Earlier quoted context omitted.
except the most important thing, how to scale bitcoin.
https://lightning.engineering
vaporware
Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
51–60 of 60 posts
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's 90%+ correct. Almost all trading volume is in Tether, which is erroneously assumed to be 1:1 with usd. Once the "bank run" on tether happens it'll be revealed that most of their billions are not backed by anything and the actual btc:usd price will become clear
you're original statement was wrong, so you were wrong. Admit it and move on because changing topics midstream doesn't fool anyone and just exposes how flimsy your reasoning was to begin with.
*your
I am not changing topics, my point is that when you see a price of $15000 on the exchanges, what you are actually seeing is mostly btc/usdt pairs, that is, you are getting 15k usdt for a bitcoin, not USD. You can see it in e.g. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/markets/
It is currently pegged 1:1, so you can exchange it for actual US dollars for the most part, which allows exchanges to claim that USDT=USD and they merge them all into a single thing. But there is no reason to believe USDT is actually equal to USD as they keep printing billions of them without any proof that there's any real money behind it.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#53Earlier quoted context omitted.
To my eye, it looks like there is a plausible argument that BTC price innovations have a positive loading on Fed balance sheet growth. Can you link raw data? At this point, the marginal buyer is a leveraged investment firm. So, the hypothesis is not a crazy one.
I'm afraid I don't have the raw data.
Both are FRED series (CBBTCUSD and WALCL). Rolling one year correlations of one week deltas:
0.3 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+
+ + + + + A + + + + +
| A AA |
0.2 +-+ AA AAAAAAA+
| AAA AA AAA AA |
0.1 +-+ AAAAA AA AA A A +-+
| AAAAA AAA A AA |
| AA A |
0 +-+ A AA AA AAA +-+
| A AA A |
| A AA AAA A |
-0.1 +A+ AAA AA A A +-+
|AAA A AAAAA AAAA |
|A A A |
-0.2 A-+ AAAAA A AAA AA +-+
A AA AA AAAAA |
-0.3 +-+ AA +-+
| A |
+ + + + + + + + + + +
-0.4 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+
2017/1/1 2018/11/25 2020/10/11Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm afraid I don't have the raw data.
Both are FRED series (CBBTCUSD and WALCL). Rolling one year correlations of one week deltas: 0.3 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+ + + + + + A + + + + + | A AA | 0.2 +-+ AA AAAAAAA+ | AAA AA AAA AA | 0.1 +-+ AAAAA AA AA A A +-+ | AAAAA AAA A AA | | AA A | 0 +-+ A AA AA AAA +-+ | A AA A | | A AA AAA A | -0.1 +A+ AAA AA A A +-+ |AAA A AAAAA AAAA | |A A A | -0.2 A-+ AAAAA A AAA AA +-…
So ELI5 what I am seeing here. Aren't those correlations all over the place?
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#55Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think that's what bitcoin maximalists want to believe, but surely not true.
The total market cap of all crypto assets is less than the market cap of Tesla right now. If they are remotely right that bitcoin is a liquid inflation protected asset then the demand for such an asset should increase in a world of more and more QE from central banks.
The value of money is not linear compared to its quantity. I remember the calls for high inflation in 2009 with the banks bailout, but it didn't happen.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#56Earlier quoted context omitted.
Both are FRED series (CBBTCUSD and WALCL). Rolling one year correlations of one week deltas: 0.3 +-+----+------+------+------+------+-----+------+------+------+----+-+ + + + + + A + + + + + | A AA | 0.2 +-+ AA AAAAAAA+ | AAA AA AAA AA | 0.1 +-+ AAAAA AA AA A A +-+ | AAAAA AAA A AA | | AA A | 0 +-+ A AA AA AAA +-+ | A AA A | | A AA AAA A | -0.1 +A+ AAA AA A A +-+ |AAA A AAAAA AAAA | |A A A | -0.2 A-+ AAAAA A AAA AA +-…
So ELI5 what I am seeing here. Aren't those correlations all over the place?
Yup, that's my takeaway. You see the same thing when you use future Fed moves as well (which is one way of checking that this graph isn't missing out on some announcement effect, as assets lag announcements).
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
Someone has been licking stocks again. If I had a staoshi for each person that said it would go down! It will probably go down. It will probably go back up. It will always go back up, as long as there is a general belief in the population that the tech is worth the cost of running it. Bitcoin is valuable because it represents an immutable data store which is difficult to change - much like "stocks". The value an immu…
What’s a business model backed by ML?
Image segmentation via machine learning. Zero reason to carry an "account" to do "queries" to the models, every reason to pay for it.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
Someone has been licking stocks again. If I had a staoshi for each person that said it would go down! It will probably go down. It will probably go back up. It will always go back up, as long as there is a general belief in the population that the tech is worth the cost of running it. Bitcoin is valuable because it represents an immutable data store which is difficult to change - much like "stocks". The value an immu…
but how does this translate into bitcoin being worth hundreds of billions of dollars? PHP and Javascript are free and used way more than bitcoin, but is it worth hundreds of billions?
Sure, it's worth billions just like someone thought Uber, Groupon or WeWork was worth billions.
In Bitcoin's case, it's distributed consensus. In the case of startups, it's the investors that control consensus. In the case of the market, it's the market manipulators that do it, in conjunction with public opinion.
As long as public opinion holds that Bitcoin is valuable and it continues to be a secure solution that doesn't require edge case handling (which increases risk) then there's no reason anyone shouldn't think it's a reliable store of immutable values in the near term.
Re: Bitcoin has surpassed $15k for the first time since January 2018
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
what high fees to enter and exit. Lightning fees are very low (typically( about 0.00001 pence. Liquid is not needed for lightning. As an end user you can use a lightning wallet and enjoy fast lowest fee transactions.
You need to pay for an expensive on-chain Bitcoin transaction before you can use Lightning. You must also have enough money so you can pay for another on-chain transaction if the channel closes and you must issue a dispute to not lose your funds. Did I mention that if you open a channel to the wrong hub, you must open yet another channel, with all associated costs? It's ridiculous to even entertain Lightning as a via…
I am sorry. As a lighting wallet user, none of that is true anymore. The underlying channel management is abstracted away from the user. The experience is pleasant. I won't jump to another cryptocurrency as BTC with lightning ticks all the marks for me.
The only thing missing in the BTC ecosystem is smart contracts, but I am happy for that to be a separate ecosystem (ETH or otherwise).