gov failed majestically at beating the virus, the next few years is going to ne interesting.
Most people I know are happy and celebrating, but I can't seem to get that worked up. Certainly I'm glad Trump lost, but the 70M votes he got, and the fact that this was a close election... man, this country is screwed long term if we can't figure out a way to find some common ground and listen to each other. Being at each other's throats all the time will only destroy us all in the long run.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#346What is really keeping me up at night is the existential problem the US faces for the next 50 years: the ever increasingly large divide that is the polarizing of the electorate. We have to come together as Americans or someone will divide and conquer us.
I absolutely agree with you and I think we've gotten ourselves into a state where the "fix" (whatever it may be) will be so unpalatable to either party or to anybody who wants to survive in a political environment that it'll be impossible to implement.
For example, want to bring manufacturing jobs back?
1. Implement trade-protectionist tariffs and import restrictions.
2. Unionize rural workforces to make the pay and work conditions attractive.
3. Offer massive tax incentives to build manufacturing centers in rural states.
4. Reinstitute a manufacturing oriented education system that outputs ready-to-work trained trade employees.
The parties are too far apart now to be able to put in place something like this.
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#347It's amazing. My friends on the left think the only reason for voting trump is racism, and friends on the right think the only reason for voting biden is socialism. Where did all the intellect go? The social dilemma documentary I think is very useful. It feels like social media bubbles are a large component, although of course there have been many contentious elections in the past. Being centrist I can relate to part…
What is the (or your) intellectual analysis?
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#348For me the bottomline of the Trump administration is that he has started zero new wars, sparing hundreds of thousands of innocent lives. As an outsider I hope that the US will not go back to its foreign military interventions.
Are the lives saved before or after including the hundreds of thousands of covid related deaths?
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#349Biden has vowed to a group of his donor that, if he is elected, "Nothing would fundamentally change": https://www.salon.com/2019/06/19/joe-biden-to-rich-donors-no... so the title should be amended to: "Biden wins White House, effectively vowing no new direction for US".
After the l4ptop from hell was exposed, we can see he does not care for much other than continuing to enrich his family. There certainly will be new directions towards China, Middle east
Re: Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
#350On the data nerd side I continue to be shocked at how people misinterpret the certainty of polls/forecasts. Forecasts give us probability distributions based on historical polling error data. Not infallible predictions the expected value will 100% happen. It’s fairly revealing of society’s general innumeracy, just as it was 4 years ago when Trump won.
You're picking the easiest number to misread - the overall "chance of being elected", which doesn't really mean anything. Much more interesting are the direct results predictions, especially per state where they matter most. Those are polls that give a particular result with a +- confidence interval. If the polls were to any extent competently done, you expect the result to be well within that margin of error. The re…
Individual polls were sometimes outside the margin, but collectively the polls were not far off the mark and collectively they were within the margin of error. This is why sites like 538 were able to model the various outcomes with some degree of certainty and ONCE AGAIN manage to get results within the range of expected probabilities. You really seem to have a hard time understanding both polling and probability and in particular the relationship between sample size and error. I suggest a bit more research.